LIVE MARKETS-Trade war? What trade war?
* STOXX rises 0.2 pct as investors focus on U.S.-China trade talks
* Markets take threat of U.S. tariffs on EU goods in their stride
* European blue chips hit more than one-year high
* Airbus, Leonardo and MTU Aero fall 1-2 percent on tariff proposal
* List includes handbags, ski suits, cheese, spirits
* FTSE up 0.2 pct on Brexit developments
April 9 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to
you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her on Messenger to
share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
TRADE WAR? WHAT TRADE WAR? (1056 GMT)
Aside from some individual stock moves (Airbus and aerospace suppliers), European markets
are showing remarkable resilience to Washington's threat to slap import duties on EU goods worth
$11 billion, its latest salvo in a simmering trade dispute with one of its top trading partners.
The duties would target hundreds of goods from large commercial aircraft and parts to dairy
products and wine, and are aimed as retaliation for subsidies given to Airbus, centred on a row
dating back 15 years.
The move comes just as U.S. relations with China appear to be improving and suggests that
global trade tensions that have rattled markets are unlikely to disappear any time soon.
And yet, the blue-chip STOXX50 hit its highest in more than a year this morning,
and the pan-European STOXX 600 is up 0.3 percent, erasing its earlier losses.
Sure, the $11 billion figure involved is tiny compared with the $250 billion sums involved
in the protracted spat with China.
But why the apparent calm?
Put simply, investors have got used to trade disputes and aren't concerned about a prolonged
tit-for-tat until concrete action from either side.
"The publishing of the list and saying no Stilton, no Roquefort, is putting a gun to the
head of European elites isn't it. But it's still subject to all sorts of things," says Eric
Moore, income fund manager at Miton in London.
The backlash has already started though - the European Union is readying preparations to
retaliate over Boeing subsidies.
Investors are instead drawing comfort from the potential truce in the damaging U.S.-China
dispute and positive earnings from several Taiwanese chipmakers overnight. Some also say Trump
may only be using the threat to draw the EU into negotiations.
"For now, the market is being supported by hopes of a resolution of the China-U.S. trade
issue even if it leads to another source of stress," says Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity
strategy at Barclays.
Whichever way you look at it, it's potentially a major issue. If anything's been learned
from the past 18 months of the Washington-Beijing trade spat, don't underestimate the damage
inflicted on all sides and beyond.
Graham Bishop, investment director at Heartwood Investment Management, says he's worried.
"For a lot of people, one of the errors made (last year), certainly at the beginning was
underestimating the degree to which the China-U.S. trade war would escalate," he says.
"If we're learning from that experience in isolation, we can't dismiss these tariff threats
by the White House to start targeting Europe."
For another measure of the laissez-faire response to the news, it's not generating much chat
in the Twittersphere. That's in stark contrast to National Unicorn Day, which is dedicated to
the popular mythical creature and based on a quick glance on social media, people appear to be
celebrating by dressing cats up in glitter and rainbows.
(Josephine Mason and Helen Reid)
BANK EARNINGS: EQUITIES ANOTHER SOURCE OF PAIN IN Q1 (0939 GMT)
With U.S. bank earnings around the corner, analysts reckon investment banking is going to be
another source of pain in the first quarter and UBS and JP Morgan analysts expect European IBs
to underperform their U.S. peers, yet again.
A part of the weakness in IB is also the tough year-over-year comparison, analysts at the
banks say.
But aside from that, JPM points to particularly weak equities cash transaction volumes in
Asia with Hong Kong down 35 percent. Transaction volumes in Europe aren't much better, down 20
percent, while U.S. held up a bit better with a drop of 2 percent.
Another blow to equities business has been subdued volatility, with the VIX down 5 percent
year on year (and there was a spike in volatility in February last year which also makes
comparisons tough).
Analysts have also cautioned that turnover across global equities markets has been
particularly poor even as stocks have staged their meteoric rebound from the torrid Q4.
The UBS chart below illustrates the pain with global indicative equity volume down 6 percent
quarter-on-quarter and down 10 percent year-on-year.
UBS: "Credit appears to be the only bright spot."
The IB weakness is evident with SocGen announcing cost cut measures, axing 1,600 jobs,
mainly at its corporate and investment banking arm.
JPM's top picks in global IB, in that order: Goldman Sachs, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Barclays,
Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, SocGen and Deutsche Bank.
Bank stocks are steadily rising this morning with European markets turning green after a
weak open. Markets are shrugging off the U.S. tariff threat and focusing on the tech sector
which is being driven by hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal with chips outperforming the broader
indices.
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****
OPENING SNAPSHOT: TRADE WAR REARS ITS HEAD AGAIN (0751 GMT)
European stocks are just holding above water this morning while the DAX is down 0.2 percent
as the U.S. reignites trade worries with its list of proposed goods it plans to slap tariffs on
in retaliation to the EU's Airbus subsidies.
And it's not only Airbus that's being hit (down 1.9 percent) by the U.S. proposal - engine
and aircraft makers Leonardo, MTU Aero Engines, and Safran are being dragged down too.
And Pernod Ricard, Campari, Richemont, Kering, Boss, and Moncler are also among those hit by
the wide-ranging list which includes ski suits, handbags, binoculars, watch parts, spirits,
cheese, and wine.
Unicredit economists say this list is still preliminary but is expected to be finalised in
the coming months after a period of public comment and a report from the WTO.
It's the scenario many in the market were fearing: as the China-U.S. talks progress towards
resolution, the U.S. could target Europe next.
"It looks like Trump has shifted focus back to the EU regarding tariffs. This is pressure
the EU do not need and if Trump decides to escalate (it) further could impact heavily on the EU
economies," says John Woolfitt at broker Atlantic Markets.
"It is certainly an inflammatory manoeuvre to say the least and directly in retaliation
towards the EU subsidies put on Airbus. Get ready for more tit-for-tat tariff scrapping to
follow."
Here's your snapshot of top movers:
(Helen Reid and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****
WHAT'S ON THE RADAR: U.S. TARIFF RETALIATION TO HIT PLANEMAKERS (0647 GMT)
European shares are set to continue their slide on Tuesday as a looming Brexit summit and
ECB meeting sap risk appetite and investors cash in their gains with the STOXX fresh from a
six-month high. Futures are down 0.1 to 0.3 percent.
Airbus shares are seen falling 1-2 percent after the U.S. Trade Representative listed
European goods to hit with tariffs as retaliation against Airbus subsidies. Defence firms Safran
and Leonardo were also expected to take a hit to the tune of 1-2 percent after the list included
helicopters and aircraft, while dairy producers could also be hit.
The move will stir concerns that U.S. President Trump will turn his attention to Europe as
tensions with China ease. He has threatened to increase import tariffs on European cars and is
due to make a ruling in May.
Results and dealmaking are set to drive the day.
Novartis shares are down 9 percent in pre-market trading as the pharma company was set to
open its first day of trading without eye-care business Alcon. The spin-off, listing on
Switzerland’s SMI index, was indicated to start trading at 46.45 francs.
Swiss construction chemicals firm Sika and flavouring ingredient maker Givaudan are both
likely to rise 1 to 3 percent after results met the market’s expectations.
Some traders say better Q1 earnings and sales from Taiwan's GlobalWafers may boost
Siltronic.
Norway’s Telenor is expected to fall 1-2 percent after agreeing a $1.7 billion deal for a
majority stake in Finnish telecom operator DNA. Shares in the Finnish company are seen rising 4
percent.
Merck won a takeover battle, winning support from Versum Materials for a $6.4 billion
takeover of the group after a six-week hostile campaign to sink the deal agreed between Versum
and Entegris.
British American Tobacco shares are seen unchanged after Sky reported chairman Richard
Burrows would step down.
(Helen Reid)
*****
HEADLINES TO WATCH: STANCHART, MERCK, NOVARTIS (0611 GMT)
European futures are down 0.1 to 0.3 percent as investors look ahead to a minefield of risks
and continue to take profits after stocks hit six-month highs.
In company news, Standard Chartered shares could be hurt by a Reuters exclusive reporting
the bank could pay just over $1 billion to resolve a probe into potential U.S. sanctions
violations.
Merck won a takeover battle, winning support from Versum Materials for a $6.4 billion
takeover of the group after a six-week hostile campaign to sink the deal agreed between Versum
and Entegris.
Novartis shares are seen falling 9 percent after the pharma company spun off eye-care
business Alcon.
The U.S. Trade Representative proposed a list of EU products from large commercial aircraft
to dairy products and wine on which to slap tariffs as retaliation for European aircraft
subsidies. Traders are pointing to this news but not seeing any broad impact on the market,
saying it's difficult to quantify at this point.
Results from Sika and Givaudan will likely boost the shares.
Standard Chartered expected to pay just over $1 bln to resolve U.S., U.K. probes
Novartis Aims For Strong Dividend, No Adjustment For Alcon Spin-Off
Total, partners sign long-awaited gas deal with Papua New Guinea
Sika quarterly sales beat estimates, to open more plants this year
Givaudan aims to outpace market after beating poll in Q1
Merck KGaA wins Versum's support for sweetened $6.5 bln offer
U.S. proposes list of EU goods for tariff retaliation against Airbus subsidies
(Helen Reid)
*****
JITTERS KEEP STOCKS ON DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY (0536 GMT)
European stocks are set to slide again as caution sets in ahead of tomorrow's Brexit summit
and ECB meeting.
Asian shares struggled to make gains overnight as investors braced for key events later in
the week, including the start of the U.S. earnings season and a crucial Brexit summit, while
broader concerns about slowing global growth checked sentiment.
Financial spreadbetters at IG expect London's FTSE to open 5 points lower at 7,446,
Frankfurt's DAX to open 37 points lower at 11,926 and Paris' CAC to open 8 points lower at
5,464.
(Helen Reid)
*****
(Reporting by Helen Reid, Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Josephine Mason)