LIVE MARKETS-Happy birthday Bull, are you a cub?

LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity

markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Julien Ponthus. Reach

him on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves:

julien.ponthus.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BULL, ARE YOU A CUB? (1515 GMT)

Quite a lot of research notes today on the anniversary of the bull market, which started

precisely 9 years ago when Wall Street hit its lowest level during the financial crisis.

Because the S&P is still below its 2018 highs after getting knocked by the February

correction, there is no certainty we are actually celebrating a nine-year bull. According to

permabears, this 9-year-old uncastrated male bovine could very well be a bear cub.

Most analysts are optimistic though.

"We do not share this concern. There is a natural tendency towards growth in the U.S.

economy. Expansions do not die of old age, but because of policy actions or major exogenous

events," writes Ed Cowart, a fund manager at Nordea, who believes growth is here to stay at the

moment.

According to Reuters' quarterly poll, consensus is indeed that the bull will

reach 10. In an earlier post today for example, a BNP Paribas (LSE: 0HB5.L - news) strategist said he believed the

bottom of the February correction was behind us.

Here's Reuters' global stocks poll http://tmsnrt.rs/2nHJiJ9

Whatever happens from here, for some equity investors, at least retrospectively, celebration

is in order.

"The S&P 500 has actually outperformed all other assets in our sample, delivering a total

return of a whopping 389%. The Russian MICEX (+369%), Hang Seng (+271%), Nikkei (+256%), DAX

(+235%) and Stoxx 600 (+226%) follow with similarly impressive returns," DB's strategist Jim

Reid noted this morning.

Random fact: the STOXX 600 is up about 143 percent since March 9 2009, which is roughly the

growth rate of a newborn baby (50cm) till their ninth birthday (128 cm). Draw your own

conclusions - or not.

Below, a photo of German celebrity polar bear cub Knut taken in March 2007.

(Julien Ponthus)

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WOEFUL WEEK FOR ADVERTISERS (1501 GMT)

From ad agencies to billboard companies, it's been a difficult week for the advertising

industry.

Advertising behemoth WPP (Frankfurt: A1J2BZ - news) is the worst-performing on the FTSE today having been hit

earlier this week (along with peer Publicis (Paris: FR0000130577 - news) ) by reports consumer giant P&G plans

massive cuts to its ad agency spending.

RBS (LSE: RBS.L - news) ' marketing director also reportedly said the bank plans to move more advertising

internally, and traders point to this as further weighing on the shares. (http://bit.ly/2FxqulS)

All this bad news comes just a week after WPP's results, which revealed the agency struggled

to keep pace with changes in advertising, caused shares to tumble more than 14 percent.

The stock is near its lowest level since October 2014.

"Deeper pockets competing for creative talent (at Google/Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB - news) , consultants and the

brands themselves), disintermediation (digital), new pricing policies (reverse auctions,

zero-based budgeting) and so on, all pose secular threats that are far from played out," wrote

Northern Trust's Gary Paulin.

He points out Nike (Sao Paolo: NIKE34.SA - news) has switched to a reverse auction system - in which the company collects

pricing information from its agencies before updating contracts - seen as a sign that clients

are seeking the lowest bidders. Even (Taiwan OTC: 6436.TWO - news) for Nike, it seems, gone are the days of no-holds-barred

marketing spending.

Billboard advertising is also under pressure: JCDecaux (LSE: 0MGO.L - news) , the world leader in

outdoor advertising, said growth would slow in the first quarter, causing further falls in the

stock which is now down 11 percent year-to-date.

Overall European media stocks are intensely disliked by analysts who've been downgrading

earnings for much of the past year.

(Helen Reid)

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SMALL, BUT MIGHTY (1420 GMT)

Good news for small-cap investors: UBS (LSE: 0QNR.L - news) analysts say smaller stocks are likely to continue to

outperform their larger peers in an environment of rising rates as an end to QE sidles into

view.

UBS identified materials and industrials as top performers during previous tightening cycles

(see their graphic below - note that they use MSCI (Frankfurt: 3HM.F - news) indexes for reference). They estimate that 80

percent of European small-caps are in such cyclical industries, versus 55 percent for

large-caps.

Europe's STOXX small-cap index has risen around 95 percent since 2012, while the

STOXX large-cap index has gained 45 percent.

(Kit Rees)

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U.S. JOB REPORT SENDS EUROPEAN SHARES TO SESSION HIGH (1345 GMT)

European shares went from flat to a clear upward trend, rising 0.4 percent to a session

high, after the U.S. job report showed employers beefed up their hiring in February, but wage

gains, slowed, easing inflation and rate hikes fears.

A Reuters analysis showed that traders continued to price-in just a one-in-four chance of a

fourth rate hike this year.

It was the upbeat jobs data last month that fanned speculation of faster rate rises in the

United States, causing a rout in the bond market and hammering world equities.

A jump in the hourly earnings data above the expected 2.8 percent could have cemented

expectations of four Fed hikes.

(Julien Ponthus)

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BREAKNECK RISE IN TECH STOCKS EXPECTED TO SLOW (1256 GMT)

The tech leadership that has been an engine of stock markets worldwide may begin to weaken,

UBS reckons, as a changing interest rate environment makes the sector relatively less

attractive.

"The technology sectors - especially software and semiconductors - have been market leaders

for over three years but as rates rise and overall economic growth improves, making Tech's

structural growth relatively less attractive, that leadership looks likely to fade," they write,

closing their overweight recommendation on software.

"We remain neutral as the sector should continue to see decent earnings growth, just not at

the levels it has been accustomed to over the last few years."

This week, financials were the winners, drawing in $1 billion according to BAML's Flow Show,

while tech funds saw $0.2 billion of outflows.

BAML notes, however, the huge dominance of tech stocks: the U.S. tech market cap is $7

trillion, dwarfing the whole of emerging markets ($5.6 trillion) and the euro zone ($4.9

trillion). That empire won't fall overnight.

(Helen Reid)

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WE'VE TOUCHED THE BOTTOM (1205 GMT)

Of the correction that is, believes Edmund Shing, global head of equity and derivatives

strategy at BNP Paribas.

During a call with reporters, he argued that when compared with patterns of previous

corrections that occurred during a bull market, there was a case to see markets having touched

their low point.

Here's his chart showing a bull market correction usually materialises in a W shape curve:

"I think we have touched the second bottom ...I believe it will push us back to, or even

beyond the recent highs that we saw at the beginning of the year, and that's true for the S&P

and I think it will be true also for Europe and Japan in particular", he says.

He adds he is particularly optimistic for Euro zone equities, citing the "potent drivers" of

both domestic and internal demand.

"There's really quite a lot of scope for European companies to expand their profit margins,"

he reckons, which could prove a "real boost for the euro zone equity markets".

Within that segment he points out that French midcaps are particularly well positioned to

profit from the economic environment as well as the structural reforms implemented by President

Emmanuel Macron.

(Julien Ponthus)

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TURBULENCE IS GOOD... FOR INVESTMENT BANKING REVENUES (1016 GMT)

Market turmoil since the start of the year has likely created a better environment for

investment banks, say UBS analysts. "You wanted higher volatility and higher rates, you got

them," they quip.

Q1 guidance from CS and Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) point to a strong start to the year, they say, after a

spike in volatility punctured the sluggish trading environment many banks have blamed for slower

performance.

For equities in particular it's shaping up to be a good quarter for the banks with strong

exchange volumes pointing to higher trading activity. Turbulence is less good for the investment

banking division, however, weighing on corporate and advisory business segments.

UBS also crunched the numbers on European and U.S. banks' market share in equities over the

past years:

(Helen Reid)

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EUROPEAN SHARES CAUTIOUSLY IN THE RED (0848 GMT)

European shares opened slightly lower with most sectors in the red except defensives such as

healthcare or utilities. Investors held their nerves after the announcement of U.S. tariffs and

the focus has now turned to the U.S. jobs report later today.

German industrial output data did little to lift sentiment as did the few corporate earnings

published this morning.

(Julien Ponthus)

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HEDGE FUND SHORTING OF EUROPEAN EQUITIES AT FIVE-YEAR HIGH (0814 GMT)

Despite weeks of upgrades to European earnings and positive macro newsflow, international

hedge fund investor interest in Europe "feels as low as it has ever been", say Morgan Stanley (Xetra: 885836 - news)

analysts, who point out a steady rise in short exposure to its highest in at least five years.

The MS Prime Brokerage data on European hedge fund positioning also shows European hedge

fund overall net exposure close to a five-year low at 33%.

Link to graphic: http://reut.rs/2Fmti9M

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)

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NO PANIC IN EUROPE AS TRUMP FOLLOWS THROUGH ON TARIFFS (0748 GMT)

There's a sense of disbelief among some market analysts as the announcement of new U.S.

tariffs, which had been stoking fears of a global trade war, fails to deliver the predicted

sell-off.

“It’s a very strange world indeed when the long anticipated confirmation of a 25% tariff on

steel and 10% on aluminium prompts stock markets to close higher”, writes Michael Hewson of CMC (Shanghai: 600327.SS - news)

Markets.

Some relief too on the Korean front, with the North offering "denuclearisation" and offering

to hold the first ever U.S.-North Korea summit.

But the main point of focus will be the U.S. jobs report at 1330 GMT.

It was the upbeat jobs data last month that fanned speculation of faster rate rises in the

United States, causing a rout in the bond market and hammering world equities. A jump in the

hourly earnings data above the expected 2.8 percent could cement expectations of four Fed hikes

in 2018.

German industrial output fell unexpectedly in January, data showed on Friday, adding to

signs that factories in Europe's largest economy are operating at a slower pace at the start of

the year.

Here's a round-up of overnight corporate news headlines:

China Resources Beer in talks to acquire Heineken (LSE: 0O26.L - news) 's China business - sources

Shell (LSE: RDSB.L - news) , Blackstone (NYSE: BX - news) eye $10 bln bid for BHP U.S. shale assets -Sky News

Swiss bank Raiffeisen's chairman steps down amid probe of ex-CEO

Italy's Ferragamo rules out sale as troubles continue

Daimler (IOB: 0NXX.IL - news) , Volvo Cars executives sceptical over Geely alliance plan nL5N1QP3EP]

Labour union calls strike at Deutsche Telekom (IOB: 0MPH.IL - news) over pay

Inmarsat (Other OTC: IMASF - news) cuts dividend to fund investment in aviation business​

France's Lagardere (Paris: FR0000130213 - news) says future of Elle magazine "a question"

France's TF1 (Paris: FR0000054900 - news) and Orange (LSE: 0OQV.L - news) sign a new distribution deal on channels

UK's SIG (Frankfurt: 888153 - news) full-year profit rises 4.3 pct

BRIEF-SSAB (LSE: 0KII.L - news) comments on impact of U.S. steel tariffs

(Julien Ponthus, Tom Pfeiffer)

*****

EUROPEAN FUTURES OPEN SLIGHTLY LOWER, U.S. JOB REPORT IN FOCUS (0715 GMT)

European futures have opened slightly lower as investors, already trying to read through the

consequences of the new U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs and a possible meeting between North

Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump, brace themselves for the U.S. job report at 1330

GMT.

It was the upbeat jobs data last month that fanned speculation of faster rate rises in the

United States, causing a rout in the bond market and hammering world equities.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

MORNING CALL: EUROPEAN SHARES SEEN FLAT AT THE OPEN (0616 GMT)

Financial spreadbetters expect London's FTSE to open 2 points higher, Frankfurt's DAX 8

points down and Paris' CAC to edge down 5 points.

Asian shares pared sharp early gains ahead of U.S. payrolls data which could hasten Federal

Reserve rate hikes, and as some caution set in about the new entente between North Korean leader

Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump.

On the protectionism front, the mood has brightened a little after Trump pressed ahead with

tariffs but offered conditional exemptions for Canada and Mexico, offering at least the hope

that a full-blown global trade war could be averted.

(Julien Ponthus)

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