LIVE MARKETS-FTSE still not bothered by fresh Brexit worries

* European shares retreat

* Asian shares fall as energy stocks weigh

* Eyes on Fed chairman's first congressional testimony

* Focus on earnings, dealmaking

July 17 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets

brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Danilo Masoni. Reach him on

Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: danilo.masoni.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

FTSE STILL NOT BOTHERED BY FRESH BREXIT WORRIES (1127 GMT)

Brexit has sparked fresh worries among investors following last week's ministerial

resignations, a sentiment voiced in a number of investment commentaries.

"We believe the risk of Parliament rejecting any deal put in front of them late in 2018, or

early in 2019, is increasing, and this puts both the agreement on future relationships and the

transition period after the end of March 2019 in serious jeopardy," John Wraith, strategist at

UBS (LSE: 0QNR.L - news) , says in a note, adding that a "disorderly" exit is looking more likely than before.

BlackRock (Sao Paolo: BLAK34.SA - news) also sees a "rocky" Brexit road ahead.

However, it's not been too bad for the UK's FTSE, as you can see from the chart below, given

it has performed pretty much in line with Euro zone stocks, while UK mid-caps have outperformed

slightly!

"UK stocks have been resilient recently, aided by domestic stocks’ global orientation and an

M&A uptick. Yet political uncertainty looks set to stay elevated in the second half," Richard

Turnill, BlackRock’s global chief investment strategist, says in a note.

Turnill adds they are underweight UK equities, and prefer overseas earners. They would avoid

UK banks, and favour U.S. and EM equities on higher earnings growth.

(Kit Rees)

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VALUATION RISK FADING AS MARKETS GROW MORE SKITTISH (1028 GMT)

As investors become more defensive faced with a litany of political and trade risks, some

have been increasing cash holdings. One argument for sticking with stocks, however, is that

valuations have declined.

"Markets have been a bit more skittish, but one of the biggest risks, of higher valuations,

has gone. Valuations are becoming more reasonable than they have been," Bill Street, head of

investments for EMEA at State Street Global Advisors told us at a roundtable.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS-PB - news) analysts also note valuations across asset classes have fallen, led by

equities.

"In most markets, this has been due less to sharp equity drawdowns and more because equities

have been in a 'fat and flat' range YTD but earnings growth and earnings revisions have been

broadly positive," they write.

What does this mean? That thus far the P in the P/E has not been budging in response to

higher E. Getting out of this "fat and flat" range requires strong earnings to drive prices up.

"During Fed rate hike cycles, equity valuations usually don't expand and rallies tend to be

earnings driven," adds GS.

No pressure on this earnings season, then...

Asked what he thinks European earnings will deliver, SSGA's global head of macro strategy

Michael Metcalfe wasn't hugely enthusiastic: "It's not going to continue to get worse, but it

might not get an awful lot better."

Below you can see the decline in valuations across equity indices - with MSCI EM falling the

most and STOXX 600 the least.

(Helen Reid)

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FORGET DEUTSCHE BANK, EUROPEAN BANKS FACE EPS CUTS (0950 GMT)

Deutsche Bank (IOB: 0H7D.IL - news) surprised to the upside and a solid update today from Swedish

lender SEB (LSE: 0MGS.L - news) is also helping the European banking index stage a rare gain in a

rather sluggish market, but caution may be advisable as the earnings seasons gets going.

The index and its close euro zone cousin have both hit bear market territory this

month with a more than 20 percent drop from their highs set in January - and Citi analysts see

cuts ahead for earnings estimates.

"As European banks report 2Q18 earnings over next month, consensus EPS cuts are likely to be

put through to factor in weaker Non-NII trends," they say, noting how consensus 2019 EPS is only

down 2 percentage points year-to-date versus their 5 percentage points cut.

"EPS downgrades are likely headwind over coming weeks."

There looks to be one caveat, however, which is the strong positive correlation of euro zone

banks with euro zone PMIs, which could offset any cut to earnings forecasts.

"EPS trends may matter for intra-sector performance but if we get continued better EA macro

data it should support SX7E upside despite upcoming consensus EPS cuts," they say.

(Danilo Masoni)

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RESULTS SPICE UP LACKLUSTRE TRADING (0722 GMT)

All the action is underneath the benchmark levels today as the STOXX and DAX fall 0.2 to 0.3

percent. In a break from the norm, financials are the strongest boosts to European stocks and

tech is the biggest drag.

Swedish bank SEB is pushing bank stocks up, jumping 5.1 percent after its net

interest income easily beat forecasts thanks to strong corporate demand.

Thyssenkrupp (IOB: 0O1C.IL - news) shares are up 3.9 percent at the top of the DAX after its chairman

quit, raising hopes of a restructuring.

And we've got the first signs of trade war being felt by some companies.

Husqvarna (LSE: 0GTR.L - news) is the biggest faller, down 11.5 percent after the appliance and tool

maker said it expects a negative effect from possible trade tariffs in 2018 with a bigger impact

in 2019.

(Helen Reid)

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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING BEFORE THE OPEN (0650 GMT)

European shares are expected to open little changed today with some good earnings updates

likely to provide support after broad declines in the previous session when a drop in oil prices

weighed on energy shares. As oil prices continue to fall, futures on main country benchmarks are

trading between a rise of 0.1 percent and a fall of 0.15 percent.

Following the positive surprise from Deutsche Bank yesterday results from SEB could also

inject some optimism into the struggling banking sector which remains the worst performer in

Europe so far this year on worries over slowing growth.

Shares (Berlin: DI6.BE - news) in the Swedish bank are up 5 percent in pre-market after reporting a

bigger-than-expected rise in its second-quarter operating earnings as a broad rebound in demand

from corporate customers boosted income from commissions and lending.

French supermarket retailer Casino is also up pre-market after sales growth accelerated in

the second quarter, reflecting further improvement in its core French market and better trends

in Brazil.

The media and telecoms sectors could be livened up by fresh dealmaking activity with Swedish

telecom operator Telia agreeing to buy TDC (LSE: 0MOP.L - news) 's Norwegian business and Italian commercial TV group

Mediaset (LSE: 0NE1.L - news) launching a bid for tower company EI Towers. Telia shares are down as much as 1 percent

in pre-market.

According to Thomson Reuters (Dusseldorf: TOC.DU - news) data, second-quarter earnings for the euro zone’s MSCI EMU

index are seen up 3.7 percent.

For more headlines check out the previous post.

(Danilo Masoni)

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EARLY MORNING HEADLINES ROUNDUP: EARNINGS AND M&A (0550 GMT)

Investors will have a few earnings releases to focus on this morning with bank SEB and

mapping firm TomTom (LSE: 0MKS.L - news) beating estimates. French retailer Casino kept its targets, while telecoms

group Telenor (LSE: 0G8C.L - news) fell short of analyst estimates.

There is also some fresh dealmaking activity with Swedish telecom operator Telia agreeing to

buy TDC's Norwegian business and Mediaset launching a bid for EI Towers.

Here are your top headlines:

Swedish bank SEB Q2 profit tops forecast

TomTom beats Q2 estimates, raises full year outlook

Retailer Casino's Q2 sales accelerate, keeps goals

Norway's Telenor misses Q2 forecast, reiterates focus on cost savings

Italy's Mediaset, F2i launch bid for EI Towers

Telia to buy TDC's Norway business in NOK 21 bln deal

Roche nabs trial win for investigational anti-viral flu drug

Rio Tinto (Hanover: CRA1.HA - news) posts 14 pct rise in quarterly iron ore shipments

Thyssenkrupp in leadership turmoil as chairman quits

Britain unveils fighter jet model to rival Franco-German programme

Spain's BBVA (LSE: 931474.L - news) tops list of foreign banks exposed to Turkey -ABN AMRO

Monte dei Paschi (Milan: BMPS.MI - news) says granted state guarantee on bad loan securitisation sale

(Danilo Masoni)

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MORNING CALL: EUROPEAN SHARES SEEN STEADYING (0525 GMT)

European shares are set to open little changed this morning after a broad declines in the

previous session caused by a drop in energy stocks on falling crude prices.

Financial spreadbetters expect London's FTSE to open 10 points higher, while Frankfurt's DAX

is set to open 14 points higher and Paris' CAC 5 points higher.

Over in Asia, stocks were mostly lower, with the sharp decline in crude oil prices weighing

on energy shares, while the dollar dipped ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's

first U.S. congressional testimony. The speech is due at 1400 GMT.

(Danilo Masoni)

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