LIVE MARKETS-As summer approaches, should investors still go away in May?
* European stocks falter as cyclicals drag
* Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank end merger talks
* Nokia drops 9.2 pct after surprise quarterly loss
* Q1 beat sends ASM International to all-time high
* Bic set for worst day in two years after sales miss
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AS SUMMER APPROACHES, SHOULD INVESTORS STILL GO AWAY IN MAY? (0930 GMT)
With the global stock market rally continuing to defy the odds, can investors risk following
the old market adage that they should 'sell in May and go away'?
"As we approach the typically soft spring-summer period for equities, the question is
whether one should use the latest rebound as an opportunity to de-risk," says Emmanuel Cau,
European equities strategist at Barclays.
It is tempting to close out given technical charts are indicating markets are overbought and
the statistical case for inflows to pick up in the months ahead does not look particularly
compelling, he adds.
The chart below shows the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the STOXX 600 and S&P 500
has hovered around the 70 threshold in recent weeks, piercing the key level earlier this week,
signalling markets are technically overbought.
At the same time, volatility is weak and strategists have warned rising bearish bets on the
U.S. volatility index are a sign of complacency among investors, leaving the market vulnerable
to another blowout if there was any surprise or shock news.
The chart below illustrates the weakening volatility index for Europe and the U.S.:
Cau says he's not brave enough to say this summer will be different, but with trading
volumes already sharply down year-to-date and equities having seen significant outflows, the
lack of flows may mitigate the effect of the typical summer slump.
In fact, investors may not even have that much to sell in the first place, says Cau. He
recommends using the lower volatility to hedge potential downside risks, rather than selling
equities outright.
He doesn't rule out a melt-up scenario, with the bears capitulating, but it will depend on
fundamental newsflow - such as earnings - turning positive and bond yields stabilising.
Still, the Q1 earnings season is off to a good start, with surprises so far to the upside even
if downward revisions are still coming in, he says.
(Josephine Mason)
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EUROPEAN STOCKS EDGE LOWER AS EARNINGS POUR IN (0730 GMT)
European stocks are under pressure in early deals, with all the major bourses in the red
after weakness in Asia and on Wall Street overnight and as investors digest a slew of poor
earnings from Nokia to Peugeot and UK housebuilder Taylor Wimpey.
Finnish telecom equipment maker Nokia is down 10 percent at 6-month lows and set for its
worst day since late 2017 after it reported a surprise Q1 loss. The news is denting shares of
rival Ericsson, which is down 1.5 percent.
Peugeot is the top loser on the Paris bourse after warning of continued sales decline in
China in its Q1 results.
Taylor Wimpey's downbeat outlook for the struggling UK housebuilders has cast a pall over
the whole sector and reinforced worries about the damage of a prolonged and chaos Brexit process
on the construction and housing industry.
Taylor Wimpey shares are down 6.6 percent, dragging Persimmon, Bellway and Barratt with it.
The European construction index is down 0.9 percent.
Among the bright spots, Wirecard, which has been hit by allegations of fraud and false
accounting, is extending yesterday's stellar gains after confirming its profit targets. Shares
are up almost 4 percent and top of the DAX 30.
Bayer shares are close behind, after reporting a Q1 beat mainly driven by its Monsanto
division.
Carrefour is rising 2.3 percent and the biggest gainer on the French blue chip index as an
improving performance in the core French market helped Europe's largest retailer beat Q1 profit
expectations.
Following Credit Suisse's stellar show yesterday, Switzerland's biggest bank UBS comfortably
beat estimates as pickup in market conditions dampened a hit to trading revenues and client
activity, sending its shares up 0.7 percent.
ASM International is up 5.5 percent after its results, which defy expectations of a slowdown
in chip demand.
Here's your early snapshot:
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
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ON OUR RADAR: BANKS, CARS, SUPERMARKETS, CHIPS EARNINGS (0634 GMT)
European stock futures indicate a slightly higher open with a mixed bag of earnings reports
from banks, autos, supermarkets and semiconductor sectors and some new developments expected on
the M&A front.
After Credit Suisse's stellar show, profits at larger rival UBS breezed past estimates as a
pickup in market conditions dampened a hit to trading revenues and client activity, while
Swedbank also reported better-than-expected Q1 profits, but admitted to past anti
money-laundering shortcomings and said it was cooperating with authorities, including those of
the United States.
Britain's Barclays posted a drop in Q1 pretax profit that was in line with analysts'
expectations.
Plenty to digest in the autos sector - Geely-owned Volvo's quarterly profit fell by a fifth
as the company blamed pricing pressure and higher tariffs arising from the trade war between
U.S. and China, while French carmaker Peugeot also warned of a continued decline in sales in
China.
Michelin reported higher Q1 sales, helped by its recent acquisitions of the Camso and Fenner
businesses, and stuck to its 2019 financial guidance, a positive sign that the tyre sector is
showing resilience to global trade tensions.
Carrefour has delivered in-line Q1 sales, rising 2.7 percent on a like-for-like basis, up
from 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, driven by robust sales in Brazil and an
improving performance in the core French market. Deutsche Bank analysts said they expect shares
in Europe's largest retailer to rise, but cautioned it's too early to call an inflexion.
In a blow to Sainsbury's ambition to overtake market leader Tesco, Britain's competition
regulator has blocked its proposed 7.3 billion pound takeover of Walmart-owned Asda and the
companies say they have agreed to terminate the transaction.
Most analysts and competition lawyers saw little chance of the deal proceeding, but a
collapse may force Sainsbury's to undergo a major shake-up that could see new chairman Martin
Scicluna part company with Chief Executive Mike Coupe, the architect of the deal and the group's
boss since 2014. Sainsbury's share price is down 19 percent over the last three months.
Appearing to defy the slowdown in smartphone demand that has hurt Texas Instruments and
other chipmakers, Dialog Semi expects higher Q1 profits and semiconductor supplier ASM
comfortably trumped Q1 revenue estimates.
But Finnish telecom network equipment maker Nokia's surprise loss is expected to push shares
down as much as 10 percent and may cast a shadow on rival Ericsson.
The deal-or-no-deal over Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank continues. The WSJ has reported that
talks between the German banking giants have hit stumbling blocks over questions ranging from a
lack of investor support to opposition from powerful labour unions.
Some headlines from overnight & this morning:
Chipmaker ASM beats first-quarter targets, sees market outperformance in 2019
Pricing pressure, tariffs dent Volvo's quarterly profit
Bayer's profit gets boost from Monsanto but legal burden mounts
Carrefour's Q1 sales growth accelerates with France, Brazil
Michelin confirms its 2019 guidance as Q1 sales rise
UK regulator blocks Sainsbury's $9.4 bln Asda takeover
Dialog Semi says it expects higher than anticipated profitability in Q1
UBS posts consensus-beating $1.14 bln Q1 net profit
Nokia reports surprise Q1 loss, sees pressure in second half
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Josephine Mason)
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EUROPEAN STOCKS SEEN EDGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER (0515 GMT)
European shares are expected to edge ever-so slightly higher, as investors brace for an
earnings-heavy day, brushing off for now weakness overnight on Wall Street and in Asia.
Financial spreadbetters IG expect London's FTSE to open 6 points higher at 7,477,
Frankfurt's DAX to open 4 points higher at 12,317 and Paris' CAC to open 1 point higher at
5,577.
Wall Street pulled back from records last evening pressured by energy stocks, although U.S.
stock futures are in green this morning as strong tech earnings post-close helps boosts investor
sentiment. Microsoft briefly topped $1 trillion in market capitalisation as cloud computing
shone, while Facebook results blew past estimates.
Still, weak macro data looms large - the deterioration in German and South Korean economic
data will remain a key area of concern and could halt German blue-chips' best run since February
2015 today.
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****
(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Josephine Mason and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)