LIVE MARKETS-Farewell #Euroboom, hello #EurodoingOkButNoLongerThatGreat
April 5 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to
you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her on Messenger to
share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
FAREWELL #EUROBOOM, HELLO #EURODOINGOKBUTNOLONGERTHATGREAT (1045 GMT)
Is it time to call an official end to the #Euroboom economic cycle and make peace with the
fact that the "peak growth" narrative is going mainstream? It sure does look like it.
Today's Markit (NasdaqGS: MRKT - news) 's revised down euro zone PMI is perhaps not the final nail in the hashtag's
coffin but it sure adds to widespread signs of growth moderating in the bloc.
This morning's German industrial orders also show that while activity remains robust,
"momentum has started to wane – a message that was also conveyed by the latest string of PMI
surveys", Rabobank noted.
"Europe's macro data is shifting away from "boom" territory and growth is no longer
accelerating", Citi also said in a note explaining why it downgraded the region's equities to
neutral, even if growth still remains above trend.
In this chart you can see how Citi’s economic surprise index for the bloc has fallen and is
now at its most negative since 2013.
"Growth is high but no longer accelerating" Natixis AM said in its April economic outlook,
adding that prospects were slightly better in the U.S. than in the euro zone due to Trump's tax
cuts and infrastructure spending plan.
But more than just the end of the #Euroboom, other analysts predict that its actually the
end of wider global theme.
"The 'Global Synchronized Recovery' narrative got really tired by the end of last year, says
INTL FCStone Vincent Deluard who believes investors "fell in love" and bought, maybe a bit too
eagerly, the idea of a sustainable long lasting self powered new economic cycle.
Here is his chart showing signs that the end of 2017 could have been the top of the cycle:
(Julien Ponthus with Helen Reid)
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"BUY THE (BIGGER) DIPS" (0923 GMT)
This is what Citi's strategists led by Robert Buckland recommend clients do as they expect
global equities to rise 8 percent by the end of this year, even though it won't be plain
sailing.
"This is the period later in the cycle when credit spreads turn upwards. Equities keep
making new highs but with increased volatility. The dips get bigger, bubbles inflate and
growth/momentum strategies outperform," they say, sticking to their preference for cyclical over
defensive stocks.
In the snapshot Citi's year-end targets for the top global stock indexes.
(Danilo Masoni)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: TRADE WAR RELIEF RALLY SPREADS TO EUROPE (0717 GMT)
European bourses have started the day sharply higher as the trade war relief rally which
boosted Wall Street and Asia spreads through global markets.
Hopes that the trade salvos between China and the U.S. were tactical rather than the
beginning of an escalating world trade conflagration have buoyed markets, but the question is:
is that the right assumption?
(Julien Ponthus)
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WHAT'S ON THE RADAR BEFORE THE OPEN (0651 GMT)
European stocks are set to jump sharply today, following a relief rally on Wall Street and
Asian markets. Futures are up 1.2 to 1.6 percent across the major benchmarks, with Germany’s DAX
– the market most exposed to China – leading the way.
Results from Sophos should push the stock up by 2 to 10 percent, with pre-market
indications giving a wide range. The cybersecurity firm said billings growth for the year would
be towards the top end of guidance. Electrocomponents (LSE: ECM.L - news) is also called up 2 to 4 percent
after its margin exceeded expectations.
In the latest development in the M&A moves in commercial real estate, Britain’s Hammerson
has said it would sit tight and delay finalizing documents for its acquisition of Intu (Swiss: OXIGTU.SW - news)
until it gets clarity from French firm Klepierre (LSE: 0F4I.L - news) , whose first bid for
Hammerson (Frankfurt: 876140 - news) was rejected last month. The deadline for a formal bid is April 16.
"With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) the possibility of a bid from Klépierre pushing the share price up, and the prospect
of Hammerson buying Intu pulling the shares down (plus the possibility of neither deal achieving
shareholder approval), the ultimate trajectory of the shares will be determined by the outcome
of the current three-way confrontation," write Stifel analysts.
(Helen Reid)
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FUTURES POINT TO ROARING START FOR EUROPE (0620 GMT)
European stock futures have opened sharply higher, trading up 1 to 1.3 percent across the
major benchmarks, indicating a robust relief rally.
Hammerson has just said its board won't finalise shareholder documents for the proposed
acquisition of Intu until Klepierre, the French firm which bid for Hammerson last month, decides
on a formal bid (the deadline is April 16).
Here are some of the other corporate headlines this morning:
Clariant (IOB: 0QJS.IL - news) expects sales of about $2 bln in North America by 2021
Italian state lender CDP set to buy stake of up to 5 pct in Telecom Italia (Amsterdam: TI6.AS - news) - sources
U.S.-China trade war could hit German automakers, plus Tesla, Ford
VW bets on Brazil rebound with SUV, Honda remains cautious
Monte dei Paschi (Milan: BMPS.MI - news) 's bosses confident about turnaround plan - sources
Watchdog says big German banks should not merge - Handelsblatt
Norway's DNO (LSE: 0MHP.L - news) raises Faroe Petroleum (LSE: FPM.L - news) stake to 25.4 pct
(Helen Reid)
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MORNING CALL: RELIEF RALLY TO LIFT EUROPEAN STOCKS (0525 GMT)
Relief rippled through Wall Street and Asian stock markets overnight after a weaker start to
trading, as fears of a trade war eased. Asian shares bounced from two-month lows as investors
hoped that negotiations between the U.S. and China could help avert a fully-blown trade war.
"In isolation, trade wars don't cause a global downturn - nor a sustained sell-off in risky
assets," writes ING strategist Viraj Patel, saying broader political uncertainty or an economic
slowdown are usually the triggers for a more severe correction.
This "cold trade conflict" could become a war, he adds, if the U.S. broadens measures to
other countries and sectors (ING highlights U.S. tariffs on EU car imports as the "flagship
policy"), or reacts to any retaliatory Chinese tariffs by imposing larger and "potentially
blanket" tariffs.
For today, though, European stocks are in for a relief bounce.
Spreadbetters call the DAX 176 points higher at 12,134, the CAC 40 up 73 points at 5,215,
and the FTSE 100 98 points higher at 7,132.
(Helen Reid)
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