LIVE MARKETS-When bonds don't cut it any more
* European stocks hold steady
* UBS (LSE: 0QNR.L - news) kicks off European bank earnings
* Wall Street futures edge up
* US 10-yr Treasury yields near 3 pct
LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity
markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her
on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
WHEN BONDS DON'T CUT IT ANY MORE (1240 GMT)
When it comes to diversifying a portfolio, bonds aren't looking like such a good option
anymore. Time (Frankfurt: A11312 - news) to go elsewhere, say Morgan Stanley (Xetra: 885836 - news) 's cross-asset strategists, who have been
hunting out decent --and cheap-- portfolio diversifiers.
"Given where global bond yields stand currently, we would need a 100bp+ fall in yields to
offset a 10% equity market drawdown in a 60/40 portfolio, taking bond yields deeper into
negative territory. This could happen, but we won't count on it," Morgan Stanley strategists say
in a note.
So where to look now? According to their COVA (correlation-valuation) scorecard, MS say that
short copper and long global utilities/staples versus the market, as well long vol strategies in
S&P 500, U.S. high yield and U.S. 10-year T-bills could be good bets.
What has surprised them most is that long large-cap versus small-cap equities has not been a
good diversifier, while the Swiss franc is now highly correlated to risk assets.
Here's the full list of MS' best diversifiers:
(Kit Rees)
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U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURIES: THE 3 PCT "MAGINOT LINE" HOLDS, FOR NOW... (1201 GMT)
U.S. 10-year treasury yields were less than a basis point from crossing the 3 percent
benchmark this morning and speculation is growing about what would happen if they broke through
that line.
One safe assumption is that there would be no shortage of voices calling the beginning of a
new bond bear market, which could drag down stock markets with it.
There's already stress on "bond proxies" across consumer staples and in the utilities
sectors today even if we're nowhere near the levels reached during the February sell-off.
"The higher U.S. yields are a pretty severe short-term headwind for equities globally as it
tightens financial conditions and sweetens alternatives," Saxo's head of equity strategy Peter
Garnry said this morning.
Rabobank analysts noted the "sudden surge higher in bond yields" and "what wobbles that
usually causes."
"We can no doubt expect another flurry of stories about the importance of the
financial-market Maginot line of 3 percent", they said noting that "the only good news in that
move is that for once we didn’t see the US yield curve flatten".
Built after the first World War, France's Maginot Line of Defense failed to keep Nazi
invaders out of France in 1940.
Early February, SocGen (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) analysts had identified the 3 percent benchmark as being the key
trigger for a bull bond market while some investors had already jumped the gun at around 2.6
percent.
For Marie Owens Thomsen, chief economist at Indosuez, "the 3% level is psychologically
important" to assess "the relative valuation advantage of the equity class versus bonds".
While investors already have earnings galore to digest this week, they might have to
reassess equity risks premiums at the same time.
Here's how 10-year yields have risen the last two years:
(Julien Ponthus)
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MIDDAY UPDATE: EUROPE SLIPS (1128 GMT)
Halfway through the session and equity indexes are pretty muted here in Europe, with the
STOXX 600 now very slightly in negative territory as the focus is firmly on earnings.
Over in the U.S., stocks futures are trading lower as investors await an update from Google
parent Alphabet (Xetra: ABEA.DE - news) .
Here's your midday snapshot:
(Kit Rees)
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UTILITY INVESTORS: "WATCH OUT FOR DRAGHI!" (1105 GMT)
With U.S. treasury yields skimming the 3 percent level to rise back to their highest in more
than 4 years, it looks like defensive stocks are again out of favour as market talk shifts back
to prospects for higher inflation and tighter monetary policies.
That inevitably is putting pressure on bond-proxies like utilities, although the
differential in monetary policies between the euro zone and the U.S. could mean European
utilities have more to lose if the market environment turns more hawkish. A first indication
could come this week when the ECB meets.
"America increased interest rates three times last year and expectations are it will do the
same this year. In Europe we must be very careful at what (ECB Chief Mario) Draghi says because
this will have an impact on valuations," says an analyst at an Italian bank.
"European utilities have generally not been impacted by any evidence of higher rates. But as
soon as interest rates start to rise, I believe there will be an acceleration of the reflation
trade," the analyst adds.
Over the last 12 months, euro zone utilities have outperformed banks, while
in the U.S. banks have outperformed utilities ( .SPLRCU), as you can see in this chart.
(Danilo Masoni)
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STREAMLINING IS KING IN EUROPEAN CORPORATE STRATEGY (0956 GMT)
More than a handful of European companies have announced asset portfolio simplifications
this year. Vivendi (LSE: 0IIF.L - news) 's sale of its Ubisoft stake, Merck (LSE: 0O14.L - news) 's sale of its consumer health business,
Standard Life Aberdeen's divestment of its Life Insurance operations are some of the examples
cited by Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS-PB - news) strategists who see this as a key theme in the region.
They've crunched the numbers to find European asset divestments were the highest in a decade
in the first quarter.
So what's motivating companies to divest and simplify? According to GS:
- exiting non-core assets on later cycle multiples to investors creates value
- focusing strategy, capital and management capacity on a core helps confront increasing
competition from EM or digital rivals
- simplifying corporate portfolios can help boost market value for some companies where
market value is trading at a deep discount to net asset value
Another clear motivating factor is companies' deteriorating returns on capital: Europe's
average CROCI (cash return of cash invested) has declined over the past years (see chart below).
Stock prices have reacted remarkably positively to divestitures and spin-offs - a sign
investors are hungry for pared-down companies.
(Helen Reid)
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IS THE SLOWING GROWTH NARRATIVE OVERDONE? (0857 GMT)
Euro zone business growth slowed again in April but remained strong, the latest Purchasing
Managers' Index survey showed earlier this morning.
"The bigger picture is that while growth might have eased somewhat in Q1 2018, fears that
the recovery has stalled are overdone," write Davy Research analysts.
Echoing this, Oxford Economics analysts say "a modest upside surprise from today's PMIs is
enough for a sigh of relief as growth does not seem to nosedive."
JP Morgan strategist Mislav Matejka is also pretty optimistic about stabilising activity
indicators. "We expect stocks to keep rebounding, bond yields to move back higher and cyclicals
to lead over defensives, helped by the likely stabilisation in activity momentum," he writes.
While today's performance is dampened by rising yields putting pressure on defensives,
Matejka reckons the reporting season should also provide support to the market.
Among interesting movers today besides heavyweight bank UBS, Rotork (Frankfurt: RO41.F - news) , which makes valves for
the oil and gas market, is surging up 8 percent after reporting strong first-quarter results - a
sign of the second-order impact of a stellar rise in crude prices.
(Helen Reid)
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WHAT TO WATCH BEFORE THE BELL (0652 GMT)
European stocks are set to rise at the start of the heaviest week of first-quarter earnings
season for Europe and the U.S.. Most of the biggest companies on either side of the pond report
this week in a results season which some investors hope will inject new life into faltering
equity markets.
Investors will be closely watching French, German, and euro zone manufacturing and services
PMIs later in the morning as the bloc’s economies have shown signs of slowing since the start of
the year.
UBS kicked off European bank earnings with strong performance from its investment
bank on higher market volatility, though the shares were seen falling at the open as the bank’s
CET1 ratio fell short of expectations.
M&A news continued over the weekend, with Canadian gaming firm Stars Group agreeing to buy
Sky Bet. The deal could move shares in the betting company’s part-owner Sky Plc (Frankfurt: 893517 - news) .
More woe for a small UK company exposed to consumers. Shares (Berlin: DI6.BE - news) in Safestyle, a maker
of double glazing windows and doors, are likely to fall sharply after warning on profit and
cancelling its dividend. It could be a further sign that consumers are cutting down on home
renovation and other big spending.
A Sunday Times report that Whitbread’s CEO believes a spin-off of its Costa Coffee
business is inevitable could, meanwhile, boost the stock by up to 5 percent according to
pre-market indications.
Overall MSCI Euro zone companies are expected to report earnings growth of 4.9 percent from
Q1 2017, according to Thomson Reuters (Dusseldorf: TOC.DU - news) data.
(Helen Reid)
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SLOWING EUROBOOM: WHAT HAS THE MARKET PRICED IN? (0615 GMT)
Manufacturing and services PMIs today will provide an opportunity to assess once again the
pace of Europe's economic growth. Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news) analysts expect the April figure to mark the
first increase in three months to levels consistent with robust GDP growth. French figures come
out at 0800 GMT, Germany's at 0830 GMT while the Euro zone figure will be released at 0900 GMT.
The market has begun worrying about an economic slowdown, Goldman Sachs analysts find. The
rise in volatility and negative year-to-date returns from most European markets are tell-tale
signs.
"Cyclical slices of the market have been mixed and more volatile recently - but do not
indicate a sharp slowdown," write Goldman's Peter Oppenheimer and team.
Interestingly in the context of trade war fears, China-exposed companies have outperformed
in Europe.
Goldman's baskets of stocks with high investment in capex and R&D have also outperformed,
while stocks exposed to the capex cycle (mostly Industrials) have done badly. But more cyclical
and global growth sensitive stocks haven't pulled back as a result of the slowing data - partly
because commodity prices have been through the roof.
Defensives meanwhile have been flat, in a sign investors are not necessarily rushing into
these high-dividend stocks for protection as readily as they used to.
"Defensives have struggled to consistently outperform and we remain generally negative given
our forecasts that bond yields will rise again, which we think will also weigh on financially
geared companies," says GS.
(Helen Reid)
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EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES MAKE GAINS (0608 GMT)
Futures for the major benchmarks have opened higher at the start of a heavy week of
earnings. There's been much anticipation of this first-quarter earnings season amid hope it
could shake stock markets out of their more cautious mood.
Futures are trading up 0.1 to 0.2 percent.
In other interesting corporate news, Franco-Dutch security firm Gemalto (LSE: 0OGA.L - news) said its
contract to make the post-Brexit British passport - which has caused controversy in the UK -
would create new jobs in the UK.
Gemalto says post-Brexit UK passport contract will create jobs, protect data
And some M&A news over the weekend: Canadian gaming company Stars Group agreed to buy Sky (Amsterdam: BK8.AS - news)
Bet from CVC Capital Partners and Sky Plc in a deal worth $4.7 billion.
Canada's Stars Group snaps up Sky Bet for $4.7 billion
EARNINGS GALORE (0547 GMT)
Of the many large-cap names reporting this week, analysts have said European banks will be
particularly in focus for any signs of strain from a slowing macroeconomic picture.
Switzerland's biggest bank UBS today kicked things off with pretty encouraging results, boosted
by higher income from its investment bank as global market volatility picked up.
Today's the start of a three-day state visit of French President Macron to the White House,
where he and Trump will discuss Iran and trade among other issues where U.S. and European views
diverge. We'll be looking out for any interesting outcomes of the meeting.
Here are some more headlines of corporate news so far:
UBS boosts Q1 earnings thanks to strong investment bank
Fresenius (Swiss: FRE-EUR.SW - news) pulls out of Akorn (NasdaqGS: AKRX - news) takeover over data integrity
Philips Q1 core profit beats estimates with 15 pct rise
Fresenius Medical cuts 2018 sales target after drug dosage shift
Fresenius Medical sells U.S. Sound Inpatient for $2.15 bln
Whitbread (Frankfurt: WHF4.F - news) boss believes Costa Coffee split inevitable - report
Air France (Paris: FR0000031122 - news) says 25 pct of flights will be cancelled on Monday
U.S. sanctions on Vekselberg have $1.5-$2 bln assets frozen -sources
MORNING CALL: EUROPE SEEN RISING AS HEAVY EARNINGS WEEK BEGINS(0533 GMT)
European shares are set to make gains this morning despite anxiety in Asian trading
overnight ahead of a busy week for earnings. This week is the busiest for both S&P 500 and STOXX
600 results, with most of the markets' biggest companies reporting.
Stocks in Asia sputtered as investors awaited a heavy week of earnings, while U.S. bond
yields rose to near peaks that have triggered market spasms in the past.
But spreadbetters' calls indicate Europe could open higher. The DAX is seen 21 points higher
at 12,561, the CAC 40 up 9 points at 5,422, and the FTSE 100 8 points higher at 7,376. Last week
European and UK shares had their fourth straight week of gains, in a sign of increasing
confidence in equity markets.
(Helen Reid)
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(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)