LIVE MARKETS-Brexit: Welcome to Groundhog Year

* European shares higher in morning trading * Pound edges as Brexit vote looms * U.S. futures trade on the upside Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Danilo Masoni. Reach him on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: danilo.masoni.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net BREXIT: WELCOME TO GROUNDHOG YEAR (1139 GMT) Pound's up, FTSE's up, FTSE 250's up: all is hunky dory as we wait to see whether we'll get a meaningful Brexit vote this afternoon. In the meantime, just a thought... Remember how the last season of Games of Thrones got lambasted by fans? Well, at least GoT, despite all its alleged faults, did have an end. The Brexit saga has its viewers begging for the whole thing to stop and losing faith in never-ending promises of 'final vote,' 'endgame,' 'make-or-break deadlines' and 'do-or-die stances' which systematically turn out elusive or just lying dead in ditches. There is indeed fresh speculation of another extension deadline to February or even June 2020 should Boris Johnson not have his way. If the threat of another eight months of Brexit action (or inaction) isn't scary enough, consider the following. Rabobank analysts reminded us this morning that even if parliament voted to seal a divorce deal with the EU, the UK could be facing another no-deal Brexit in 2020 if it failed to secure a free trade agreement in time. "The reassurances that a no deal Brexit is off the table on October 31, could wear thin very quickly if this possibility again rears up at the end of next 2020," they note. So the UK could be in the exact same situation in a year. BNP Paribas makes the same case, noting that there is no longer a 'backstop' to prevent such a turn of event. "Even if the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified in the coming days, there is the lingering possibility that the UK enters an effective no-deal scenario at the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020," the bank's analyst write. So if you're looking for the right analogy, Brexit isn't a series like House of Cards or Twilight Zone, but rather a film: Groundhog Day. Worse even, Groundhog Year. (Julien Ponthus) ***** A BIG PROBLEM WITH 2020 FORECASTS (1056 GMT) The unfolding Brexit saga may have given investors reasons to cheer about (chances of a no deal Brexit have really slimmed down) but European earnings are likely to provide food for thought on the state of the region's economy. The Q3 season starts in earnest this week and UBS says there could be some issues with forecasts for next year. "The bigger problem is the 2020 forecast: consensus is still looking for 10% EPS growth whilst our top-down models point to -4%," analysts at the Swiss bank say. More specifically on Q3 they highlight three key themes to focus on. 1. Margin pressure: "We have focussed on this theme all year and in Q2 margin downgrades were the most since the 2012 recession." 2. FX impact: "The Euro should provide a modest tailwind, but the boost for Swedish companies, who have had superior earnings over the last 2 years, may start to fade." ( 3. "Exhaustion" of downgrades on cyclicals?: "The second derivative of relative earnings momentum may have turned. Now focus will turn to price action on cyclical misses in the results season." 92 European companies, or about 19% in market cap, are set to unveil their numbers this week. (Danilo Masoni) **** OPENING SNAPSHOT: EUROPE SLIGHTLY UP, EARNINGS DRIVE TOP MOVERS (0722 GMT) European shares are positing just slight gains at the open as investors await clarity over the never-ending Brexit saga, although they remain upbeat the country would avoid a chaotic exit from the European Union. The pan-European STOXX 600 benchmark is up around 0.4%, while a fall in the sterling from recent highs is helping push the FTSE 100 up 0.5%, while the UK mid cap index is down 0.1%. Among top movers, Tomra Systems is rallying 13% to the top of the STOXX after well-received results, while Fabege is down 7.5% after its results. Prudential is falling 10% as a result of M&G's demerger. Meanwhile, Deutsche Wohnen is down 2.5% after Berlin's city government approved a plan to freeze rents in the German capital for five years. Here's your opening snapshot: (Danilo Masoni) ***** WHAT'S ON OUR RADAR: BREXIT, GERMAN REAL ESTATE (0654 GMT) European shares are expected to open slightly higher, unimpressed by the weekend's Brexit developments, as investors look upbeat that the UK would avoid a chaotic exit from the European Union, despite the fresh uncertainty following Saturday's vote in parliament. Stock index futures are trading up around 0.1%. In corporate news, the Berlin government's move to freeze rents are set to put real estate companies such as Deutsche Wohnen, Ado Properties and Vonovia under heavy pressure. In early Frankfurt trade, Deutsche Wohnen shares were down more than 5%. Still in Germany, Wirecard hired KPMG to conduct an independent audit to address allegations by the Financial Times that its finance team had sought to inflate its reported sales and profits. The report sent shares in the payments firm rising 3.9% in premaket trade. Eyes also on ProSiebenSat.1 Media after Slovak investor Patrik Tkac disclosed a 3.6% stake in the German broadcaster, a move that could rekindle talk of consolidation in the European television industry. In earnings news, Just Eat shares could be supported after the food delivery company confirmed its FY targets as Q3 revenues rose 25%, while NMC Health is also seen rising after the healthcare provider said it expects double-digit revenue and core earnings growth in 2020. Other stock movers: U.S. FDA approves AstraZeneca's diabetes drug for treating heart failure risk; Smith+Nephew CEO Namal Nawana to step down; Siemens Gamesa to buy assets from wind turbine maker Senvion; SAP in three-year cloud partnership with Microsoft; Telia proposes new chairman as pursues TV expansion (Danilo Masoni) ***** EUROPE SEEN UP AS BREXIT DRAMA UNFOLDS (0533 GMT) European shares are expected to open slightly higher, indicating that investors remain confident that Britain would avoid a chaotic exit from the European Union after its parliament forced PM Boris Johnson to seek a delay to the country's Oct 31 divorce from the bloc. Spreadbetters at IG expect London's FTSE to open 15 points higher at 7,166, Frankfurt's DAX to open 48 points higher at 12,682 and Paris' CAC to open 17 points higher at 5,653. Uncertainty over Brexit however is hear to stay and for markets that headline risk is high. On Sunday, the UK government insisted Britain will leave the EU on Oct. 31 despite Johnson being forced by parliament to send a letter to the EU requesting a Brexit delay. Over in Asia, stocks edged higher as Chinese shares reversed early losses due to hopes for progress in resolving the U.S.-China trade war. (Danilo Masoni) ***** (Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)