LIVE MARKETS-Closing snapshot: Italy outperforms again while commodities slide
* European shares steady after higher open
* Trump, Kim sign deal but few specifics
* Casino jumps on asset disposal plans
* Housebuilders, miners weigh on FTSE
June 12 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets
brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Danilo Masoni. Reach him on
Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: danilo.masoni.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
CLOSING SNAPSHOT: ITALY OUTPERFORMS AGAIN WHILE COMMODITIES SLIDE (1645 GMT)
It's been a much less bullish day than yesterday, although Italian stocks are still going
strong. Commodities have been the main culprits of the falls across European benchmarks and
especially weighing on the FTSE 100.
Meanwhile retail has been in the spotlight with Carrefour's partnership deal with Google,
and H&M shares rising up 5 percent.
Read our full market wraps here:
UPDATE 2-European shares led down by energy, mining stocks; Italy shines on
UPDATE 1-Housebuilders, miners & oil stocks weigh on FTSE 100
(Helen Reid)
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ITALY: "WE ARE LIVING DAY BY DAY" (1514 GMT)
That's what one Italian investor says, as the market gains for its second day - though we're
seeing nothing like the surge in bond and stock markets that we saw yesterday. Italy's FTSE MIB
is up 0.3 percent, outperforming European peers.
"We are still slaves to the spread and political developments, even if the situation looks a
little bit better now," says Angelo Meda, head of equities at Banor SIM.
He adds that he is still cautious on banks, especially the smaller ones. He prefers the
bigger two Intesa and Unicredit. Today bank stocks are flat,
having enjoyed their strongest day in nearly 14 months yesterday.
"We still have to see the impact on the real economy of what happened in the past week,"
Meda adds, saying he's concerned the small recovery in the Italian economy could be dented. "We
are living day by day."
(Helen Reid)
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INVESTORS STILL RELUCTANT TO BET ON DEFENSIVES (1303 GMT)
Congratulating the U.S. recovery on its ninth birthday, Rothschild Wealth Management's Kevin
Gardiner says: "The birthday party will be a subdued affair. This must be one of the most
unloved business cycles ever."
It's getting close to beating the record for longest ever expansion, yet pessimism is
everywhere - over the euro zone, trade, and geopolitics. In previous cycles, investors moved
into less growth-sensitive defensive sectors when times looked like they would get tougher - but
this time is different.
"EU uncertainty and trade tensions, in our view, warrant the use of portfolio protection,
not a more significant defensive restructuring," writes Gardiner.
Rothschild portfolio managers have been holding protection "in anticipation of some revival
in volatility," he adds. "But we still see the investment climate as a constructive one, and
stock valuations are full but not overblown: a more defensive portfolio restructuring might
leave us stranded if markets rally."
Such is the dilemma facing all investors as shares in defensives begin to rise along with
bond yields (see chart below), yet the growth picture remains, overall, strong.
BAML strategists emphasise in their June survey that despite European investors increasing
allocations to some defensive sectors, it's by no means a fully-blown rotation into defensives.
"Cyclical sector positioning has started to drop but is yet to fully catch up to growth trends,"
they note.
(Helen Reid)
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BIGGEST EVER DROP IN EUROPEAN INVESTORS' AUTOS STOCKS OWNERSHIP (1045 GMT)
Trade war fears have clearly taken their toll: BAML's European fund manager poll found the
biggest drop in autos ownership ever seen in the survey, reflecting investors' growing anxiety
over potential U.S. tariffs on carmakers. Positioning is now at its lowest in 7 years, down to a
net 15 percent underweight from a net 21 percent overweight last month.
That investors are recoiling from the autos sector isn't hugely surprising after Trump's
irate post-G7 tweets including: "I have instructed our U.S. Reps not to endorse the Communique
as we look at Tariffs on automobiles flooding the U.S. Market!"
Outside of autos, the poll revealed a pretty bleak picture for European stocks generally.
European investors' sentiment about their region's growth reached its lowest ebb since the
Brexit vote two years ago, with a net 9 percent of European fund managers see Europe's economy
weakening over the next 12 months. Their expectations for earnings also weakened with a net 18
percent expecting higher EPS growth over the next year, down from 32 percent last month.
Global investors' allocations to European stocks fell to a net 20 percent overweight, an
18-month low, and intentions to own European stocks also dropped to their lowest since the
Brexit vote with 7 percent intending to go underweight Europe in the next 12 months.
The Italian constitutional crisis made its mark, driving intentions to own Italian stocks
down to their second lowest level in four years, BAML strategists said.
Investors increased their allocations to defensive sectors food & beverages (+29%), tech
(+18%) and personal & household goods (+18%).
What would be the most important positive catalyst for risk appetite in Europe? Most fund
managers say they'd like to see evidence of 10%+ EPS growth, while the next most-cited catalyst
is a weakening in the euro.
(Helen Reid)
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EUROPEAN BROADCASTERS? "LOWER MULTIPLES ARE NOT ENOUGH" (0921 GMT)
Kepler Cheuvreux has taken a deep dive into free-to-air broadcasters and the picture that
emerges is still challenging, even though valuations have been squeezed by three years of
underperformance.
"Lower multiples late in the cycle are not sufficient, given the steady generational shift
to SVOD, though addressable advertising can enlarge the TV advertiser base and ensure long-term
survival," analysts at the European brokerage say.
"We need country (GDP growth, regulation) and structural factors (TV consumption declines)
to align with potential EPS upgrade catalysts and low multiples," they say, adding that only
France's M6 and TF1 appear to meet these criteria.
In France, they say, economic reforms, lower corporate tax, and M&A can help drive earnings
growth in the coming years.
(Danilo Masoni)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: CASINO HITS THE JACKPOT (0720 GMT)
European shares are modestly higher, up 0.3 to 0.4 percent in early trade, with autos
the top gaining sector, up 0.8 percent, recovering from yesterday's fall as trade
concerns take a back seat.
Casino is stealing the spotlight, up as much as 8 percent to the top of the STOXX
after setting out plans to sell 1.5 billion euros of assets. Some of the surge will be due to
short-covering - the stock has a 4 out of 10 borrowing activity rating according to Astec
Analytics short market data.
Carrefour is also a top riser, up 3.1 percent after signing an online shopping
deal with Google.
They're both helping the retail sector index rise 0.7 percent. It's up 7.7 percent
year-to-date - a perhaps surprisingly high number for a sector whose disruption is so widely
discussed. Seems like the sector's attempts to fight back - from Ocado's Kroger deal to tie-ups
with Google - are bearing fruit.
On the negative side Rotork is down 2.5 percent after Morgan Stanley cut the stock
to equal-weight, and Norsk Hydro is falling 2 percent with some traders pointing to
Brazilian regulators rejecting the Norwegian steel firm's appeal regarding production cuts.
(Helen Reid)
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WHAT'S ON OUR RADAR BEFORE THE OPEN: RETAILERS IN FOCUS (0650 GMT)
European shares are set to open slightly higher, taking their cue from gains in Asia
following the positive conclusion of a historic U.S.-North Korea summit aimed at the
denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. Click here for the latest:.
Futures on main euro zone benchmarks are trading up 0.4-0.7 percent, while FTSE futures are
edging up 0.2 percent on a key day in parliament for the Brexit process and as a flurry of
trading updates roll in.
Retailers could also be in the spotlight after French supermarket company Casino said it
would sell assets for 1.5 billion euros to cut its debt, sending its shares up 3-4 percent in
premarket. Carrefour announced a tie-up with Google as the sector makes a big push into online
shopping. Its shares are up 2 percent pre-market.
Eyes also on FTSE heavyweight British American Tobacco which warned that currency exchange
rates would limit growth, although trading in the first half of the year was in line with
expectations.
Other stock movers: Housebuilder Crest Nicholson forecasts margins at bottom of guidance;
Online retailer Boohoo makes strong start to new year; Domino's Pizza says CFO leaves, outlook
on track; FCA ends fair treatment investigation into Scottish Widows; Fortum set to gain EU
antitrust approval for Uniper deal -sources; German ministry says 774,000 Mercedes cars contain
unauthorised software
(Danilo Masoni)
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EARLY MORNING HEADLINE ROUNDUP (0546 GMT)
Fortum set to gain EU antitrust approval for Uniper deal -sources
Debt-laden French retailer Casino plans 1.5 bln euros of asset sales
Carrefour, Google sign online shopping tie-up in France
German ministry says 774,000 Mercedes cars contain unauthorised software
France tells banks to hold capital buffer for loan risks
Investors push for board seats to help wind down Ranger Direct fund
Enbridge takes steps on pipeline policy after BP complains
BHP, union at Chile's Spence copper mine reach labor agreement
MEDIA-Deutsche Bank's global co-head of institutional clients leaves - Bloomberg
VW's Skoda says might outsource production to meet demand
More than 25 pct of WPP investors oppose Sorrell pay arrangements -Sky
Albania's Albgaz and Italy's Snam sign gas joint venture deal
Shell reports small explosion at Carson, California facility -filing
(Danilo Masoni)
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MORNING CALL: EUROPEAN SHARES SEEN UP AS US-N.KOREA SUMMIT RAISES HOPES (0523 GMT)
European shares are expected to start the session in positive territory with financial
spreadbetters expecting London's FTSE to open 10 points higher at 7,747. Frankfurt's DAX is set
to open 49 points higher at 12,892 and Paris' CAC 15 points higher at 5,489.
Over in Asia, the dollar jumped to a 3-week top while stock markets in Asia ticked higher as
a landmark U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore raised hopes the bitter foes might be able to
strike a deal to end a nuclear stand-off on the Korean peninsula.
U.S. President Donald Trump said the historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un
had gone "better than anybody could have expected", and they would sign a document following
talks on ways to end a nuclear standoff on the Korean peninsula.
(Danilo Masoni)
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