LIVE MARKETS-Can you predict a recession with car sales? Better hope not!

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity

markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her

on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

CAN YOU PREDICT A RECESSION WITH CAR SALES? BETTER HOPE NOT! (1145 GMT)

Just as a number of strategists like City are telling their clients it might be time to

reconsider investing in UK equities, a bunch of indicators this morning might give investors

cold feet.

While the "Beast from the East" weather episode may be partially blamed for the slowest

growth rate for British services businesses since the June 2016 Brexit vote, the slump in car

registration is definitely a worrying indicator.

Here's Reuters' Andy Bruce's chart which shows how one could be tempted to see car sales as

an early indicator of a recession in the UK:

Andy however noted on Twitter (Frankfurt: A1W6XZ - news) this morning that the car sales data could not be read on its

own without considering other indicators such as consumer confidence:

Here are this morning's stories:

* UK economy sags under weight of snow in March - IHS Markit (Stuttgart: A1139A - news)

* UK diesel sales slump by more than a third in key selling month March

(Julien Ponthus)

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WHAT'S DRIVING SWISS NATIONAL BANK SHARES? (1053 GMT)

Apparently nobody knows exactly why shares in SNB have risen so much since the start of the

year and for Swissquote (Stuttgart: 1SQ.SG - news) strategist Peter Rosenstreich it's a "crypto-style" move which

ultimately is exacerbated by little liquidity.

"Reasons for the rise are Switzerland's safe haven status, the SNB's current, negative

interest rates and even speculation that the central bank will morph into a sovereign wealth

fund similar to that in Norway. Investors can dream on, because SNB shareholders have no voting

rights and no say in general matters," he says.

"We believe the price spike is partly due to limited liquidity. Investors are scrambling to

buy the few available shares," he concludes.

After rising as much as 12 percent today to a fresh record high, SNB shares have turned

lower, now down more than 13 percent, perhaps underscoring the lack of fundamental reasons

behind its earlier gains. However, SNB shares are still up more than 100 percent so far this

year and up nearly 400 percent over the last 12 months, as you can see in this chart.

(Danilo Masoni)

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FAREWELL #EUROBOOM, HELLO #EURODOINGOKBUTNOLONGERTHATGREAT (1045 GMT)

Is it time to call an official end to the #Euroboom economic cycle and make peace with the

fact that the "peak growth" narrative is going mainstream? It sure does look like it.

Today's Markit (NasdaqGS: MRKT - news) 's revised down euro zone PMI is perhaps not the final nail in the hashtag's

coffin but it sure adds to widespread signs of growth moderating in the bloc.

This morning's German industrial orders also show that while activity remains robust,

"momentum has started to wane – a message that was also conveyed by the latest string of PMI

surveys", Rabobank noted.

"Europe's macro data is shifting away from "boom" territory and growth is no longer

accelerating", Citi also said in a note explaining why it downgraded the region's equities to

neutral, even if growth still remains above trend.

In this chart you can see how Citi’s economic surprise index for the bloc has fallen and is

now at its most negative since 2013.

"Growth is high but no longer accelerating" Natixis AM said in its April economic outlook,

adding that prospects were slightly better in the U.S. than in the euro zone due to Trump's tax

cuts and infrastructure spending plan.

But more than just the end of the #Euroboom, other analysts predict that its actually the

end of wider global theme.

"The 'Global Synchronized Recovery' narrative got really tired by the end of last year, says

INTL FCStone Vincent Deluard who believes investors "fell in love" and bought, maybe a bit too

eagerly, the idea of a sustainable long lasting self powered new economic cycle.

Here is his chart showing signs that the end of 2017 could have been the top of the cycle:

(Julien Ponthus with Helen Reid)

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"BUY THE (BIGGER) DIPS" (0923 GMT)

This is what Citi's strategists led by Robert Buckland recommend clients do as they expect

global equities to rise 8 percent by the end of this year, even though it won't be plain

sailing.

"This is the period later in the cycle when credit spreads turn upwards. Equities keep

making new highs but with increased volatility. The dips get bigger, bubbles inflate and

growth/momentum strategies outperform," they say, sticking to their preference for cyclical over

defensive stocks.

In the snapshot Citi's year-end targets for the top global stock indexes.

(Danilo Masoni)

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OPENING SNAPSHOT: TRADE WAR RELIEF RALLY SPREADS TO EUROPE (0717 GMT)

European bourses have started the day sharply higher as the trade war relief rally which

boosted Wall Street and Asia spreads through global markets.

Hopes that the trade salvos between China and the U.S. were tactical rather than the

beginning of an escalating world trade conflagration have buoyed markets, but the question is:

is that the right assumption?

(Julien Ponthus)

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WHAT'S ON THE RADAR BEFORE THE OPEN (0651 GMT)

European stocks are set to jump sharply today, following a relief rally on Wall Street and

Asian markets. Futures are up 1.2 to 1.6 percent across the major benchmarks, with Germany’s DAX

– the market most exposed to China – leading the way.

Results from Sophos should push the stock up by 2 to 10 percent, with pre-market

indications giving a wide range. The cybersecurity firm said billings growth for the year would

be towards the top end of guidance. Electrocomponents (LSE: ECM.L - news) is also called up 2 to 4 percent

after its margin exceeded expectations.

In the latest development in the M&A moves in commercial real estate, Britain’s Hammerson

has said it would sit tight and delay finalizing documents for its acquisition of Intu (Swiss: OXIGTU.SW - news)

until it gets clarity from French firm Klepierre (LSE: 0F4I.L - news) , whose first bid for

Hammerson (Frankfurt: 876140 - news) was rejected last month. The deadline for a formal bid is April 16.

"With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) the possibility of a bid from Klépierre pushing the share price up, and the prospect

of Hammerson buying Intu pulling the shares down (plus the possibility of neither deal achieving

shareholder approval), the ultimate trajectory of the shares will be determined by the outcome

of the current three-way confrontation," write Stifel analysts.

(Helen Reid)

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FUTURES POINT TO ROARING START FOR EUROPE (0620 GMT)

European stock futures have opened sharply higher, trading up 1 to 1.3 percent across the

major benchmarks, indicating a robust relief rally.

Hammerson has just said its board won't finalise shareholder documents for the proposed

acquisition of Intu until Klepierre, the French firm which bid for Hammerson last month, decides

on a formal bid (the deadline is April 16).

Here are some of the other corporate headlines this morning:

Clariant (IOB: 0QJS.IL - news) expects sales of about $2 bln in North America by 2021‍​

Italian state lender CDP set to buy stake of up to 5 pct in Telecom Italia (Amsterdam: TI6.AS - news) - sources

U.S.-China trade war could hit German automakers, plus Tesla, Ford

VW bets on Brazil rebound with SUV, Honda remains cautious

Monte dei Paschi (Milan: BMPS.MI - news) 's bosses confident about turnaround plan - sources

Watchdog says big German banks should not merge - Handelsblatt

Norway's DNO (LSE: 0MHP.L - news) raises Faroe Petroleum (LSE: FPM.L - news) stake to 25.4 pct

(Helen Reid)

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MORNING CALL: RELIEF RALLY TO LIFT EUROPEAN STOCKS (0525 GMT)

Relief rippled through Wall Street and Asian stock markets overnight after a weaker start to

trading, as fears of a trade war eased. Asian shares bounced from two-month lows as investors

hoped that negotiations between the U.S. and China could help avert a fully-blown trade war.

"In isolation, trade wars don't cause a global downturn - nor a sustained sell-off in risky

assets," writes ING strategist Viraj Patel, saying broader political uncertainty or an economic

slowdown are usually the triggers for a more severe correction.

This "cold trade conflict" could become a war, he adds, if the U.S. broadens measures to

other countries and sectors (ING highlights U.S. tariffs on EU car imports as the "flagship

policy"), or reacts to any retaliatory Chinese tariffs by imposing larger and "potentially

blanket" tariffs.

For today, though, European stocks are in for a relief bounce.

Spreadbetters call the DAX 176 points higher at 12,134, the CAC 40 up 73 points at 5,215,

and the FTSE 100 98 points higher at 7,132.

(Helen Reid)

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