LIVE MARKETS-Brexit breakthrough buzz boosts markets

* European stocks rally on report EU, UK close to Brexit draft deal * STOXX 600 +1.3%, close to May 2018 highs * UK domestic stocks, Irish banks lead gains; FTSE 100 flat * Wirecard sinks after FT report * Strong earnings help Wall Street open higher Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Thyagaraju Adinarayan. Reach him on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: rm://thyagaraju.adinarayan.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net BREXIT BREAKTHROUGH BUZZ BOOSTS MARKETS (1509 GMT) A Bloomberg report suggesting that EU and UK negotiators are close to a deal has just triggered a late afternoon rally across European equity markets. Even the FTSE 100, which usually suffers from a sharp rise in the pound - as it is the case right now - is up with banking stocks, housebuilders, real estate jumping aggressively. UK domestic players specifically are having a ball, surging 4.4%. Have a look at the 20 or so biggest movers on the FTSE 100, it's like Christmas has come early: The domestically exposed FTSE 250 is also getting close to rising 2%. (Julien Ponthus and Danilo Masoni ) ***** CHART SPEAKS: EUROPE WINS THE SMALL-CAP RACE (1414 GMT) Picking a winner between S&P 500 and STOXX 600 is a no brainer, but in stark contrast to that in the small caps space it's Europe who wins it! Europe's outperformance in small caps versus the U.S. equivalent is only by a thin margin, but still it's a win, while the underperformance in the large cap space is staggering (see chart). Here's a chart with 5-year performance comparing Russell 2000 to STOXX Small 200 : (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** FOMO IN ETFS (1359 GMT) Global investors will likely invest more in Europe-listed exchange traded funds (ETF) as they fear they are missing out on opportunities across the region, says Wei Li, EMEA Head of Investment Strategy at BlackRock's iShares. "Investors hold on a lot of cash, but that may well change because of FOMO, fear of missing out, frankly," she says. Many of iShares' investors have been holding more cash because they are worried the stellar stock market rally will run out of steam as the global economy slows, ending the decade-long bull run on Wall Street. But they are starting to change their minds as they realise they missed out on good returns, Li says. And she says there is plenty of scope for growth since the European ETF market is relatively small compared with the United States where the product first launched and has been scooped up by retail mom-and-pop investors. BlackRock data shows last month marked a return for inflows into exchange-traded products listed in EMEA, with $20 billion of inflows, smashing the previous record set in July. European equity ETFs notched up the highest inflow with $3.7 billion added in September, the largest amount since February 2018. Yet, year to date inflows to European equities are still well into negative territory - down $8.3 billion - after heavy selling from March to June. (Joice Alves) ***** EUROPEAN BANKS: A (REALLY TINY) RAY OF LIGHT (1211 GMT) European banks have just made their way back to yearly gains with the sector's index up 0.3% so far in 2019 but there's actually very little to celebrate today despite JP Morgan's profit beat. Firstly, banks are still the worse sectoral performers in 2019, which is set to be the third best year of the decade for stock markets. Secondly, the research on the sector is sooooo gloomy. Lower for longer rates, poor macro and though regulation mean that their current juicy dividend yields and super low valuation are to investors what mermaids are to sailors: value traps. Keeping that context in mind, UBS analysts just published an in-depth review of the sector and looked at the impact the new banking rules out of Basel would have on their balance sheet. No spoiler here: it's not good. "In short, with capital generation generally under pressure, the application of increased capital requirements under Basel IV (the reform of Basel III) from 1 January 2022 has greater importance today than might be assumed given the still fairly distant implementation date". Key takeaway: the new rules threaten dividends, buybacks and loan growth. One tiny little ray of light could be found in a DB note which says that banks could benefit strongly by charging the cash their clients hold above the deposit guarantee limits by a few basis points. "Banks could propose that clients move the extra deposits into money market funds with low/no fees and a small positive targeted return", DB analysts believe, noting that this would allow banks to retain liquidity off-balance. A small percentage would be enough to invigorate profits and give a shot in the arm to banks' asset management businesses. With yield curve pointing out to what could be another decade of negative rates it's probably worth looking into. (Julien Ponthus) ***** THE RULE OF CASH: DAYS NUMBERED? (1123 GMT) Even though the latest BAML fund manager survey has shown that investors continue to sit on high levels of cash, the mini trade deal between Washington and Beijing and the prospect of a Brexit accord could tempt some to put their parked money at work. "We're substantially positive and ready to invest our substantial cash reserve as soon as there's a strong signal. That could an easing of trade tensions, mainly between the United States and China," says Federico Polese, founder of Simplify Partners in London. Simplify's flagship 02 fund has nearly one third allocated to cash, he adds. Back to the BAML, strategists at the U.S. bank have proposed "long stocks-short cash" as a contrarian trade, highlighting how their FMS cash rule has been in "buy" territory for 20 months, as cash levels rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.0%. The rule works like this: "when average cash balance rises above 4.5%, a contrarian buy signal is generated for equities. When the cash balance falls below 3.5%, a contrarian sell signal is generated." (Danilo Masoni) ***** IS SOMETHING GOING ON IN TELCO WORLD? (0930 GMT) Spanish phone towers firm Cellnex has scored yet another record high today after its recent cash call to fund acquisitions, African mobile networks operator Helios Towers is having a decent IPO debut in London and the sector index has quietly reached highest since Dec 2018. It looks like investors are starting to warm up somewhat to the battered telco sector, even though the industry still faces costly infrastructure upgrades and has seen growth slowed down by years of strong competition and adverse regulation. A key aspect of this tentative revival is dealmaking in mobile towers, a business that commands high multiples and is seen expanding as demand for 5G services grows, offering traditional phone groups a way to deleverage and cut costs. "Investor interest in telcos has picked up a bit. This is driven by broader macro concerns (relative defensiveness) plus scope for improvement in mobile growth and infra monetization (towers, not fibre yet)," says Credit Suisse's Jakob Bluestone. "Cellnex remains the stock where there is by far the most investor enthusiasm. Interest in the stock is wide particularly with the recent cap raise, and the consensus is there is scope for strong growth/further deals," he adds. In this 2-year chart you can see how telecoms have been underperforming the broader market, while Cellnex - a conviction buy for Goldman Sachs, clearly tells a different story. (Danilo Masoni) ***** OPENING SNAPSHOT: THAT FRIDAY FEELING (0730 GMT) A promising start for European stocks this morning with the pan-European STOXX 600 rising 0.7%, mainly driven by mid-cap UK stocks and Irish banks. It looks like a repeat of last Friday with domestically-exposed UK banks, retailers, airlines and housebuilders rising on fresh Brexit deal hopes as EU's Barnier says a deal is still possible this week. "Even if an agreement has been difficult, more and more difficult, it's still possible this week," Barnier says. Among single stocks, Wirecard is sinking 20% set for its worst day since February after the FT published documents on Wirecard's accounting practices which it alleges an effort to inflate sales and profits. Earnings check: Indivior up 10% after it raises outlook; Hays +6.5% in a relief rally after its results weren't as bad as its peers, who issued profit warnings last week; Bellway is sliding 4.6% after it reported FY results, which Jefferies says "contain little to surprise" and they believe consensus numbers for the company will come down. (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** BREXIT DEAL HOPS FUEL GAINS, BUT EARNINGS TEST KEY (0659 GMT) Brexit deal hopes again take centre stage as futures trading at European bourses point to a strong open, but the real litmus test will be in the afternoon, when some big Wall Street banks kick off the earnings season. Germany's DAX futures are up 0.6% at their highest since July 27 and the Eurostoxx futures are just shy of a two-week high. A BBC report overnight that the European Union is considering a new emergency summit to get a Brexit deal brought back optimism in markets, although London FTSE stock futures are rising just 0.3%, lagging the broader market as sterling's rally limits gains. In corporate news, Kloeckner & Co's shares are sliding 8% in pre-market Frankfurt trade after the steel company warned on profits in a latest European industrials are still suffering blows from trade tensions and faltering demand. It's a different picture at consumer-facing companies with shares in German meal-kit company Hellofresh seen up 6% after it raised its profit outlook. In the UK, dealers call British housebuilder Bellway's shares 2% higher citing positive tone in statement and the Street is divided on Hays after the recruiter reported no growth in net fees. Rivals Britain's PageGroup and Robert Walters warned on profits last week. Hard day for UK industrials: dealers call Renishaw shares down 20% after the British engineering group's profits tanked 85%, while they see Vesuvius shares dropping 10% after its profit warning. European companies with exposure to Turkey in focus after U.S. President Trump slapped sanctions. BBVA, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Telia and Lufthansa are among the top companies with exposure to Turkey. Later today, we have JP Morgan, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Blackrock kicking-off the third-quarter earnings season. Key headlines: BRIEF-Kloeckner & Co SE outlook for full year EBITDA burdened Schroders assets under management up to 450.8 bln stg at end-Sept Italy's Ferretti cuts IPO price range to 2.0-2.5 euros per share - source Indivior raises full-year revenue forecast on Suboxone strength Hays reports flat quarterly net fees African masts operator Helios Towers prices IPO at low end of range Neil Woodford's flagship Equity Income Fund to be shut down Bellway reports higher annual profit on strong demand for homes Steel trader Kloeckner cuts guidance again, shares tank Engineering firm Renishaw first-quarter profit tanks 85% (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** TENTATIVE GAINS (0532 GMT) European stocks are seen opening slightly higher on renewed hopes that Britain had a chance to leave the European Union with a deal later this week as UK-EU go into negotiations later this week. Fresh optimism was underpinned by a BBC report overnight that the European Union is considering a new emergency summit to get a Brexit deal. Citi strategists however were sceptical on a Brexit deal, saying there was "little landing space for a deal before 19th October". Financial spreadbetters IG expect London's FTSE to open 7 points higher at 7,220, Frankfurt's DAX to open 8 points higher at 12,495, and Paris' CAC to open 8 points higher at 5,651. (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** (Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Josephine Mason, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)