LIVE MARKETS-Risk is a "three-way collision"

* European stocks rise

* Ocado shares recover after H1 earnings hit by investment

* TP ICAP drops after says CEO to step down

* Wall Street futures up

LONDON, July 10 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity

markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her

on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

RISK IS A "THREE-WAY COLLISION" (1159 GMT)

Rather than one key indicator or a specific event to watch out for in the short term,

France's Carmignac believes that risk on financial markets is likely to materialise through a

cocktail of adverse factors.

"It consists in a possible three-way collision: destabilising economic policies, a cyclical

economic slowdown and central banks with little room left for intervention – all at the same

time," Carmignac managing director Didier Saint-Georges writes in his monthly investment note.

For the euro zone, with its negative interest rates and its mostly heavily indebted member

states, Carmignac believes "the real risk in the near term will come from a contractionary phase

in the business cycle given that monetary stabilisers are spent and fiscal stabilisers are

woefully inadequate due to a lack of reforms".

Given the uncertain times we're heading into, Carmignac has made some cautionary steps such

as taking short positions, notably on U.S. bank stocks, stepping up exposure to high-quality

stocks and taking some profits on highly valued tech.

Talking about risk, here's Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS-PB - news) ' volatility heat map, which clearly doesn't look

alarming.

"The result is still a healthy picture but with more indicators turning less green/more

orange," GS comments.

(Julien Ponthus)

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TAKING THE TEMPERATURE ON MANAGEMENT SENTIMENT (1142 GMT)

Here's a different way of looking at company earnings: UBS (LSE: 0QNR.L - news) ' analysts have been trying to get

a read on management sentiment by analysing the difference in positive and negative language in

company conference call transcripts, or "net sentiment", for almost 7,000 U.S. and European

companies over the past 7 years.

UBS says that while sentiment is at a post-crisis high for U.S. companies, it is also rising

for Europe. Energy, pharma and insurance are sectors where sentiment in Europe is higher than

the U.S.

Here's how UBS' findings track against European earnings - they say 2017 saw an inflection

in sentiment which coincided with a move higher in EPS.

(Kit Rees)

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MIDDAY SNAPSHOT: REBOUND GOES ON (1129 GMT)

The absence of fresh nasty announcements on the trade front and broader optimism about the

upcoming earnings season is helping put European shares on course for their sixth consecutive

day of gains, extending their rebound from the lows hit at the start of the month.

While U.S. futures are pointing to a positive open, the STOXX 600 is up 0.5 percent, while

political bickering in the UK is keeping the FTSE a tad behind, but still up nearly 0.2 percent.

Here's your mid-session snapshot:

(Danilo Masoni)

TV STOCKS 1, BOOKMAKERS 0 IN WORLD CUP LEAGUE (1045 GMT)

As we gear up for the first semi-final match this evening which sees France and Belgium lock

horns, it's worth investigating to what extent analysts' calls for winners and losers from the

tournament have played out. Thus far, TV stocks are looking strong with more eyeballs glued to

screens in Britain and France, while UK bookmakers are feeling the heat.

England's unexpected success in the World Cup is likely to help ITV (Frankfurt: A0BLQP - news) beat advertising

guidance for the first half, Liberum analysts say, as TV ads related to the World Cup will run a

lot longer than expected thanks to the team's ascension to the semi-finals.

France's strong performance meanwhile has driven media agencies to lift their advertising

forecasts for French TV station TF1 (Paris: FR0000054900 - news) , Goldman Sachs notes. Publicis Media predicts TF1

will rake in net advertising revenue of 58 million euros if France reaches the finals, compared

to 54 million euros to date.

In general, Liberum reckons "extremely high TV audiences provide further ammunition for our

view that TV is alive and kicking."

Bookmakers, however, are likely to lose out from the England team's against-the-odds

progression in the tournament.

Bet prediction site Oddschecker estimates the bookmaking industry could lose a cool 100

million pounds if England win.

But there's no need to cash out of bets on bookmakers just yet. "Short-term earnings changes

due to sporting results do not impact the fundamental value of the companies we cover," say

Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) analysts, in a note titled "What if it actually does come home?"

(Helen Reid)

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WHY THE EURO ZONE WILL OUTPERFORM WALL STREET THIS SUMMER (1007 GMT)

Which stock market is going to perform better during this second-quarter earnings season:

the euro zone or Wall Street?

To answer that, UniCredit (EUREX: DE000A163206.EX - news) strategist Christian Stocker has looked at earnings revisions for

both markets and he concludes that equities in the old continent are becoming increasingly

attractive compared to their U.S. counterparts after a poor start of the year.

"There is a good probability that, at least in the coming weeks, the European equity market

could outperform the US market," he adds, noting how a declining earnings revision ratio

normally indicates a trendless or declining market while a rising ratio is supportive.

The Euro STOXX 50 earnings revisions ratio has risen to a positive value for the first time

in 2018, hitting 0.2, while the S&P 500 has fallen to virtually zero, suggesting the U.S. tax

reform boost may be over, he says.

He sees the euro zone equity market rising around 5 percent in the next few weeks.

There is one risk though: an escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

(Danilo Masoni)

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SHOPPING FOR VALUE IN EUROPE (1000 GMT)

Global equity analysts at Credit Suisse (IOB: 0QP5.IL - news) take a look at which investment styles are working

best in a global market still calculating the impact of rising protectionism.

The team, led by Andrew Garthwaite, still believes growth is likely to outperform value

globally, as investors continue to underestimate the impact of disruptive technology. Growth on

average outperforms value for 49 months and by 46 percent, while so far it's been 26 percent

over 18 months, they point out.

However they take a more cautious view on European growth stocks which are heavy in consumer

staples and light in financials - and crucially much less weighted towards tech.

European value, on the other hand, is weighted towards those sectors that tend to do well

when bond yields rise. Where to find it in Europe? Autos, tobacco, banks and pharma, which are

now the cheapest sectors in Europe.

Credit Suisse's value picks - which have positive earnings revisions, are outperform-rated

and have underperformed Europe's MSCI Value index - include Glencore (Frankfurt: 8GC.F - news) , Volkswagen (Xetra: 766400 - news)

, BMW (EUREX: BMWE.EX - news) and ArcelorMittal (LSE: 0NSF.L - news) .

These include some of the stocks most hurt by recent trade war developments, such as German

autos. Indeed, as you can see below, the value style began to underperform growth sharply as

trade rhetoric ramped up, leaving certain value stocks attractively cheap, though not for the

faint-hearted.

On the "avoid" list for Garthwaite and team are stocks with high leverage and negative

earnings revisions, like K&S (IOB: 0Q2N.IL - news) , British Land (LSE: BLND.L - news) and Countrywide (Frankfurt: A1H56R - news) .

They also move from an overweight to underweight on Euro area small caps, citing high

valuations and poor earnings revisions.

(Helen Reid)

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OPENING SNAPSHOT: EUROPEAN SHARES STEP HIGHER (0718 GMT)

The bounce continues with European stocks opening higher, led by gains for energy stocks,

miners and tech as the focus turns from trade rhetoric to the macroeconomic backdrop and the

earnings season.

We've got two big fallers on the STOXX early on: TP ICAP and Ocado, down 25 percent and 6.3

percent respectively. Broker TP ICAP is on the back foot after saying its CEO is leaving and

that there will be a dip in 2018 operating profit, while Ocado's first-half earnings have taken

a hit from increased investment.

Here's your opening snapshot:

(Kit Rees)

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WHAT'S ON THE RADAR FOR THE OPEN (0650 GMT)

European stocks are set to extend their rebound as investors put trade war worries on the

back burner and global markets rise, fuelled by hope around corporate earnings growth.

German stocks are likely to be in the spotlight after Germany signed trade deals with China

involving Siemens (BSE: SIEMENS.BO - news) , BASF, Volkswagen (IOB: 0P6N.IL - news) among others, as the exporting giants’ leaders committed to

free trade in an increasingly protectionist world.

Investors will also be watching Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment indicators, hoping for

signs the fears around Europe’s biggest economy are overblown.

In company news, shares in interdealer broker TP ICAP are seen falling as much as

15 percent after the firm cut synergy targets, announced its CEO is departing and warned 2018

profits would be hit by costs related to Brexit and MiFID II among others.

Shares (Berlin: DI6.BE - news) in online supermarket and tech company Ocado could also fall after its first-half

earnings were dented by increased investments.

And some traders are calling a 75 to 100 percent gain for shares in small-cap biotech firm

Cassiopea (Other OTC: CPPSF - news) after positive trial results for its acne treatment cream.

With Europe’s earnings season slowly kicking into gear, M&A news is also driving moves.

Sky (Frankfurt: 893517 - news) shares are seen up 1 percent after the FT reported Fox was preparing a new

offer to outbid ComCast (Swiss: CMCSA.SW - news) , while UK specialist healthcare services firm Cambian is seen

jumping as much as 40 percent after receiving a takeover proposal from rival CareTech valuing it

at $536 million.

And German wind turbine maker Nordex (EUREX: 2083267.EX - news) is seen gaining 6 to 7 percent after winning

its biggest ever order for a Brazilian wind project.

(Helen Reid)

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FUTURES POINT TO STRONGER OPEN AS GERMANY, UK DATA AWAITED (0620 GMT)

Futures have opened higher across the European benchmarks, pointing to a further rebound for

the market.

Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news) analysts reckon Germany's ZEW sentiment indicator is set for a

"long-awaited pick-up" for June, while Britain's ONS will deliver the first ever monthly GDP

data.

"We expect it to reveal a strong bounce that would add further weight to our forecast of an

August rate hike," SocGen (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) writes.

On Germany, they say "stock markets have improved and more promising signs are emerging from

the industrial sector, suggesting that fears over the German economic momentum were premature,"

adding however that further tariffs on EU car exports could dent confidence once again.

More headlines to watch:

Nordex scores biggest ever single contract

Ocado's first-half earnings hurt by investment

UK recruiter Robert Walters (LSE: RWA.L - news) ' profit rises 16 pct on overseas growth

Activist fund Oasis nearly doubles stake in Premier

Sorrell beats WPP (Frankfurt: A1J2BZ - news) in race to win Dutch agency MediaMonks

Tesco (Frankfurt: 852647 - news) names product officer Tarry as new UK boss after Wilson (Oslo: WILS.OL - news) illness

(Helen Reid)

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EARLY MORNING HEADLINE ROUND-UP (0552 GMT)

With Europe's earnings season still not in full gear, M&A dominates the company news agenda

today while China and Germany's commercial accords may help ease investors' trade war fears. The

deals involve German industrial giants including Siemens, Volkswagen and BASF.

With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) raft of deals, China and Germany swear to keep trade free

U.S. appeals court upholds Volkswagen's $10 bln diesel settlement

Fox preparing to top Comcast offer for Sky (Amsterdam: BK8.AS - news) - FT

Siemens, Alstom (LSE: 0J2R.L - news) deal faces full-scale EU antitrust probe - sources

Activist Paulson beats drum for Premier Foods (Frankfurt: A1JWNB - news) management change

BlackRock (Sao Paolo: BLAK34.SA - news) expands in Paris with new hires ahead of Brexit, source says

EU clears Deutsche Telekom (IOB: 0MPH.IL - news) to buy Liberty Global (Frankfurt: A1W0FL - news) 's Austrian unit

(Helen Reid)

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MORNING CALL: REBOUND IN EUROPEAN SHARES TO CONTINUE (0536 GMT)

Following in the footsteps of global markets, European shares are set to extend their

rebound today as investors' attention turned to the upcoming U.S. earnings season, helping them

put trade war worries on the back burner.

Asian shares rallied for a third session as hopes for upbeat corporate earnings buoyed Wall

Street, while high-profile resignations from Britain's government kept sterling on the

defensive.

In case you missed it, here was our latest on the resignations and what they mean for

Britain's Brexit plan:

Spreadbetters at London Capital Group call the DAX 59 points higher at 12,602, the CAC 40 up

16 points at 5,419, and the FTSE 100 12 points higher at 7,700.

(Helen Reid)

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(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)