LIVE MARKETS-Going short... back in five minutes
* STOXX 600 lower after dovish Fed
* DAX rises as VW, Bayer gain
* BoE keeps rates unchanged, ups growth forecast
May 2 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you
by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Josephine Mason. Reach her on Messenger to
share your thoughts on market moves: josephine.mason.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
GOING SHORT... BACK IN FIVE MINUTES (1357 GMT)
The uncertainty dominating equity investors over where to put their money next is most
visible in some acrobatic and strange hedging moves.
BNP Paribas Asset Management multi-asset allocation strategists say they're "structurally"
(mid- to long-term) neutral on developed equities and government bonds, but "tactically" (short
term) have short positions on both developed equities and core euro zone bonds.
"Portfolios have been short, but this is to express a near term time frame," explains
Maximilian Moldaschl, senior multi-asset strategist at BNPP AM.
They've also put on several relative value trades with what they call "interesting
asymmetries":
* Long 5-year U.S. Treasuries versus German Bunds
* Long France's CAC 40 versus Germany's DAX
(Helen Reid)
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BOE SITS TIGHT AS BREXIT RISKS STILL LOOM LARGE (1121 GMT)
Policymakers unanimously voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75 percent in the
latest Bank of England meeting, although they also stuck to their view tighter policy will be
needed in future - a more hawkish stance than both the Fed and the ECB.
The Bank also lifted its growth forecast for the UK to 1.5 percent, up from the decade-low
1.2 percent it predicted in February, but warned Brexit continues to cloud the outlook for
monetary policy.
Sterling jumped on the raised GDP forecast but quickly reversed gains, while the FTSE 100
has fallen into negative territory, down 0.1 percent.
Carney should go into more detail on the BOE's thinking in a press conference at 1130 GMT.
(Helen Reid)
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EUROPEAN VS. U.S. CYCLICALS: A WILD GOOSE CHASE? (1031 GMT)
Is it finally time for European cyclicals to play catch-up with the U.S., after lagging far
behind since 2015?
Looks like it, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts predicting a bounce-back helped
by improving EU and emerging markets macro.
Credit Suisse recently said it moved its money from euro pharma and added to euro cyclicals.
"The turnaround in sentiment towards European cyclicals is also reflected in sentiment
toward euro area equities more broadly," the Swiss bank added.
BAML also says its tactical sector signal favours cyclicals, with European tech and autos
rising to bullish territory from bearish, previously.
The call comes despite a 24 percent year-to-date rally in tech and 22 percent in autos.
One thing to bear in mind while Europe tries to chase the U.S. is the amount of ground still
to cover - check the 5-year performance below:
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
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"WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO THE END OF THE DOWNGRADE CYCLE" (0926 GMT)
With almost four out of ten companies in Europe having already released their Q1 updates so
far, it's time to take stock.
UBS has found out that a net 3 percent of companies have beaten earnings expectations,
bouncing from Q4 - which was the weakest quarter in a decade.
"We think we are getting closer to the end of the downgrade cycle – April was the best month
for earnings momentum since September 2018," say strategists at the Swiss bank, led by Nick
Nelson.
"Interestingly, the companies that have missed estimates have been roughly flat on the day
relative to the market – investors might be starting to look through the downgrades," they add.
They also point to strong revenue beats (highest in 8 quarters) that suggest the macro
backdrop may be stabilising, but there's one risk though: margin squeeze.
"The gap between revenue beats and earnings beats is close to a 9-year high and margin
downgrades are the largest since the 2012 recession. The critical question going forward is can
companies pass on the higher costs?" they say.
(Danilo Masoni)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: EUROPE ON THE BACKFOOT AFTER FED (0729 GMT)
With euro-zone investors returning after the May Day holiday following the Fed's dovish
stance overnight and a slew of earnings to wade through, European shares are under pressure at
the open. The STOXX 600 is down 0.6 percent.
"Powell played it well, but effectively offered nothing to investors hoping for a hint that
the Fed is even beginning to think about a meaningful easing of policy," says a London-based
trader. "Transient inflation and strong economy comments put the Powell Pivot firmly into Powell
Pause despite continued calls from the White House for ever more aggressive easing."
Frankfurt is outperforming, falling just 0.2 percent, with Volkswagen, Bayer
, Fresenius and Fresenius Medical Care all rising after their
results and Bayer benefitting from a positive announcement from the U.S. environmental watchdog
about glyphosate.
Among individual moves, Andritz is down 12 percent and has fallen to the bottom of
the pan-European STOXX 600 after cutting its FY profit forecast due to weak car industry demand,
while Hugo Boss is falling 3.6 percent after its results and in Paris results from
Legrand are pushing its shares down 3.4 pct.
Geberit is up 7 percent after beating Q1 results even as it cautioned about a
challenging year ahead, while AMS is up 5.1 percent on its first trading day since Apple's
consensus-busting results were released on Tuesday night.
Here's your opening snapshot:
(Josephine Mason)
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WHAT'S ON THE RADAR: EUROPE DEFIES WEAK WALL STREET (0657 GMT)
Europe stock futures are indicating a slightly stronger start this morning with the
reopening of euro-zone markets after the May Day holiday, defying a weaker Wall Street overnight
as investors digest a slew of earnings, a dovish Fed briefing overnight and fresh optimism over
the U.S.-China trade talks.
Futures were initially firmly in the red, but are all now slightly higher.
And guess what? There’s no shortage of earnings news.
Volkswagen has reported inline Q1 profits and stood by its FY revenue estimates, providing a
boost to shares even as the German car maker softened its outlook for the passenger car business
and set aside 1 billion euros for legal issues stemming from its diesel emissions cheating
scandal. Its shares are up as much as 2.4 percent in pre-market trade in Frankfurt.
But citing weak car industry demand Andritz, which makes and supplies plants and systems to
various industries, cut its FY outlook.
In retail and luxury goods, Estee Lauder delivered consensus-busting results and upped its
2019 estimates overnight citing booming demand for luxury beauty products in China, potentially
boosting rivals like L’Oreal.
But German fashion house Hugo Boss shares are down almost 4 percent in pre-market trade
after a Q1 earnings hit due to reorganisation costs, higher marketing expenses and a strong U.S.
dollar, while Zalando, Europe's biggest online-only fashion retailer, reported Q1 sales growth.
UK's McBride shares may sink as much 20 percent after the maker of laundry and cleaning
products issued another profit warning and announced the departure of its CEO due to weak sales
in Germany, France and Italy.
In a similar theme, Geberit has cautioned of a challenging year due to a construction
slowdown and economic volatility amid Italian political risks and Brexit, potentially casting a
pall over the plumbing materials supplier's shares and the broader building sector.
Keep tabs on the chip stocks. With mixed messages from the sector so far this earnings
season, Qualcomm has offered a downbeat assessment, blaming weaker-than-expected revenue on a
slow Chinese smartphone market where it says consumers are holding off buying new phones until
the 5G networks roll out later this year.
It’s a mixed bag from banks: Britain's biggest mortgage lender Lloyds Banking Group bucked
the trend of UK banks, reporting strong Q1 profits despite cooling house prices and dwindling
confidence among business borrowers, in contrast with disappointing results from RBS and
Barclays.
Metro Bank shares are seen falling after the company revealed the damage an accounting error
had inflicted on its business, BNP Paribas' Q1 net profits beat expectations while ING Q1
underlying net narrowly missed market expectations.
Plenty going on in healthcare, pharma and consumer: Reckitt Benckiser shares are indicated
1-2 percent lower after the Strepsils and Mucinex maker reported lower-than-expected Q1 sales
citing a slow start to the year in its health business, and Fresenius shares rise after its
results.
But Sanofi is likely to get a lift after the U.S. approved its dengue vaccine, and Bayer
shares are rallying premarket after the U.S. environment watchdog said on Tuesday before the
holiday that glyphosate, a chemical in many popular weed killers, is not a carcinogen,
contradicting decisions by U.S. juries that found it caused cancer in people.
Some of the headlines:
Sanofi wins U.S. approval to sell dengue vaccine but with major restrictions
Restaurant Group PLC appoints GVC exec as CEO
Britain's Metro Bank mishap dents deposits, profit and capital
Thomas Cook sets May 7 deadline for interest in airline business - sources
Fresenius makes solid start to Q1 after troubled 2018
Geberit expects tough 2019 citing Brexit, Italian risks
Zalando to expand loyalty scheme to more markets
Strong sales of imaging gear help Healthineers post Q2 beat
VW softens outlook for passenger car business as Q1 profit falls
Utility Veolia confirms its outlook as Q1 core earnings rise
BNP Paribas Q1 net profit beats expectations thanks to market upturn
ING reports slight dip in first-quarter earnings
Andritz warns on 2019 profit as difficulties in metals unit persist
Carlsberg Q1 sales beat estimates; brewer maintains 2019 profit outlook
Hugo Boss earnings disappoint, U.S. market challenging
U.S, Australia drive 17 pct Q1 revenues growth at Paddy Power Betfair
British aero-engine maker Rolls Royce stuck to its full-year targets
(Josephine Mason)
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AS EUROPE REOPENS, FED MAY DOUSE STOCK RALLY (0530 GMT)
As euro-zone bourses reopen this morning after the May Day holiday, it might be a bit of a
bruising start for the first trading day in May, with spreadbetters calling markets lower after
the Fed chairman Jerome Powell disappointed the doves overnight signalling little appetite to
adjust interest rates any time soon as economic growth improves.
Markets in Denmark and the UK were the only ones open yesterday and Asian trading overnight
was quiet with major centres - Japan and China - still shut for holidays.
Financial spreadbetters expect London's FTSE to open 31 points lower at 7,354, extending
yesterday's losses which saw blue chips close near one-month lows, Frankfurt's DAX to open 32
points lower at 12,312, and Paris' CAC to open 36 points lower at 5,551.
Later today, we get a glimpse into the state of the UK economy when the BoE decides on rates
- it's expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged, but investors will be hoping for indications
on how things may fare later in the year as we get closer to the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline.
More optimism in all things trade though after Politico reported The U.S. and China are
nearing a deal that would roll back a portion of the $250 billion in U.S. tariffs on Chinese
goods.
There's also a raft of earnings news to digest - more on that later.
(Josephine Mason)
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(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Josephine Mason and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)