LIVE MARKETS-Making the case for a German fiscal expansion

* European shares tread water * STOXX 600 flat after slightly negative start * JPM raises euro-zone stocks to "overweight" * ECB's Draghi emphasises need for fiscal push * Asian shares mostly flat Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Josephine Mason. Reach her on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: rm://josephine.mason.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net MAKING THE CASE FOR A GERMAN FISCAL EXPANSION (1045 GMT) Goldman has weighed in on the debate about fiscal stimulus and while it agrees with a widespread view that a shock would be needed to convince Germany to open the purse strings, it argues that the case for Europe's No. 1 economy to do so is compelling. Their case for a sizeable German fiscal expansion levers on three three key points. 1. Germany has significant fiscal space: "Germany could expand fiscal policy by about 1% of GDP in 2020 without seeking an exception from its 'debt brake'rule" 2. Sizeable effects on German growth: "ECB is unlikely to respond to a German fiscal expansion with tighter policy. Moreover, fiscal 'multipliers' tend to be larger in low-debt economies and during recessions." 3. Welcome spillover effects: "Germany is a very open economy and trade patterns suggest that stronger German demand would provide greatest support to EMU member states that most need it, notably Italy." Meanwhile, ECB's Draghi has once again emphasised the need for fiscal policy, saying in an interview with the Financial Times that that was more urgent than before. His comments have helped lift euro-zone bond yields to one-week highs, which in turn is underpinning shares in the battered banking sector, last up 0.8%. (Danilo Masoni) ***** EUROPE: BUY OR NOT TO BUY (0859 GMT) The prospect of central bank stimulus is already having effect. JPMorgan has upgraded euro zone equities to overweight and back in July BlackRock did the same - both citing expectations of a dovish ECB. That's surely positive for stocks in the region but macro data continues its negative run and many investors look unconvinced, as continued fund outflows indicate. "Over the past four weeks, we have seen some signs of funds buying U.S. equities at the expense of European equities," say HSBC strategists. They add European equity funds have seen over $100 bln outflows YTD with their proprietary analysis indicating global funds are rotating allocations out from Europe into the US. "Investors' negative outlook towards Europe can be attributed to slowing economic growth...," they say. "With Germany in outright recession and high economic policy uncertainty in the UK, we believe investors' outlook is unlikely to change soon." This chart shows that the gap between increasingly positive U.S. economic surprises and increasingly negative euro zone ones has widened to its highest since May 2018. (Danilo Masoni) ***** OPENING SNAPSHOT: TECH DRAGS, SPAIN SHINES (0735 GMT) European stocks open slightly lower, mainly dragged down by tech and telco stocks, as reports of Washington's plan to delist Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges raises fresh worries in U.S.-China trade row. Chip stocks are top underperformers tracking the sell-off in the U.S. Philadelphia Semiconductor exchange on Friday. Meanwhile, Spanish stocks are steadily rising this morning after the blue-chip index's IBEX underperformance this year. Among major single stock moves, Glaxosmithkline is rising 2% after encouraging trial results from its cancer therapy, niraparib. KPN is sliding 2% after the Dutch telco dropped appointment of Dominique Leroy as CEO. (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** MIXED PICTURE IN EUROPE (0650 GMT) European stocks are expected to end the month and quarter on a slightly weak note amid renewed concerns about the U.S.-China trade spat after a report that Washington is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges. Stock futures are pretty mixed, with Paris futures down 0.1% and Madrid up 0.2%. A rise in German retail sales in August has helped ease some worries that a slower pace of manufacturing would hurt consumer spending in Europe's top economy. In corporate news, Kloeckner shares are down more than 4% in pre-market trade after a local newspaper report that talks over a potential steel tie-up with ThyssenKrupp collapsed. In other dealmaking, Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto, has cancelled plans for the sale or floatation of its Canadian iron ore business, following unsuccessful attempts to find buyers, according to a Wall Street Journal report. KPN shares are seen down 5% after Dominique Leroy, the Belgian telecommunications executive who was slated to move the Dutch company, has been dropped as candidate to take the top job due to an investigation into a share sale. Leroy is under investigation for her sale of shares in Proximus, the company she was leaving. Shell is seen under pressure after it says it sees negative impact from foreign exchange in Q3 and a net charge of $700 million to $850 million in Q3, while BP may fall after a report CEO Bob Dudley is preparing to step down from the oil major. Here are some early headlines: Novartis says Kisqali boosts survival in breast cancer patients Italy investigates wife of Eni's CEO in Congo graft probe Results of GSK and AstraZeneca trials may widen ovarian cancer drug use EQT buys German fibre optic firm Inexio; source values deal around $1.1 bln Roche extends Spark offer again as regulatory review drags on Sunrise cuts rights issue to 2.8 bln Sfr in push to buy Liberty Global's UPC Rio Tinto scraps plans for Canadian iron ore unit sale, floatation - WSJ France blames XL Airways collapse on Oslo aid, appeals to EU Italy's Atlantia picks KPMG, Ramboll and SGS to conduct audit on units involved in probe Nestle, P&G say they will miss 2020 deforestation goals Evotec And Indivumed Reach Milestone In Joint Drug Discovery Collaboration KPN drops Leroy as CEO candidate amid investigation into share sale (Josephine Mason) ***** EUROPE ENDING Q3 ON LACKLUSTRE NOTE (0528 GMT) European stocks are expected to end the month and quarter largely on a slightly lacklustre note amid fresh worries about tensions between China and the United States. IG financial spreadbetters expect London's FTSE to open 4 points lower at 7,423, Frankfurt's DAX to open 10 points lower at 12,371, and Paris' CAC to open 7 points lower at 5,633. Chinese markets, which will shut for the rest of the week for national holidays, were slightly lower overnight after a report on Friday that the U.S. may limit Chinese company listings on its stock exchanges fueled the U.S.-China trade worries ahead of the critical October negotiations. Dust appears to have settled in the United States though, with Wall Street futures indicating a higher open later. Closer to home, transatlantic trade ties face renewed disruption this week when global arbiters are expected to grant the United States a record award allowing it to hit European imports with billions of dollars of tariffs in a long-running aircraft subsidy dispute. The pan European index and euro-zone benchmark closed last week at a one-week high, but notched up their first weekly drop in six as macroeconmic data renewed concerns about the health of the euro-zone economy and the U.S. impeachment probe of President Trump rattled investors. They are on track for a more than 3% rise this month and their third straight quarterly gain, although the pace of growth has slowed substantially from the double-digit percentage gains in Q1. (Josephine Mason) ***** (Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Josephine Mason, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)