LIVE MARKETS-What could give European equities a helping hand?
March 19 - Welcome to the home for real time coverage of European equity markets brought to
you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her on Messenger to
share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
WHAT COULD GIVE EUROPEAN EQUITIES A HELPING HAND? (1452 GMT)
Favouring European stocks over Wall Street because of a big valuation gap was consensus
thinking at the start of the year, but just three months on it's clear to everyone that such a
bet is not paying off: the STOXX has underperformed the S&P 500 by 4.7 percent year-to-date.
Natixis (LSE: 0IHK.L - news) economists, who also mistakenly had expected Europe to do better, have taken a look
at which factors have historically (since 1990) helped Europe beat Wall Street to better assess
what is actually needed for a comeback.
Here's their bottom line: "While the EUR/USD can be expected to continue to play against
European equities, their salvation over the medium term could come either from a slowdown of the
US economy and/or from a normalisation on the downside of earnings growth forecasts for US
equities."
Is this going to happen?
Well, it's hard to predict but in this chart you can see how U.S. earnings growth forecasts
for 2018 have been constantly revised upwards while European forecasts have come down a bit.
(Danilo Masoni)
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BANKING ON BANKS M&A (1419 GMT)
The debate is still raging over European banks and whether they're a good investment.
"Generalists and macro investors are doing work on European financials and seem to think
that, despite a widening valuation gap vs. the U.S. (in particular for banks), it still feels
safer to invest in the new versus the old world," write Goldman analysts.
But ABN AMRO is more positive on the prospects for consolidation to turbocharge the European
banking sector.
Total (LSE: 524773.L - news) assets of the euro area banking sector are still far greater than in the U.S. and
Japan, as a share of GDP. Peaking at about 340% of GDP in 2012, they've fallen to around 280% of
GDP - compared to 88% in the U.S. (see graph below).
While regulatory obstacles have been a challenge, analysts at the Dutch bank reckon it's now
time for consolidation to change the landscape of the banking sector.
"As this trend increases it will be essential to be on the side of the banks that are moving
quickest and we will pay attention to the profitability of the smaller banks over the next
twelve months," they add.
(Helen Reid)
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UK REITS: NOT SO UNTOUCHABLE AFTER ALL (1341 GMT)
Klépierre's rebuffed swoop for Hammerson (Frankfurt: 876140 - news) this morning highlights a perhaps surprising
enthusiasm from foreign buyers for a stock in the real estate investment trust (REIT (SES: _REIT.SI - news) ) sector,
one often touted as being the single most exposed to Brexit.
Is UK real estate more resilient than it looks?
"Despite significant political uncertainty and rapid structural change... the UK Real Estate
market is surprisingly robust," Goldman analysts wrote on Friday, adding Hammerson to their
'conviction list' - in hindsight a well-timed move.
Goldman noted, however, that mixed results are likely from different parts of the real
estate market.
They see London office values declining gradually by 29 percent, while residential property
prices could slide 15 percent due to rising interest rates. Industrial rents should increase 33
percent by 2021, however.
(Helen Reid)
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DEMAND AND CAPEX: THE TRADE WAR CUSHION? (1314 GMT)
Morgan Stanley (Xetra: 885836 - news) 's economists point out that a recovery in the global capex cycle "tends to
have a stronger influence on global trade", and that the broader backdrop of global demand
should offset U.S. trade policy uncertainty.
They note the latest round of trade measures from the U.S. will impact an estimated 1.7
percent of U.S. goods imports, taking into account exemptions for Mexico, Canada and Australia.
So not a huge hit.
So how to play this protectionist theme? Morgan Stanley highlight that sectors with the
biggest exposure to exports and a stronger currency are also some of the most expensive and
overbought, such as chemicals, industrials and autos. While they would avoid these, they do like
the European market more broadly.
"What’s odd is that investors appear to be selling the entire market, rather than the
sectors that actually have the largest exposure to exports and a stronger currency," Morgan
Stanley (Shenzhen: 002588.SZ - news) 's strategists say.
(Kit Rees)
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SPIN-OFFS GALORE (1233 GMT)
Last week was thick with spin-offs with Prudential (SES: K6S.SI - news) 's split and German utility giants E.ON
and RWE (IOB: 0FUZ.IL - news) 's deal to break up Innogy, and according to Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS-PB - news) there's more to come.
Goldman analysts see these as further fueling their corporate simplification and
restructuring theme, with more and more companies turning to portfolio restructuring to create
value.
If the current level of spin-off activity is maintained, it will be Europe's busiest year
since 2006 for corporates spinning off assets, they note (see chart below).
European corporates including Ascential (LSE: 31120035.L - news) , Standard Life (LSE: SL.L - news) , Accor (EUREX: 485822.EX - news) , GKN (Frankfurt: 694194 - news) , Altice (Other OTC: ATSVF - news) and Rolls Royce (LSE: RR.L - news)
have had spin-offs recently, and these have generally been met with positive reactions from the
market.
Not only did the parent companies perform well but the off-spins also outperformed in the
six and twelve months following. GS says since 2005, companies that have divested an asset worth
more than 5 percent of market cap have tended to outperform the broader market by 3.6 percent on
a 12-month horizon from the divestment date.
The sectors where GS sees most opportunities for simplification and restructuring are autos
and utilities. They highlight FCA, Enel (LSE: 0NRE.L - news) and Standard Life as potential gainers from this theme.
(Helen Reid)
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POUND CELEBRATES, FTSE NOT SO MUCH (1204 GMT)
"The pound is celebrating this morning on positive headlines regarding a Brexit transition
deal," writes Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, as cable is up at a 3-week high
against the dollar.
And here are the latest headlines with EU's Barnier saying "we have a transition deal".
On the equity market however the FTSE is hovering at 2-week lows, down 1.3 percent
and underperforming other European markets, as strength in the sterling clearly doesn't help the
internationally-exposed index.
After the Brexit referendum in June 2016 the FTSE has tended to move inversely to the pound
although the negative correlation looks to be evaporating, as you can see in this chart.
(Danilo Masoni)
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TARIFF FEEDBACK FROM TEXAS (1141 GMT)
Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) analysts travelled to Texas last week to find out the potential impact of steel
tariffs on makers (Tenaris (Amsterdam: TS6.AS - news) , Vallourec (LSE: 0NR2.L - news) and Voestalpine (IOB: 0MKX.IL - news) ) and distributors (CTAP, Sooner,
PremierPipe) of the so-called OCTG (Oil Country Tubular Goods) tubes used in oil and gas
production.
The result? Spot prices have already risen 20-25 percent, although further material price
increases appear unlikely as the system looks already well supplied of pipes, they say.
And there is one winner among the stocks they cover.
"In this environment we see Tenaris as a key beneficiary of the new tariff regime, while for
Vallourec its relatively small U.S. exposure (24% of capacity) would merely offset headwinds
elsewhere," they add.
As you see in the chart Tenaris has clearly outperformed its peers since the U.S. first
unveiled the tariffs plan last month.
(Danilo Masoni)
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KLEPIERRE OFFER TO HAMMERSON - WHAT NOW? (1126 GMT)
Though Hammerson rebuffed Klepierre (LSE: 0F4I.L - news) 's offer, saying it under-values the
company, the market is abuzz as a potential successful takeover could jeopardise Hammerson's
ongoing merger with Intu (Swiss: OXIGTU.SW - news) and burn merger arbitrage funds.
Merger arbs are positioned long Intu, short Hammerson, says one trader. "If a deal breaks,
arbs will suffer as Hammerson will roof and Intu could go down," he notes.
Jefferies analysts argue Hammerson's protracted merger process with Intu is losing
credibility, hence Klepierre swooping in today.
"The positive of a rival offer for Hammerson is a partial cash element (rather than the
allstock swap at 0.4765 HMSO per Intu share) so Klepierre's interest in Hammerson could upset
the marriage proposals with Intu," they say.
This is reflected in today's moves: Intu shares are up just 2 percent while
Hammerson is still up 24 percent, suggesting the market is worried about Intu.
The offer of course makes sense for Paris-based Klépierre seeking to secure a foothold in
the UK market, with Hammerson shares at their cheapest in nine years (see below) - made even
cheaper for the French company thanks to a favourable euro-sterling exchange rate.
(Helen Reid)
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TIME TO MOVE INTO DEFENSIVES? (0958 GMT)
Tech is no longer unshakeably the favourite, it seems, as UniCredit (EUREX: DE000A163206.EX - news) strategists downgrade
the sector and argue investors should increase exposure to more defensive areas of the market.
Micro Focus' 55 percent slump today indicates investors have very limited patience for any
signs of strain in tech stocks whose valuations have surged up in the past years.
Strategists at the Italian bank downgrade tech to neutral, and upgrade utilities from
underweight to overweight.
"The latest developments and the levels of leading indicators suggest a period in which
defensive sectors will become more attractive," write Unicredit strategists.
The mammoth deal last week between RWE and E.ON to break up Innogy would have helped
sentiment on utilities, but Unicredit also argues the sector is relatively insulated from "trade
war" fears.
They also have overweight recommendations on the defensive food & beverage, and healthcare,
sectors.
(Helen Reid)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: EUROPEAN STOCKS OPEN LOWER AS MICRO FOCUS DIVES (0818 GMT)
A drop in Micro Focus' shares and Henkel (LSE: 0IZ8.L - news) are contributing to the muted mood among European
shares this morning, which have opened lower.
Likewise falls among energy stocks and basic resources are also weighing.
On the positive side, Hammerson is the biggest gainer after that takeover approach from
Klepierre, while British betting firms have jumped after a report from the UK's gambling
commission which recommended a stake limit of at or below 30 pounds sterling for fixed odds
betting terminals (FOBTs).
Here's your opening snapshot:
(Kit Rees)
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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING AHEAD OF THE OPEN (0752 GMT)
European stock futures were down 0.2 to 0.5 percent, pointing to a more feeble start to a
busy week with investors’ eyes on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting and the EU summit on
Brexit.
With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) earnings season drawing to a close, there are however results from Henkel and Micro
Focus which could jolt the shares.
Henkel warned the year was off to a slow start, its shares are indicated down 2-3 percent.
Micro Focus meanwhile is seen falling as much as 15 percent after it said annual
revenue would fall more than expected due to lower licence income and complications from its
purchase of Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ - news) assets, prompting its CEO to quit.
M&A continues apace, and Hammerson’s rejection of Klépierre’s takeover
offer is likely to boost the UK commercial real estate firm’s shares.
It is offers such as these that many UK investors are hoping for when they buy into what
many see as the stocks most at risk from a disorderly Brexit, such as commercial real estate
investment trusts.
European companies like Klépierre have all the more to gain from buying the depressed shares
with the euro/sterling exchange rate so favourable. With the offer valuing Hammerson’s shares at
a 40.7 percent premium to Friday’s closing price, and the market’s short position on Hammerson
growing in the past month, the shares are likely to jump this morning.
News that activist investor Sherborne acquired a more than 5 percent stake in Barclays (Swiss: BARC.SW - news)
should shake up the British bank’s shares too.
(Helen Reid)
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COMPANY HEADLINES: MORNING ROUND-UP (0741 GMT)
Melrose (LSE: 136541.L - news) pledges to inject 1 bln stg in GKN pension scheme
Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL - news) is developing own MicroLED screens - Bloomberg
Pilots set up pan-European association to challenge Ryanair
Daimler (IOB: 0NXX.IL - news) cars unit invests to ramp up output to 3 mln vehicles
Sherborne acquires voting rights over 5.16 pct in Barclays
France's Klepierre says offer to buy Hammerson rejected
Micro Focus downgrades 2018 revenue forecast, CEO steps down
UK gambling commission makes recommendations on FOBT machines
Henkel warns that delivery woes in North America damp Q1 start
CEO of Germany's GEA Group (IOB: 0MPJ.IL - news) to leave in April 2019
Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news) hopes for resolution to IBOR, Libya investigations within weeks
Shipping firm CMA CGM sees industry rebound continuing
Rocket Internet (Swiss: OXRKET.SW - news) explores IPO of online shopping group Jumia - sources
Kering (LSE: 0IIH.L - news) says Swiss activities tax-compliant
(Tom Pfeiffer)
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FUTURES POINT TO SLOWER START AS FED LOOMS (0712 GMT)
Futures are down 0.2 to 0.4 percent across the main European benchmarks, confirming
spreadbetters' calls of a more cautious start to the week.
With earnings season drawing to a close, corporate news is thin on the ground but M&A news
is still coming in: Hammerson has just announced it rejected an acquisition offer by
Klépierre which valued the UK real estate company's shares at a 40.7 percent premium
to their closing price on Friday.
(Helen Reid)
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MORNING CALL: CAUTION DOMINATES FIRST DAY OF BUSY WEEK
Good morning and welcome to Live Markets.
European stocks are called down this morning, following the lead of Asian markets which hit
a speed-bump in the first trading day of a busy week. Britain prepares for a critical EU summit
this week, and investors are also eyeing Jerome Powell's first press conference as Federal
Reserve Chair and the central bank's decision on Wednesday.
Asian shares were mixed as tension built ahead of this week's Fed meeting which will likely
result in an interest rate hike.
Spreadbetters call the DAX 17 points lower at 12,373, the CAC 40 down 17 points at 5,265,
and the FTSE 100 16 points lower at 7,149.
(Helen Reid)
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