LIVE MARKETS-Contraction probability shoots up

* European shares down 0.4 percent

* ECB could unveil plans for cheap bank loans

* Earnings still in focus

* NMC Health, Axel Springer and Boskalis sink to bottom of STOXX 600

* Defensives eke out gains: food and beverage index at record high

March 7 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to

you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Danilo Masoni. Reach him on Messenger to

share your thoughts on market moves: rm://danilo.masoni.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

CONTRACTION PROBABILITY SHOOTS UP (1228 GMT)

"Even we are surprised by this," write UBS economists after their model showed the largest

one-month jump in U.S. recession risk in 30 years.

Hidden in last week's stronger than expected GDP data from the U.S. was the "nugget" that

spending on durables including furnishings, household equipment, recreational goods is down the

most since 2009 and spending on services is down the most since 2012.

The jump in UBS' model (which measures the probability of a recession or a mid-cycle

contraction) reflects those data points, as they say consumer durables are the most helpful in

detecting turning points and predicting contractions.

Weaker spending is a natural consequence of U.S.-China tariffs, which the economists have

said would do more damage than initially expected.

"We remain of the view that the current soft patch will subside fairly quickly, as we

already see some fading impact of the tariffs in the employment data," they add. "But given its

predictive properties, we should track durables consumption more closely than usual."

(Helen Reid)

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EURO ZONE: A NEW HOPE CALLED M1 (1208 GMT)

Let's face it, the outlook for growth in the euro zone is grim and we wouldn't be

speculating about TLTROs if the economy was partying like it was 1999.

So while we wait for the ECB meeting and possibly a lower forecast and stimulus hints from

the governing council, the question is whether the bloc is experiencing a simple slowdown, an

air pocket or has unknowingly hit the highway to recession.

Looking for clues, BNP Paribas' group economist notices there is some grounds for hope with

the money supply indicator M1. It's back on a positive trend, which could indicate growth may

follow up soon.

"After having slowed down for several months, real M1 growth has recently stabilised,"

William De Vijlder says in a video on the French bank's research website https://bit.ly/2EJfmTS.

"This provides some hope for a subsequent stabilisation of Eurozone growth as well," he

adds, cautioning however that there isn't yet sufficient evidence to make any hasty conclusions

on where the economy is heading.

This screenshot from the BNP video shows the M1 blue line picking up while the red line of

GDP has yet to change course.

(Julien Ponthus)

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DRINKS AND FOOD KEEP YOU HIGH, BUT ONLY IN EUROPE! (1158 GMT)

Europe's food and beverage index has quietly scored another all-time high this

morning, helped by better-than-expected Q4 numbers from Royal Unibrew which have

pushed shares in the Danish brewery up 3.8 percent to total 16 percent so far this year.

And elsewhere on that index, year-to-date performances are also pretty strong with AB Inbev

, Remy Cointreau, Carlsberg, Heineken, Nestle

and Danone all up between 10 and 25 percent.

Clearly investors are rediscovering their defensive qualities at a time when the economy

offers little to cheer about, but what looks even more interesting is that European food and

beverage stocks are doing better than their American counterparts.

It looks that's a rare case of Europe beating Wall Street, helped by better earnings

momentum. Why is that? We've asked Jérôme Schupp, portfolio manager at Prime Partners in Geneva.

"The sector is able to grow even in a tougher environment and most of the companies were

able to publish better-than-expected figures recently with positive internal growth," he says.

"This is not the same in the U.S. where most of the food and beverage stocks are struggling

for internal growth which is close to zero if not in negative territory," he adds.

"U.S. companies are much more focused on their home market and currently the U.S. market is

pretty challenging also because consumers are demanding more healthier food. Probably U.S.

companies understood that later than the Europeans," he adds.

Europe's STOXX 600 food and beverage index is up 14 percent so far this year while

the S&P Food, Beverage, and Tobacco index has risen 7.6 percent -- 14 percent under

the all-time high it hit in January 2018.

To conclude, Schupp says: "the main problem is that valuations are now pretty high but given

the challenging environment I expect this trend to continue, even though not at the same pace".

Cheers!

(Danilo Masoni)

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A DASH FOR THE BREXIT (1103 GMT)

Evidence is mounting that nervous UK retail investors are scaling back their exposure to

equities ahead of the Brexit deadline at the end of this month.

Data from the Investment Association, the trade body that represents UK asset managers,

released today reveals 870 million pounds ($1.1 billion) of retail cash was pulled from equity

funds in January. That compares with inflows of a whopping 1.4 billion pounds a year earlier.

Numbers also showed net outflows from individual savings accounts (ISAs), a barometer of

retail investment appetite, accelerated, with 506 million pounds pulled in the month. That

compares with 452 million in December and 129 million in January 2018.

"The threat of a no-deal Brexit, euro-zone instability, and international trade tensions,

combined to dampen investor appetite with savers looking towards Mixed Asset funds to spread

their risk," says Chris Cummings, chief executive of the association.

None of this is particularly surprising, but the data will likely feed concerns that years

of uncertainty about the process and impact of the country's departure from the bloc are

steadily draining London's thriving financial services industry.

It's not all doom and gloom though. Some cash appears to be heading into bonds, considered

havens in times of economic and political strife. The best-selling sectors in the first month of

the year were strategy bonds and mixed investment funds with only a portion of the assets held

in stocks, according to the Investment Association.

Data compiled by Calastone, which operates a global fund transaction network, shows a

similar trend extended into February.

They found investors pulled 215 million pounds out of UK-domiciled equity fund holdings last

month and ploughed 426 million pounds into bonds. Their data is based on the value of buy and

sell orders going through its network.

It's hard to see that next week's vote will clear much of the fog for investors - if PM

May's deal is rejected again, lawmakers will have the chance to vote to delay the departure,

potentially kicking the can down the road.

(Josephine Mason)

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SAVING THE UK HIGH STREET, ONE VEGAN SAUSAGE ROLL AT A TIME (1011 GMT)

There's a real media frenzy out there on how the launch of the now infamous vegan sausage

roll boosted the sales of Greggs and help propel its shares to new record highs.

The hype around the quorn-based delicacy is now seen as a marketing masterpiece which is

fast rebranding Greggs, until very recently seen as a no-frills, resolutely un-hipster

food-to-go chain focusing on hearty and filling, non-dietary snacks.

But beyond the praises received in the likes of PR Week (here's a link: https://bit.ly/2RuWUGZ)

for its "masterclass in public relations", the vegan sausage roll may actually offer a glimmer

of hope for the UK high street.

"Greggs is one of those businesses which has shrugged off the doom and gloom currently

engulfing the UK high street," writes Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

"We don’t know how many of the vegan rolls the baker is actually selling, but the publicity

is getting customers through the door one way or the other," he adds, noting that "like WHSmith,

Greggs has been quite canny about where its stores are located, shifting outlets away from

traditional shopping centres towards travel hubs and workplace locations."

Looking at the share price of Greggs, one has to admit that it looks more like a crypto or a

Canadian cannabis stock than a share in UK high street.

(Julien Ponthus and Helen Reid)

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ECB STIMULUS SPECULATION FAILS TO LIFT STOCKS (0854 GMT)

European indexes have opened in the red with losses limited to about 0.5 percent, and it

seems that speculation of a new round of TLTRO isn't the doing the magic many expected.

Banking stocks in that respect aren't doing as good as expected and are actually trading in

the red, down 0.4 percent, but the fate of the session still seems linked to the ECB meeting

later today.

Basic materials stocks were the biggest losers, down about 2 percent with coppers prices

dragging the sector.

In terms of individual stocks, German media group Axel Springer made a spectacular fall,

down close to 7 percent.

(Julien Ponthus)

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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPEN (0741 GMT)

European shares are expected to open lower today ahead of a much anticipated European

Central Bank meeting that is expected to slash growth forecasts and hint at a new round of

ultra-cheap loans for euro zone banks. Futures on main country benchmarks point to losses of

0.3-0.5 percent as a rebound in the region’s stock market stalls near 5-month highs.

Bank stocks have already risen sharply in anticipation of the new loans and investors expect

some profit taking could eventually kick in before the scheme's details are hammered out.

Italian banks and Spanish ones are the most sensitive to the measure, having taken the bulk

of the previous round of cheap funding from the ECB.

Still in banks, reports said Italy's biggest retail bank Intesa Sanpaolo is in talks to sell

about 10 billion euros in unlikely-to-pay property loans, signalling more progress in Italian

banks' effort to clean up their books.

Elsewhere, a number of earning updates especially in Germany could liven up the session.

There is good news for fashion investors after German house Hugo Boss said it expected its

operating profit to rise faster than sales in 2019, sending its shares up more than 2 percent in

pre-market trade.

Deutsche Post is also expected to gain after group said a restructuring programme in its

German post-and-parcel division will help boost profit this year, while publisher Axel Springer

and insurer Hannover RE are both seen falling more than 2 percent following their updates.

And here are some more market-moving headlines from the UK and, as you can see, there are

lots of earnings for investors to digest:

Melrose full-year adjusted pretax profit nearly triples

National Grid to buy U.S-based wind and solar energy developer

Inmarsat's fourth quarter earnings up 15 pct

UK real estate agent Countrywide sees more headwinds in 2019

UK's Greggs 2018 profit up 10 pct, "very strong" start to 2019

Aviva FY operating profit up 2 pct after life insurance boost

Cairn Homes FY Rev More Than Doubles, To Pay Dividend

Insurer Admiral warns on economic disruption from a "hard Brexit"

Schroders FY pretax profit down 15 pct on higher costs, fall in assets

(Danilo Masoni)

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FORGET STOCKS FUTURES, CHECK OUT ITALIAN YIELDS! (0728 GMT)

The most important indicator for today's incoming session might not be equity futures -

which are down between 0.3 pct and 0.5 pct - but rather Italian bond yield which are retreating

to seven-month lows for the 2-year.

What does that tell us about the ECB meeting? Mhhh?

Well TLTRO speculation is intensifying. As far as banking stocks are concerned, while an

announcement or even a hint of a new round of ECB cheap loans could help prop up euro zone

lenders, ruling out a new batch of refinancing could on the opposite have a dire impact.

Here's the Italian 2-year:

(Julien Ponthus and Abhinav Ramnarayan)

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ON OUR RADAR: EYES ON INTESA, RESULTS FROM MERCK, D.POST, VONOVIA (0638 GMT)

Turning to the corporate front, the Italian banking sector could be in focus this morning

after a source said the country's biggest retail bank Intesa Sanpaolo is in talks to

sell 10 billion euro in impaired loans, while Merck, Deutsche Post, Vonovia

and LafargeHolcim are also on the watch list after their earning updates.

Deutsche Telekom is another onte to watch after Bloomberg reported that U.S.

state antitrust enforcers are expressing deep concerns that T-Mobile US' proposed

takeover of Sprint could raise prices for consumers, signalling they might seek to thwart

the deal.

Here's your early morning headlines roundup:

Italy's Intesa in talks to sell 10 bln euros in impaired loans - source

Merck KGaA says currency headwinds quell drug gains in Q4

Deutsche Post sees profit hike in 2019, no sign of slowdown

Acquisitions help Vonovia's core profit rise 16 pct in 2018

LafargeHolcim expects sales growth of 3 to 5 percent in 2019

GE explores stake sale in Enel renewables joint venture -sources

Rusal posts $17 mln Q4 net loss, sees demand recovery

(Danilo Masoni)

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EUROPE SET FOR A WEAKER OPEN AHEAD OF ECB MEETING (0620 GMT)

European shares are expected to open lower today ahead of a much-anticipated European

Central Bank meeting that could announce plans for a new round of ultra-cheap bank loans, as the

outlook for the euro zone economy worsens.

Financial spreadbetters at IG expect Frankfurt's DAX to open 29 points lower at 11,558,

Paris' CAC to open 10 points lower at 5,279 and London's FTSE to open 34 points lower at 7,162.

In the previous session the STOXX 600 regional benchmark hit fresh five month highs before

pulling back and end just below parity.

Over in Asia, shares eased with caution prevailing as investors awaited some kind of

resolution to Sino-U.S. trade negotiations.

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

($1 = 0.7602 pounds)