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LIVE MARKETS-The infectious TTT travels from China, via Europe to Latam

* European stocks turn negative after opening higher * Trump restores Brazil, Argentina tariffs, sinking European stocks * European manufacturing PMIs beat forecasts * Pan-European STOXX 600 down 0.6% Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Julien Ponthus. Reach him on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: THE INFECTIOUS TTT TRAVELS FROM CHINA VIA EUROPE TO LATAM (1402 GMT) TTT = Trump tariff threat. This morning's rally in Europe is nowhere to be seen now: stocks have gone from +0.5% to -0.6% in the last couple of hours as Trump's tariff tweets are back. No, it's not the U.S.-China trade war this time, it's Latam: "Brazil and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies, which is not good for our farmers. Therefore, effective immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum that is shipped into the U.S. from those countries," Trump tweets. Brazil's President Bolsonaro said he could speak directly with President Donald Trump on the tariffs. Now Trump has locked horns with the World's fourth (China) and the fifth (Brazil) biggest country by landmass and of course with the entire continent of Europe (looming car tariffs, Airbus-Boeing spat). And this also marks a weak December start for the pan-European STOXX 600. Meanwhile, Spain's blue-chip index IBEX 35 is sharply down (-1.3%) given its Latam exposure. Adding to the woes: the World Trade Organization has found the European Union has failed to withdraw all subsidies to planemaker Airbus, according to sources, a decision likely to permit the U.S. to maintain tariffs on European goods. (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** THAT UNEASY, LONELY, BEARISH FEELING (1325 GMT) It's not easy being a bear during the longest bull market in history. "The feedback from this past week suggests that we at UniCredit Research are now among the most bearish forecasters when it comes to the 2020 outlook, a rather unusual feeling to be honest", Erik Nielsen, the bank's chief economist, wrote in his Sunday wrap. Nielsen had spent much of last week presenting his 2020-21 outlook in which he expects "global growth to slow further as the U.S. moves towards a mild recession, probably during the second half of 2020". "Most interlocutors doubt that U.S. growth will ease much so long at monetary conditions remain this accommodative", he said adding that some of his clients also believe Trump will do what's needed to avoid a recession during his reelection campaign. "Who knows who’ll turn out to be right, but I find it difficult to ignore our recession probability models, which all point to a 50%-60% chance of a U.S. recession within a year", he added. The consensual view however is that growth isn't expected to rebound. "While there is a good deal of pushback on our 2020 forecast, there is a greater degree of agreement on the prospect of lower global trend growth over the longer term". (Julien Ponthus) **** 2019, THE GOLDEN AGE'S LAST HURRAH? Interesting fact from Dylan Grice from Calderwood Capital Research: U.S. bonds actually returned more between 1980 and now - 8.3% - than the 8% reached by equities between 1980 and 1880. In a piece that argues that "the last four decades have been a golden age for duration assets", Grice takes the view that "the secular run in government bonds is now over". In a nutshell, he believes that our "bull market in everything" has largely been triggered by slowing inflation and could end "by reversion to a world of higher inflation". He also makes a bold prediction: "2019 is the last hurrah. The next ten years will see credit, public equity, private equity and venture return 0% in real annualised terms". (Julien Ponthus) ***** BOTTOMING OUT? (1103 GMT) We have seen an array of positive data from European manufacturing this morning (see below) and there seems to be plenty of reasons for optimism, not least with the global manufacturing PMI rising for three consecutive months. Global growth is bottoming out and key risks are now reduced, Deutsch Bank analysts argue in a research note published today. DB sees signs of improvements in the main topics which have made headlines in 2019: 1 - Progress in the US-China trade talks 2 - Brexit developments with polls giving signs that the Conservatives will gain a large majority, which will likely facilitate the path toward a negotiated Brexit, rather than a no-deal exit 3- Recession risk in Europe still high but manufacturing sentiment has stopped declining, especially in Germany (Joice Alves) ***** ART - A $1.7 TRILLION ASSET CLASS (1015 GMT) Just imagine if Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa, one of the world's most famous painting, was trading on the Paris 'Arts' Exchange? Citi deep dives into the art market and some of those numbers does make us wonder, what if this was an asset that could be a part of a hedge fund portfolio? Art as an asset class has its scope with world's ultra-high net worth individuals owning art & collectibles worth a whopping $1.74 trillion - that's almost as much as Canada's GDP. "In recent decades, investors have increasingly categorized art as a type of ‘alternative’ asset class alongside hedge funds, private equity and real estate," Citi Private Bank strategists say. "Art could gain increasing recognition as an investment asset class over time given its rate of return and lack of correlation with major asset classes". With 5.3% annualized returns since 1985 and with limited correlation to top ten asset classes, art continues to act as a portfolio diversifier. Here's a cool chart on the annualized returns from art and other asset classes: (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** EUROPEAN PMIS: GOOD NEWS, MUTED REACTION (0959 GMT) Positive data from European manufacturing this morning added to the good news from China and is yet another sign that the "bottoming out" narrative is building up its cred. The UK, Germany, Spain and France all got their PMIs above the Reuters poll. Interesting to note that the STOXX 600 and the main European bourses seem to have reached a peak at the end of the good news salvo. Here are the PMIs results: (Julien Ponthus) ***** OPENING SNAPSHOT: UP IT IS!(0828 GMT) The mood is a bit better than expected across European stocks exchanges, with most indexes and sectors comfortably in the black on that feel-good manufacturing data coming from China. The pan-European STOXX 600 is rising 0.5%, boosted by mining and oil stocks. In terms of individual movers, a lot of the action is coming from London with Ted Baker, down 9 percent on the accounting/inventory error. British online retailer Ocado is the biggest loser on the STOXX 600 with a 4 percent fall after issuing new convertible bonds. On the same index, Tullow Oil is the top performer with a 4.5% rise on reports it agreed to sell stake in its Ugandan oil fields. In terms of big winners, Denmark's Chemometec jumped over 10% after hiring a new CEO. The departure of the incumbent triggered an 18 pct fall on Friday. Let's see if sentiment stays the same after all the European manufacturing data is published this morning. (Julien Ponthus) ***** ON THE RADAR: TED BAKER, CHEMOMETEC AND DEUTSCHE BANK (0745 GMT) It wasn't expected to be a particularly busy day in terms of corporate news but there should nevertheless be a bit of market price action at the open with notably Ted Baker, which just announced that the value of its inventory has been overstated. Another likely volatile stock is Denmark’s Chemometec, which has appointed a new CEO after the unexpected departure of the incumbent triggered a 18% fall Friday. Deutsche Bank will also be closely watched with a Reuters exclusive indicating the lender’s role in the Danske money laundering scandal is being thoroughly investigated in the U.S. In M&A, the takeover battle for Just Eat is also in the spotlight after shareholder Cat Rock Capital said offer should be accepted unless Prosus ups its bid to 925p. Unicredit’s sale of a stake in Turkey’s Yapi could also give the Italian lender a little boost at the open. In Switzerland the ongoing dispute for of Schmolz+Bickenbach could also make some sparkle. Lastly Premier Oil announced a gas discovery which could cheer up investors. (Julien Ponthus) ***** MORNING CALL: SOME OPTIMISM RISING IN THE EAST (0629 GMT) European bourses are expected to open higher for their first day of trading in December thanks to upbeat China manufacturing surveys and hopes (yes, sorry, you've read that before) that the world's second economy and the United States will do a preliminary trade deal. On the first point, a few salvos of European Manufacturing PMIs this morning should also help investors decide whether the old continent's economy is indeed bottoming out. Financial spreadbetters see London's FTSE opening 32 points higher, Frankfurt's DAX to gain 51 points and Paris' CAC to rise 15 points. (Julien Ponthus) ***** (Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)

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