LIVE MARKETS-Inflation: the biggest threat of them all
* STOXX 600 inches lower; Italian stocks underperform
* IWG (LSE: IWG.L - news) rallies after three rival suitors make approaches
* Chinese takeover bid boosts EDP
* Morgan Stanley (Xetra: 885836 - news) upgrades UK equities to "overweight"
* Healthcare (Shanghai: 603313.SS - news) gains as Trump avoids direct measures to cut prices
May 14 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to
you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her on Messenger to
share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
INFLATION: THE BIGGEST THREAT OF THEM ALL (1245 GMT)
We just had a meeting with Paul O'Connor, head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors,
and asked him what was the biggest risk to the assets he manages. His answer was unequivocal and
had little to do with Italian politics, Iran or Korea.
"I think the biggest threat to our constructive long cycle view is inflation," he answered.
While he believes the current bull market still has fuel in its engine, "an inflation shock"
would constitute a "game changer" for multi-asset managers and further accelerate the repricing
of risk experienced since the start of 2018.
It would create a "risk-off" environment which would be hard to hedge by definition with
fixed-income and equities both suffering, he said.
Investors did get a taste of that during the February sell-off when U.S. inflation fears
hammered both bonds and stocks in a messy spike in volatility.
O'Connor said he also kept an eye out for a possible escalation in trade disputes and made
an interesting point: one of the "channels" by which the Iranian crisis could really hit markets
may be through a stand-off between the U.S. and Europe on the issue, exacerbating the steel and
aluminium tariffs dispute.
(Julien Ponthus and Claire Milhench)
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MID-SESSION SNAPSHOT: INCHING LOWER (1219 GMT)
There are no big catalysts around to provide a clear direction to European share trading and
while easing U.S.-China trade tensions look to be helping Wall Street futures gain, the broader
STOXX 600 pan-regional index is down a touch.
The heavyweight financial sector is the main drag, although its losses were partly offset by
fresh dealmaking activity (IWG, EDP) and a recovery in healthcare stocks.
Looking at country benchmarks the picture is rather mixed with political developments in
Italy keeping the FTSE MIB on track to end at a two-week closing low, while gains among
drugmakers are buoying the Swiss index SMI.
(Danilo Masoni)
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ITALY: EXPECTANT INVESTORS FRET ABOUT FISCAL POLICY (1144 GMT)
A 5-Star and League government has gone from investors' worst-case scenario to imminent
reality - and although Italian stocks are down 0.8 percent now, underperforming European peers
today, overall the market's reaction has been very muted, which analysts agree is surprising.
"Maybe investors think Italy will go the way of Portugal, where the new government unpicked
reforms," offer Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news) analysts.
Investors are certainly concerned, though, particularly about high levels of government
spending.
"If there is one clear agreement between the main parties it concerns their calls for looser
fiscal policy," note Nomura analysts.
Both parties back a big tax cut, repeal of pension reform and a basic income, which would
increase Italy's debt levels.
"We think the IMF underestimates the level of debt that Italy will have to sustain in the
period ahead," say Nomura.
"A lack of fiscal discipline in combination with some reform reversals could potentially sow
the seeds of a new Italian crisis once the current cyclical upswing is over," Berenberg
economist Carsten Hesse writes, adding the risks are long-term rather than "imminent" (which
might explain the market's sanguine reaction).
The two parties are likely to pick a consensual figure as Prime Minister, and are going to
the presidential palace to present their candidate later this afternoon. If the President is
satisfied with their choice, Italy could have a government in place by the end of the week.
(Helen Reid)
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"STILL TOO EARLY" TO GO DEFENSIVE (1042 GMT)
That's what analysts from both Citi and JP Morgan think, as some investors have been turning
more bearish on growth-sensitive cyclicals and advocating a turn into the safer, defensive part
of the market.
The main bear argument, that a rollover in macroeconomic momentum is likely to derail
cyclicals, isn't convincing, they reckon.
"The activity momentum has peaked, but that is behind us and the 'new news' is a likely
stabilisation in growth momentum into summer," argue analysts at JP Morgan.
"When Eurozone CESI (Citi Economic Surprise Index) hits -90, cyclicals tended to strongly
outperform defensives over the next 6-12 months," they write (see chart below).
And the drivers needed to support defensives aren't quite there yet.
"Equity fund managers should continue to steer clear of Defensives despite sharp
underperformance and de-rating since mid-2016," say Citi analysts. "Defensive sectors score at
the bottom of our 8-factor fundamental model and need a macro regime change to outperform."
Key for the cyclicals/defensives trade is, of course, the direction of bond yields - and in
the Euro zone especially analysts say they are far from peaking.
JPM remains underweight most defensives including staples, pharma, real estate and U.S. and
UK utilities. The only defensive they like is continental non-regulated utilities.
(Helen Reid)
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HEALTHCARE RECOVERS (0946 GMT)
Turning to sectors, the outstanding gainer today in Europe is healthcare and its gains look
ultimately linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's latest announcement on Friday on drug
pricing.
Although he blasted drugmakers and healthcare "middlemen" for making prescription medicines
unaffordable for Americans, his administration stopped short of aggressive direct measures to
cut prices.
That drove U.S.-listed drugmakers higher on Friday and the good mood has spilled over to
Europe this morning.
"(It's a) sentiment story...," says a Frankfurt-based trader.
Meanwhile, the STOXX 600 Healthcare index is up 0.8 percent, rising back near
3-month highs and leading sectoral gainers, adding the most points to the STOXX 600.
(Danilo Masoni)
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M&A DRIVES THE DAY WHILE MORGAN STANLEY JUMPS ON UK EQUITIES BANDWAGON (0928 GMT)
Once again, it's all about dealmaking today with IWG and EDP leading the
STOXX after takeover offers.
Portuguese energy firm EDP is an interesting one because it's risen well above the offer
price, and JP Morgan analysts reckon management could ask for China Three Gorges to better its
bid. The deal is also likely to face regulatory obstacles as it has to be cleared by the U.S.,
Poland, France, Romania, Brazil and Canada.
European leaders have been growing more tetchy about Chinese acquisitions of European
strategic businesses like utilities, with Macron in January pressing the EU for a united front
on foreign takeovers.
Generally this year is shaping up to be one of the strongest for global M&A volumes.
"With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) strong earnings growth companies are looking to expand their revenues via
acquisitions," says Edward Park, investment director at Brooks Macdonald (LSE: BRK.L - news) .
"The low cost of financing also plays a part, with a relatively low hurdle in terms of
additional profit required from synergies to justify a bolt-on acquisition," he adds.
Meanwhile, M&A is one of the reasons Morgan Stanley cites for its upgrade of UK equities to
"overweight". MS joins a growing crowd of brokers singing the praises of the UK market which is,
according to them, undervalued (see their chart below).
"Attractive micro trumps uncertain macro" in the UK, MS strategists say, and the stock
market should benefit from higher commodity prices and rising corporate activity.
(Helen Reid)
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW BEFORE THE OPEN (0649 GMT)
European stock futures are pointing up, tracking Asian markets higher as U.S.-China tensions
show signs of easing ahead of a second round of trade talks.
Investors were shrugging off the progress in talks between Italy’s 5-Star Movement and
League. SocGen (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) analysts admits this was their “worst-case scenario” a couple of months ago but
now that it’s materializing, they are focusing on the fact a weaker government would find it
harder to push through fiscal policies they see as counterproductive. Italy’s FTSE MIB is one of
the best-performing equity indices worldwide year-to-date as the market focuses on a stronger
economy.
Results are still coming in with 75 percent of MSCI Europe companies having reported
first-quarter earnings thus far. Energy is easily leading the way with 10.5 percent earnings
growth, while overall earnings growth is flat. Revisions for second-quarter earnings are
trending higher, though, an indication investors think the worst may be over for European
corporates pressured by, among other things, a strong currency.
M&A continues to be a major driver, with China Three Gorges the latest foreign investor
snapping up a European company, buying up Portuguese energy firm EDP. EDP is set to gain 3 to 10
percent at the open.
British serviced office provider IWG received takeover approaches from three rival suitors
on Friday after the close, potentially plunging it into a bidding war. Its shares are seen up 10
to 20 percent today. AccorHotels meanwhile sealed another deal to buy a foreign hotel chain.
(Helen Reid)
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EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES UP AS ITALY GOVERNMENT TALKS FAIL TO SHAKE THE MARKET (0614 GMT)
Talks between Italy's anti-establishment 5-Star and the far-right League to form a
government don't seem to have investors too worried, with futures pointing to gains across
Europe's major benchmarks.
Italy's FTSE MIB has been one of the best-performing equity indices worldwide this year,
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS-PB - news) analysts note, while most of its European counterparts are flat.
"We think it is unlikely that investors will perceive Italian political developments as a
systemic threat to euro area institutions or growth, in the near term," they write.
Here's your snapshot:
(Helen Reid)
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EARLY MORNING EUROPEAN HEADLINE ROUND-UP (0553 GMT)
Analysts are getting their heads round the progress in Italian government talks. "A Five
Star/League coalition government is taking shape," note SocGen analysts. "This was our
worst-case scenario three months ago. However, this government is unlikely to have enough
political and fiscal room for manoeuvre to deliver a large fiscal slippage, as indicated in the
two platforms."
But there's also plenty of results and other company news to keep traders and investors busy
today.
In what could be a big step for the nascent technology underlying cryptocurrencies, banks
HSBC and ING say they've performed the world's first trade finance transaction using
blockchain.
In other news, results and M&A - both inbound and outbound:
France's AccorHotels strikes deal to buy Chile (Stuttgart: 704599.SG - news) hotel group Atton
ABN Amro Q1 profit falls 3 pct on loan impairments
Innogy's Npower grows operating profit in Q1
K+S Q1 core profit rises 7 pct on rising volumes
HelloFresh Raises 2018 Revenue Growth Outlook
Bayer CFO sees lower Monsanto (Hamburg: 1132157.HM - news) synergies after divestments -Boersen-Zeitung
Ryanair target Laudamotion dumps Zurich flights due to plane shortage
China Three Gorges launches $10.8 bln bid for Portuguese power firm EDP
(Helen Reid)
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MORNING CALL: EUROPEAN STOCKS TO RISE ON FADING TRADE TENSIONS (0536 GMT)
European stocks are set to follow the Asian trend up this morning after last week ended on a
high. Progress in talks between Italy's Five Star and League towards forming a government don't
seem to have overly shaken the market, with the euro hardly moved.
Asian shares rose to near two-month highs on hopes U.S.-China trade tensions were thawing
after Trump pledged to help ZTE Corp (Xetra: A0M4ZP - news) "get back into business, fast" ahead of a second round of
trade talks between officials this week.
Italy's 5-Star Movement and far-right League called the head of state on Sunday to report on
their progress towards naming a prime minister. The two have been trying to find an independent
figure without allegiance to either party to rule the government.
Germany's DAX - which is very exposed to China and trade - is called up 29 points at 13,030,
the CAC 40 is seen opening 10 points higher at 5,552, and the FTSE 100 is expected to open 1
point lower at 7,723 points.
(Helen Reid)
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(Reporting by Helen Reid, Danilo Masoni, Julien Ponthus and Kit Rees)