LIVE MARKETS-This time it's different: no help from falling euro and pound

June 19 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to

you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her on Messenger to

share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT: NO HELP FROM FALLING EURO AND POUND (1033 GMT)

While European and UK stocks usually get an accounting boost when the euro or the pound fall

against the dollar, it seems this doesn't apply when fears of a full-blown trade war actually

kick in!

"It doesn't matter what accounting boost you get if you can't trade," Mike van Dulken, head

of research at Accendo Markets just told us.

"USD strength from safe-haven seeking is pushing GBP lower, however, the FTSE is failing to

benefit, the threat to international trade is clearly greater than the accounting benefit," he

explained, noting that Germany's DAX, whose constituents are typically heavy exporters, is

suffering the most in Europe.

The dollar is at its highest in a year versus a basket of major currencies, and the euro and

the pound are down about 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent respectively against the greenback.

Analysts believe a trade war could benefit the dollar because import tariffs would fuel

inflation in an already strong U.S. economy in the midst of an aggressive rate hike cycle.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

"INVESTORS LOOKING AGAIN AT UK BANKS" - DESPITE BREXIT (0956 GMT)

It hasn't been a good year for banks with political risk and delays to the expected timing

of rate hikes in the euro zone sending their index down more than 12 percent

year-to-date - the worst sectoral performer in Europe.

But the ECB rate risk looks to have refocused the attention on the UK domestic banks and UBS

analysts led by Jason Napier see opportunities there, perhaps ironically given the ongoing

Brexit negotiations.

"With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) larger parts of the European universe looking more fragile from an investment

perspective we've been fielding more calls from investors looking again at the UK domestics,"

analysts at the Swiss bank say in a note.

"Notwithstanding the risks around a disorderly Brexit and the negative reaction on rates

from the BoE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) which we think would follow, our base case remains that a lengthy

transition will occur," they also say.

The heavily discounted stock valuation and evidence that mortgage spreads are widening again

in June from May make them particularly bullish on Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) and Lloyds Banking Group

.

The FTSE 350 Bank index is down 7 percent year-to-date, easily outperforming

the double-digit slump suffered by the broader STOXX Bank index.

(Danilo Masoni)

****

OPENING SNAPSHOT: RED, A LOT OF IT (0722 GMT)

It didn't start well and it doesn't seem like it's getting any better. European stocks are

deep into the red with the STOXX now down 1.2 percent, doubling the opening 0.6 percent loss.

Beyond the trade war concerns, which are triggering what would be a third session of losses,

some disappointing news on the UK corporate front is prompting spectacular falls at Debenhams (Frankfurt: D2T.F - news) ,

down 12 percent, McCarthy & Stone (Frankfurt: MCM.F - news) sinking 18.8 percent and Ashtead down 6.6 percent.

Here's what European markets look like at 0715 GMT:

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

ON THE RADAR BEFORE THE OPEN: TRADE WARS, M&A AND UK DEBENHAMS (0646 GMT)

An escalating protectionist tit-for-tat between the U.S. and China is set to extend a

selloff in European stocks on Tuesday after Asian shares hit a four-month low overnight.

Futures for the main European benchmarks were down 1 to 1.3 percent, while Britain’s FTSE

100 futures fell 0.7 percent after Trump warned Washington would impose a 10 percent tariff on

$200 billion of Chinese goods after Beijing decided to raise tariffs on $50 billion in U.S.

goods - itself in response to Trump's announcement on Friday of $50 billion of tariffs.

Germany’s DAX, home to some of the world’s biggest carmakers which Trump has explicitly

targeted in his tariffs rhetoric, is set for the worst fall. It also includes many multinational

industrial firms such as Siemens (BSE: SIEMENS.BO - news) , which rely on unfettered access to global markets.

In general European companies are far more exposed to the global economy than U.S.

companies, making them more vulnerable to companies slapping higher tariffs on goods. Some 18

percent of European company revenue comes from North America and 9 percent from China, while 32

percent is derived from emerging markets.

U.S. companies get just 4 percent of revenues from China and 10 percent from Europe.

In M&A news, Swiss drugmaker Roche agreed to buy the rest of molecular information company

Foundation Medicine (Frankfurt: A1W5NZ - news) in a $2.4 billion deal. Sources also told Reuters private equity firm KKR

was close to signing a deal to buy Altice’s telecom towers, having trumped rival bids from

Blackstone (NYSE: BX - news) and a consortium of the infrastructure investment arms of insurers Allianz (Swiss: ALV-EUR.SW - news) and Axa (Paris: FR0000120628 - news) .

On the UK market the biggest stock to watch will be department store Debenhams, which warned

on profit again, blaming its poor trading on increased competitor discounting and weakness in

its key markets. It's likely to fall 20 to 40 percent, traders say.

A day after online grocer Ocado entered the FTSE 100, another warning from the UK high

street underlines the transformation the retail sector is undergoing, and the extra pressures UK

retailers in particular are buckling under.

Headlines to watch:

UK's Debenhams warns on profit again, blames weak market

UK's Ashtead posts 17 pct rise in FY underlying pretax profit

Ion's offer for Fidessa goes unconditional, awaits regulatory greenlight

Ferguson's profit rises 17.1 percent, fuelled by U.S. residential market

Mccarthy & Stone Sees Fy18 Operating Profit Of 65 Mln Stg To 80 Mln Stg

(Helen Reid)

*****

SELL-OFF TO CONTINUE, FUTURES INDICATE (0610 GMT)

European bourses are set to open well into the red, futures show. Euro zone trading centres

in Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid are seen retreating between 1 percent and 1.4 percent as worries

of full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China grow.

To put it in a nutshell: "as the U.S. and China head straight towards a full-on trade war

flows out of riskier assets are on the rise," writes Jasper Lawler, head of research at London

Capital Group.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

EARLY MORNING HEADLINE ROUND-UP

There's some M&A news on the slate today around Roche and Altice (Other OTC: ATSVF - news) , with investors' eyes also

on the first full day of the ECB Forum on Central Banking.

"A repeat of last year's post-Sintra euro rally is unlikely this year," say Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news)

analysts. "Market attention this week will likely be more focused on the OPEC meeting and the

escalating Sino (Dusseldorf: 1205802.DU - news) -U.S. trade dispute."

Here are some headlines to watch:

Roche to pay $2.4 bln to buy rest of Foundation Medicine

KKR close to signing deal for Altice's telecom towers - sources

Anglo American (LSE: AAL.L - news) wins permits to explore for copper in north Brazil

French property group Nexity unveils targets for financial growth

France's EDF (Paris: FR0010242511 - news) says 10-day strike from June 19 could impact power production

(Helen Reid)

*****

NO END IN SIGHT TO TRADE WAR SELLOFF AS TIT-FOR-TAT ESCALATES (0528 GMT)

European stocks are seen opening lower this morning, tracking a deepening downturn in Asian

stocks as the U.S. and China ramped up a trade dispute which has spooked investors wary of a

shift towards protectionism.

A sell-off in Chinese stocks drove Asian equities to a four-month low overnight as U.S.

President Donald Trump threatened further tariffs on Chinese goods in an escalating tit-for-tat

trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

Trump warned Washington would impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods

after Beijing decided to raise tariffs on $50 billion in U.S. goods in retaliation for U.S.

tariffs announced on Friday.

Spreadbetters call the DAX 36 points lower at 12,798, the CAC 40 down 20 points at 5,430,

and the FTSE 100 4 points lower at 7,627. The German index is usually the worst hit by trade war

fears as it's home to carmakers, which have been targeted explicitly by Trump, and industrials

stocks which are highly dependent on unfettered access to global markets.

(Helen Reid)

*****

(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)