LIVE MARKETS-Oil stocks resilient in late-cycle downturns

* European shares decline slightly

* IWG (LSE: IWG.L - news) drops after profit warning

* Energy sector, tech make gains

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity

markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her

on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

OIL STOCKS RESILIENT IN LATE-CYCLE DOWNTURNS (0940 GMT)

Want to keep your head above water in an equity market downturn? Buy oil stocks, says Morgan

Stanley (Shenzhen: 002588.SZ - news) .

Oil is the best-performing sector today, leading the market as crude prices rise on

tightening supply and after U.S. officials told importers to stop buying Iranian crude from

November.

MS analysts have done some number-crunching to find that oil, and oil services, are

generally a good bet in a downturn, especially late in the cycle.

"Looking ahead to a future downturn, we discover that both oils and oil services in both

U.S. and Europe outperformed the market in every downturn since 1976 and had the best average

performance during this period in both absolute and relative to the market terms," they write.

Oil & Gas equities averaged 22 percent outperformance in the 12 months following the peak in

the LEI (leading economic indicator), and 47 percent in the last three cycles, they find.

Oil stocks' performance gap with crude prices has narrowed as investors regained confidence

in the sector. It's now the best-performing sector in Europe year-to-date, giving even tech

stocks a run for their money.

(Helen Reid)

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OPENING SNAPSHOT: DRIFTING LOWER (0720 GMT)

European shares are inching lower after opening flat amid slim pickings on the company news

and macro fronts. For now, it looks like investors are waiting for further developments on

global trade ahead of the end of the first half.

Energy stocks are the biggest sectoral gainers as supply disruptions support the price of

crude, while tech stocks continue to be a popular trade in uncertain times.

Shares (Berlin: DI6.BE - news) in IWG are under pressure after the serviced office provider warned on profit, but

they remain up around 20 percent this year thanks to takeover interest.

Here's your opening snapshot:

(Kit Rees)

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WHAT'S ON THE RADAR FOR THE OPEN (0645 GMT)

It's set to be another feeble day for European stocks as investors' dread about higher

barriers to trade shows no signs of dissipating, with futures down 0.1 percent for the main

European benchmark.

The consequences of higher trade tariffs are starting to be felt not only in the autos

sector – where an association of automakers plans to warn Trump of a $45 billion extra cost to

U.S. consumers from tariffs – but the drinks industry too. Brown-Forman, the maker of Jack

Daniel’s, said it will raise prices on its whiskeys in some European countries to combat tariffs

slapped on U.S. bourbon.

Pernod Ricard (TLO: RI-U.TI - news) and Remy Cointreau (Swiss: RCO.SW - news) , Brown-Forman’s European rivals, could react to the move

which hurts the U.S. firm’s competitive position in Europe. The two French drinkmakers have been

flagged by traders as potential marginal winners from tariffs on U.S. bourbon which makes their

liquor cheaper for the all-important Asian market.

Commodities sectors could also be big movers. A rise in crude prices after U.S. officials

told oil importers to stop buying Iranian crude from November could support energy stocks, while

mining shares are likely to be weak after copper prices hit a 12-week low.

In European results and company news, shares in takeover target IWG are likely to fall after

it warned on profit, blaming the cost of opening new space and a weak performance in Britain.

It's indicated down just 3 percent though with traders saying the takeover interest will support

it despite the profit warning.

And data from mortgage lender Nationwide showing British house prices rose at their slowest

annual rate in five years this month could weigh on housebuilders’ shares. Ultra Electronics (Frankfurt: 909716 - news) is

also seen down as much as 5 percent after it took its profit guidance down by 4-6 million

pounds.

In other company news and potential stock movers:

UK house price growth falls to 5-year low of 2 pct – Nationwide;

Whitbread (Frankfurt: WHF4.F - news) says Costa demerger making 'good progress';

Engie (LSE: 0LD0.L - news) pushes emission solutions in China; in deal with real estate co.

(Helen Reid)

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FUTURES POINT TO A WILTING START FOR EUROPEAN STOCKS (0611 GMT)

It's actually not going to be a strong bounce today with little in the way of economic data

or company news to provide any relief or distraction from the overhanging dread about higher

barriers to trade. Euro area money supply figures are awaited, as well as French consumer

confidence and the Bank of England's Financial Stability Report.

Futures are down 0.1 percent for the main benchmarks, apart from the CAC 40 which is

managing a 0.1 percent rise.

"Markets appear to have gone risk on once again but remain wary of headlines on the trade

dispute," say Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news) analysts. "Many of the flows will be associated with book tidying

ahead of the end of H1."

(Helen Reid)

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EARLY MORNING HEADLINE ROUND-UP: WHISKY WARS (0554 GMT)

Politics and trade wars dominate headlines this morning: the deadlock in Germany's coalition

continues, an automakers' association plans to warn Trump of a $45 billion cost to American

consumers from tariffs on car imports, and Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman said it would hike

prices on its whiskeys in some European countries to combat tariffs slapped on U.S. bourbon.

Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau could move on that news hurting Brown-Forman's competitiveness

in the region.

Here are the headlines to watch:

Norway sells remainder stake in SAS (LSE: 0O1W.L - news) airline

Santander among potential buyers for SocGen (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) 's Polish bank- sources

No deal yet for German coalition over migrant row - CDU lawmaker

Automakers to warn Trump of $45 bln higher vehicle costs if tariff imposed

Brown-Forman to hike Jack Daniel's prices in Europe to counter tariffs

China Three Gorges sounds out interest in EDP's U.S. assets - sources

Gabon oil workers threaten 15-day strike at Total (LSE: 524773.L - news) facilities

(Helen Reid)

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A BIGGER BOUNCE FOR EUROPEAN STOCKS (0526 GMT)

European stocks are seen opening higher today after their weak bounce yesterday petered out

with investors still not convinced they should buy the dip. Rising crude prices are likely to

support Europe's energy stocks while on the other hand metals and mining stocks could be dented

as copper just hit a 12-week low.

Asian markets stayed under pressure as weakness in Chinese stocks and the yuan weighed on

sentiment, while oil climbed as the United States pressured allies to stop buying Iranian crude.

Spreadbetters expect the FTSE 100 to open 30 points higher at 7,568, the DAX to open 64

points higher at 12,299, and the CAC 40 to open 21 points higher at 5,302.

(Helen Reid)

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(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)