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LIVE MARKETS-This trade war is soooo 2019

* European shares fall from July 2015 highs

* STOXX 600 down 0.6%, IBEX down 1.5% at 5-week low

* Trump dashes hopes for details about China trade deal

* Intensifying unrest in HK also weighing

* U.S. futures point to weaker Wall Street open Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Danilo Masoni. Reach him on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: danilo.masoni.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net



THIS TRADE WAR IS SOOOO 2019 (1123 GMT)

Amid trade war fatigue, European stock markets are once again driven (down about 0.6% at the moment) by Trump commenting on the negotiations with China.

There seems to be a growing sense of frustration among strategists who are required to daily comment, analyse or adjust their outlook to the latest developments in the U.S./China row, even if it turns out to be quite insignificant.

"One of our banks reckons all trade headlines should be taken with a grain of salt; I'm thinking a keg", Stephen Innes chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader wrote this morning.

Alain Bokobza, head of global asset allocation at SocGen told us during a chat on Tuesday afternoon that reading markets on the short term was more than tricky.

"Markets driven by tweets are becoming more unpredictable", he said, alluding to Trump's habit of posting regular comments on the trade war on social media.

Anyhow, the good news is that the creeping trade war fatigue could be a very 2019 theme and perhaps even go away in 2020.

Speculation goes that Trump might want to ensure success on that front during his re-election campaign.

A Reuters poll with over 180,000 respondents on Twitter shows that a clear majority of people believe the 2020 U.S. election will drive markets next year, not the trade war:

Bonus: a link to Reuters' Global Investment Outlook 2020: https://www.reuters.com/summit/Investment20

(Julien Ponthus)

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POLITICS MATTER: MADRID AT RELATIVE ALL-TIME LOW (0953 GMT)

Madrid is lagging the market as investors brace for more instability after the Socialists and the far-left Podemos party formed a government pact that still lacks majority, following an inconclusive general election - the second this year.

The IBEX is down 1.6% and the STOXX is falling 0.8% -- a gap that at a first glance isn't too scaring.

But if you chart the index relative to the STOXX, it turns out that Madrid is trading at its lowest levels on record, a pretty clear illustration of how deep its underperformance has been over the years and that after all, politics matter.

And analysts seem to a agree that as long there there's a political stalemate in Madrid, the IBEX will struggle to recover, even though the Spanish economy is in much better shape than other countries'.


Turning to the most immediate worries, Rabobank notes: "We are still a decent way away from Spain having a functioning government, which in turn means that the passing of a new Budget (for 2020) still looks very difficult".

(Danilo Masoni)

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EUROPE DROPS, MADRID LAGS, EARNINGS DRIVE BIG MOVES (0828 GMT)

Trump's speech disappointed and no surprise that Europe has started the session on the back foot with cyclical and trade sensitive plays from banks to autos feeling most of the pain.

Declines however aren't dramatic with the broader pan-European STOXX 600 benchmark index down just around 0.3% in early trading, after hitting its highest in more than four years in the previous session.

Madrid's IBEX is being left behind, down 1%, as investors braced for more political instability in the euro zone country after the Socialists and the populist Podemos party formed a government pact that sill doesn't have a majority.

Among individual stocks there some big moves.

Tullow Oil is being hit hard, down 18% to its lowest level since early January, after the oil company forecast lower free cash flow for the year due to problems at its Ghana fields.

A JPMorgan downgrade to neutral is sending shares in SES down 13.1%, while cable maker Prysmian is down 5.7% after it lowered its 2019 profit guidance.

Not all updates were disappointing: German IT-systems provider Bechtle and property group Deutsche Wohnen confirmed their guidance, pushing their shares to the top of the STOXX.

Here's your opening snapshot:

(Danilo Masoni)

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WHAT'S ON OUR RADAR AT THE OPEN (0752 GMT)

European shares are expected to fall from July 2015 highs at the open today after Trump's much-anticipated speech failed to provide details on an initial trade detail with China, while intensifying unrest in Hong Kong isn't going to help either.

Futures on main regional benchmarks are down 0.3-0.6%.

In corporate news there are a few earnings updates to digest. Italy's Enel, Europe's biggest utility by market value, raised its core earnings target for the year after nine-month operating results topped expectations, lifted by its network business in Latin America. One trader sees its shares opening up around 1%. Shares in Deutsche Wohnen are up 1.5% in early trade after the German real estate company, recently hit by plans to freeze rents in Berlin, repeated its forecast and said it would back shares for 750 million euros.

Among other stocks that are expected to rise at the open following results are Italian luxury group Ferragamo, which posted a Q3 core profit above expectations even though sales were a miss, while Germany's Bechtle and Nordex are up in early Frankfurt trade after results.

Dutch bank ABN Amro reported a higher-than-expected 24% drop in third-quarter net profit as costs of client oversight rose amid an investigation into the lender's alleged incapability to spot money laundering. Its shares are seen falling 1-2% at the open. In the same sector, HSBC and Standard Chartered could fall amid the unrest in Hong Kong, where bank branches were closed.

Also seen falling after results are shares in cable maker Prysmian, while Tullow Oil could take a big hit after it cut its 2019 oil production outlook and forecast lower free cash flow for the year due to problems at its Ghana fields.

In trade-sensitive autos sector lack of details on possible tariffs may weigh. Sector officials however told Reuters they still expect Trump will again this week push back a self-imposed deadline on whether to put up to 25% tariffs on auto imports from the EU. German carmakers could also come under pressure after Tesla said it would build its planned European plant in Germany.

(Danilo Masoni)

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MORNING CALL: DOWN FROM HIGHS AS TRUMP SPEECH FALLS SHORT (0626 GMT)

European shares are expected to open lower after climbing yesterday to July 2015 highs as U.S. President Donald Trump's highly anticipated speech failed to deliver those details about an initial trade deal with China that markets were hoping for.

Spreadbetters at IG expect London's FTSE to open 26 points lower at 7,340, Frankfurt's DAX to open 58 points lower at 13,225 and Paris' CAC to open 19 points lower at 5,901.

"What was missing (in Trump's speech) were details about progress on phase one of the trade deal with China or the status of auto tariffs which may be placed on imports from the European Union," said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.

"He mentioned that the 'China deal could happen soon,' but he's said exactly the same thing in the past, so that wasn't anything new," he added.

Intensifying unrest in Hong Kong isn't going to help either.

(Danilo Masoni)

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(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)