LIVE MARKETS-Semiconductors: more pain ahead?

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters

stocks reporters and anchored today by Josephine Mason. Reach her on Messenger to share your

thoughts on market moves: josephine.mason.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

SEMICONDUCTORS: MORE PAIN AHEAD? (1138 GMT)

After the onslaught of negative news that's punished the semiconductor sector over the past

few months from Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL - news) 's shock warning earlier this month about slowing Chinese handset demand to

Nvidia (Swiss: NVDA.SW - news) 's profit warning overnight, you'd think the worst was over and all the bad news was out

in the public by now.

For sure, the sector is starting to look cheap relative to history. But Man Group believes

there's more pain to come, especially on estimate revisions.

It gives three reasons:

1. Companies have stockpiled components on fears of a prolonged trade war hitting global

supply chains as the chart below illustrates. The chip sector is the most cyclical one in the

whole of tech industry, with the least amount of forward visibility, so excessive inventory

building tends to happen towards the end of the cycle, it says.

2. The overstocking has coincided with a slowdown in demand, which it believes could take at

least a full quarter to clear.

3. The sector is just starting to see negative earnings revisions, but semiconductor shares

have shown signs of bottoming out (STMicro's surge last week even after the company gave

downbeat forward guidance is a case in point).

But as earnings come down, stocks will get more expensive on an earnings basis.

"Typically, as cyclicals, you want to buy the sector when it is expensive on earnings and

sell them when they are cheap on earnings. As such, as the earnings cuts come in, our view

becomes more bullish."

"In general, for market troughs, we prefer using less earnings-biased metrics for valuation

like EV/Sales and Price/Book," the research note says.

(Josephine Mason)

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ROTATION, ROTATION, ROTATION (1052 GMT)

Many strategists are not expecting fireworks for stocks in 2019 and in Europe, it seems, a

sideway (albeit bumpy) move could be in store over the coming months.

This means investors may well be getting ready for some heavy sector rotation to capture the

ever shifting market mood.

Today for example defensives are staging a clear comeback after being beaten by cyclicals

during the bounce we've seen over the last few weeks when markets recovered from worries over a

slowdown in global economic growth.

Deutsche Bank (IOB: 0H7D.IL - news) believes "the growth scare is now priced out" and recommends reducing the

cyclical exposure following an 8 percent outperformance vs defensives since the start of the

year.

"We reduce our overweight in European cyclicals versus defensives," DB strategists say, as

they downgrade insurance and construction materials to underweight from overweight and airlines

to benchmark from overweight, while upgrading personal & household goods to overweight from

underweight and food & beverages to benchmark from underweight.

"While our projections for a recovery in Euro area PMI momentum and rising US bond yields

over the coming months imply only slight further upside for cyclicals versus defensives (2%

until end-Q1), we prefer to maintain an overweight in cyclicals overall as a hedge against the

possibility of a boost from a US-China trade agreement by March 1," they add.

(Danilo Masoni)

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OPENING SNAPSHOT: DEFENSIVES UP, CYCLICALS DOWN (0832 GMT)

Europe is off to a rather muted start this morning as worries over slowing global growth and

trade tensions hit cyclicals and export-oriented stocks like autos, while defensives sectors

like utilities and telecoms which are less exposed to the cycle are doing well.

As a result the broader pan-European STOXX 600 is hovering just around parity, while under

the surface there are much bigger moves among the companies that reported results.

Sartorius Stedim Biotech is leading gainers on the STOXX 600, up 12 percent after

posting a solid revenue and profit forecast for 2019, while Royal Mail (LSE: RMG.L - news) has hit a fresh

record low after it failed to deliver on its full-year profit forecast.

Among top movers is also Zalando (Swiss: OXZALG.SW - news) , hit by a SocGen (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) downgrade, while a weak trading

update is hitting Hargreaves Lansdown (Frankfurt: DMB.F - news) . A well-received update is boosting UDG

Healthcare (Shanghai: 603313.SS - news) .

Here's your snapshot:

(Danilo Masoni)

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SAP (Amsterdam: AP6.AS - news) , ELECTROLUX, SWEDBANK AND UK HOUSEBUILDERS (0735 GMT)

There's a slew of earnings to digest this morning, with healthcare, software and Swedbank (LSE: 0H6T.L - news) in

the mix and an order worth about $2 billion for Airbus.

Shares (Berlin: DI6.BE - news) in SAP are down almost 2 percent in pre-market trade after Europe's most valuable

technology company missed its 2018 revenue and profit guidance and said it would book a

restructuring charge of nearly $1 billion in Q1.

In healthcare results, Dutch health technology company Koninklijke Philips (Other OTC: PHGFF - news) released some

investor-pleasing news: an increase in dividends, a $1.72 billion share buyback plan and

better-than-expected Q4 profits.

Germany's Siemens Healthineers, which makes medical imaging gear and diagnostics equipment,

will be in focus after its diagnostics division dragged on Q1 earnings.

Weaker-than-expected Q4 earnings from Sweden's Swedbank as weak equity markets hurt trading

results will likely dent confidence in Scandinavian banks, often seen as more insulated from the

troubles facing the euro-zone financial sector. Its shares are expected to fall as

much as 5 percent, one trader said.

Airbus may take off amid expectations Japanese airline ANA is set to order 18 Airbus A320neo

jets worth about $2 billion. Confirmation could be made later on Tuesday.

But Brexit woes may return for the UK housebuilders after Crest Nicholson (Frankfurt: A1KCZN - news) warned of a

"difficult" H1 and posted a 15 percent drop in full-year profit.

A profit and revenue warning from U.S. home appliances maker Whirlpool (Sao Paolo: R2:WHRL3S.SA - news) , grappling with high

costs as the U.S.-China trade dispute inflates steel and aluminum prices, is expected to hurt

Electrolux. Its shares were seen down 2-3 percent.

Alstom (LSE: 0J2R.L - news) and Siemens (BSE: SIEMENS.BO - news) remain in focus as they struggle to get clearance to create a European

rail champion.

Another blow for Bayer (IOB: 0P6S.IL - news) in court: a federal judge overseeing lawsuits alleging its

glyphosate-based Roundup weed killer causes cancer has tentatively allowed pieces of

controversial evidence that the company had hoped to exclude from upcoming trials.

Here are some of the other headlines so far this morning:

UK grocers, fast food warn of major disruption from no-deal Brexit

Volvo's self-driving car venture gets nod to test on Swedish roads

SSAB Q4 core profit narrowly lags forecast

Australia wins appeal against BHP over tax owed by marketing arm

Accor Increases Its Stake In Orbis To About 85.84 Pct

French group Faurecia (Swiss: EO.SW - news) to launch tender offer for Clarion acquisition

Grandvision Acquires Charlie Temple

Hellofresh Q4 Adj. Ebitda Loss Reduced At Minus EUR 2 Mln To Minus EUR 6 Mln

Unilever (NYSE: UL - news) buys New York based The Laundress to boost cleaning business

Allianz (Swiss: ALV-EUR.SW - news) provided some reinsurance for burst Vale (Swiss: VALE.SW - news) dam -sources

U.S. House panels to hold joint hearing on Sprint, T-Mobile merger

EUROPE EKES OUT SMALL GAINS (0716 GMT)

Rather surprisingly given the slew of bad news overnight and weak Asian equities, most

European stock futures have opened in positive territory, and are currently ekeing out small

gains. Still, Germany's DAX futures, the most sensitive to all things trade and China, are

underperforming their peers.

MIXED BAG FOR EUROPE (0612 GMT)

Frankfurt and Paris are expected to open lower this morning, after Nvidia became the latest

U.S. chip maker to warn about the damaging effects of softening demand in China, the world's No.

2 economy, and the United States announced sweeping charges against China's telecom giant Huawei

just days before the next round of trade talks.

In contrast though, London's FTSE is seen higher as hopes mount that the latest batch of

votes on Brexit in Parliament tonight will take the country closer to avoiding a no-deal Brexit.

The UK index, battered by uncertainty over its EU divorce and shunned by investors, is trading

at a discount to its U.S. and European peers.

Financial spreadbetters IG (Frankfurt: A0EARV - news) expect London's FTSE to open 13 points higher at 6,760,

Frankfurt's DAX to open 6 points lower at 11,205 and Paris' CAC to open 9 points lower at

4,880.

Just to add a bit more spice to proceedings, Apple will release its results after the

closing bell tonight.

(Josephine Mason)

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