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LIVE MARKETS-Sainsbury's Asda deal: Views from the Street

* European markets edge up

* Sainsbury (Amsterdam: SJ6.AS - news) 's surges on ASDA merger

* WPP (Frankfurt: A1J2BZ - news) jumps on results

April 30 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to

you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her on Messenger to

share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

SAINSBURY'S ASDA DEAL: VIEWS FROM THE STREET (1057 GMT)

The merger between Sainsbury's and Asda is the big news investors are digesting today.

Tellingly, Walmart bought Asda for 6.7 billion pounds in 1999, and the current deal values

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it at 7.3 billion pounds.

"When you consider Walmart payed $10 billion for Asda all those years ago, it makes you

realise how bad it's been. Had it for 20 years almost and the price is the same," notes a

trader.

Several analysts also mention regulatory risks as the deal awaits approval from the

Competition and Markets Authority (CMA).

"A CMA gamble," says Bernstein's Bruno Monteyne. "Everything swings on CMA store disposals."

Exane analysts are pretty pessimistic. "The risks, not just from the competition

authorities, are immense so we'd sell into any strength in Sainsbury's," they write. "The

prospect of a counter bid might be there but Morrisons now prides itself on disciplined capital

allocation so it seems an unlikely suitor and Tesco (Frankfurt: 852647 - news) seems too big."

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS-PB - news) notes Sainsbury's is dominant in the South while Asda is more present in the

North of England. "There's a good demographic fit," says the trader. "There are suggestions that

it doesn't go through but that is harsh in my view."

And what about the impact on the rival retailers? Monteyne sees the biggest negative impact

on Morrisons if the deal is very successful, while uncertainty is likely to hurt both it and

Tesco in the shorter term.

(Helen Reid)

*****

EARNINGS OVERCONFIDENCE AND WHERE IT COULD STING MOST (1000 GMT)

We're still cruising through the Q1 earnings but so far it seems fair to say that corporate

results have broadly held to expectations and kept bulls running.

But what if 2018 is as good as it gets and earnings remain flat in the next two years?

"Given the absolute valuation as well as relative valuation of equity markets are both rich,

the ability of equity markets to absorb any reduction in earnings growth is rather limited,"

Société Générale analysts argue in a research note, in which they also acknowledge headwinds

from higher bond yields.

Using "risk premium tools", SocGen (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) looked at two different scenarios: one in which earnings

reach a peak in 2018 and remain flat for the next two years, and another in which results don't

rise between 2019 and 2020.

According to the French bank's data, the U.S. and Canadian markets are the most exposed to a

peak in earnings while India is the most vulnerable among emerging countries:

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

EUROPEAN STOCKS TO BOTTOM OUT VERSUS THE U.S. (0905 GMT)

JP Morgan is still positive on European stocks, arguing their relative underperformance

against the U.S. will reach bottom soon.

The main drivers behind the U.S. outperformance over Euro zone, namely earnings, tech and

FX, are fading, say JPM strategists. They're predicting the tech sector will stall, denting U.S.

equities' dominance, and that negative currency effects from a strong euro should fade.

"The worst of the Euro headwind happened in Q1, and in the second half positive sales

surprises should shift from the U.S. to Euro area," writes JPM's Mislav Matejka.

And with the sugar rush triggered by significant tax cuts in the U.S. largely behind us,

Europe's attractive qualities may come back to the fore.

"Euro area is earlier in the cycle than is the U.S., its shareholder yield vs bond yield is

significantly more attractive at 4.4 percent versus 1.6 percent, and valuations are cheaper," he

adds.

JPM's top pick is Italy, which is also by far the best-performing among Europe's benchmarks

this year, up 9.5 percent. "DAX is also becoming increasingly attractive if Euro turns lower,"

adds Matejka.

(Helen Reid)

*****

WHAT'S ON THE RADAR FOR THE EUROPEAN OPEN (0643 GMT)

European stocks are set to close the month of April on a high note, with futures indicating

slight gains at the open and the pan-European STOXX 600 index on track for a 3.7 percent rise on

the month – after suffering losses in February and March.

Likely to drive the day is a merger between Sainsbury's and Walmart's ASDA, a deal which

will create Britain’s biggest supermarket group by market share, surpassing current leader

Tesco. In a sector struggling globally to adapt as the Internet increases price transparency,

the deal is a defensive move to increase scale and pricing power.

The pressure of a depreciated pound and lower consumer confidence in the UK are more reasons

to merge in order to offer cheaper prices. Bernstein analysts said they expect Britain’s

Competition and Markets Authority to take one year to examine the deal and approve it, but noted

there is a “non-negligible” risk it could be met with outright rejection.

Sainsbury's shares are indicated up as much as 10 percent at the open as the

supermarket also reported first-quarter results. Rivals Tesco and Morrisons are

seen losing 2 to 4 percent as the merger ramps up competition for them.

Deal news is also likely to buoy shares in Deutsche Telekom (IOB: 0MPH.IL - news) , whose majority-owned T-Mobile

US business clinched a $26 billion deal with Sprint, merging the third and fourth largest U.S.

wireless carriers. AccorHotels added to its hotel portfolio with Movenpick Hotels for $567

million.

It's also a heavy day for first-quarter results, with the world’s biggest advertising group

WPP reporting stronger than expected first-quarter sales, while profits from Sweden’s SEB (LSE: 0MGS.L - news) bank

lagged forecasts.

(Helen Reid)

*****

EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES POINT UP (0611 GMT)

Futures have opened higher, indicating a positive start for Europe's stock markets today as

April draws to a close.

Sainsbury's has indeed announced it's agreed terms for a proposed combination with Walmart's

ASDA in what it calls a "transformational opportunity to create a new force in UK retail". The

deal values ASDA at 7.3 billion pounds, and the combined business will be chaired by Sainsbury's

chairman and led by its CEO and CFO. The supermarket also announced Q1 results.

(Helen Reid)

*****

SAINSBURY'S-ASDA MERGER TALKS AND OTHER M&A NEWS (0542 GMT)

There's lots of M&A news likely to drive the day today.

Walmart's ASDA and Sainsbury's are in talks to merge, it emerged over the weekend,

a deal worth up to 15 billion pounds which would create Britain's biggest supermarket group

surpassing Tesco. The deal would also represent an opportunity for Walmart to stem market share

losses.

Sainsbury's biggest shareholder, the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), supports the

discussed merger with ASDA.

The UK supermarket said it would make another announcement at 0600 GMT today.

In other mega-merger news, Deutsche Telekom's shares are indicated up at the open after the

German telecoms operator clinched a $26 billion deal to merge the third and fourth largest U.S.

wireless carriers T-Mobile US and Sprint.

Here's a few more headlines to keep an eye on.

Sainsbury's, Walmart's Asda to create UK supermarket powerhouse

AccorHotels agrees to buy Movenpick Hotels for $567 mln

T-Mobile, Sprint say $26 bln deal would give U.S. tech lead over China

Telecom Italia CEO says his position 'untenable' if Elliott wins board majority

SEB Q1 operating profit lags forecast

(Helen Reid)

*****

STOCKS TO RISE ON INTER-KOREA SUMMIT AND EARNINGS BOOST (0525 GMT)

European stocks are set to end April on a high, with gains from easing tensions between the

Koreas easing and a supportive earnings season in Asia likely spreading to the region this

morning.

Asian shares extended gains overnight after a historic summit between North and South Korea

at which the leaders vowed "complete denuclearisation".

Spreadbetters call the DAX 40 points higher at 12,620.9, the CAC 40 up 12 points at 5,494.7,

and the FTSE 100 17 points higher at 7,519.1.

Europe's STOXX 600 is set to end April with a strong gain (+3.7%) after two consecutive

months of losses.

Lots of corporate news, including merger talks between Walkmart's UK arm ASDA and

Sainsbury's, to keep us busy today. We'll have more on that soon.

(Helen Reid)

*****

(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)