Advertisement
UK markets closed
  • FTSE 100

    7,895.85
    +18.80 (+0.24%)
     
  • FTSE 250

    19,391.30
    -59.37 (-0.31%)
     
  • AIM

    745.67
    +0.38 (+0.05%)
     
  • GBP/EUR

    1.1607
    -0.0076 (-0.65%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.2370
    -0.0068 (-0.55%)
     
  • Bitcoin GBP

    51,965.50
    +614.95 (+1.20%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,384.35
    +71.73 (+5.46%)
     
  • S&P 500

    4,967.23
    -43.89 (-0.88%)
     
  • DOW

    37,986.40
    +211.02 (+0.56%)
     
  • CRUDE OIL

    83.24
    +0.51 (+0.62%)
     
  • GOLD FUTURES

    2,406.70
    +8.70 (+0.36%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    37,068.35
    -1,011.35 (-2.66%)
     
  • HANG SENG

    16,224.14
    -161.73 (-0.99%)
     
  • DAX

    17,737.36
    -100.04 (-0.56%)
     
  • CAC 40

    8,022.41
    -0.85 (-0.01%)
     

LIVE MARKETS-Trade wars: The Fed's 36 shades of 'beige' anxiety

* European stocks broadly steady

* Publicis (Paris: FR0000130577 - news) , ABB (LSE: 0NX2.L - news) jump after results

* U.S. stocks futures retreat

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity

markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her

on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

TRADE WARS: THE FED'S 36 SHADES OF BEIGE ANXIETY (1002 GMT)

There's quite a lot of skepticism out there on whether the Trump administration is actually

willing to get into a full-blown trade war with China, given corporate America's pro-free trade

ADVERTISEMENT

agenda.

One way to assess the nervousness and the resistance of the business establishment to a

trade war can be found in the "Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal

Reserve District", otherwise known as the "Beige Book".

Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, spotted that the publication

--"an economist's "Hello" magazine of anecdote and gossip"-- mentioned "tariff" 36 times, and

"not in a good way".

He adds: "This is not surprising. The economic cost of trade taxes was always likely to

exceed any benefit from US President Trump's tariff signing Twitter (Frankfurt: A1W6XZ - news) moment."

Here's a link to the publication: https://bit.ly/2Hatslr

During a presentation on Tuesday, Mike Bell, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset

Management, summed up in an eloquent way how skeptically some analysts view Trump's trade war

rhetoric:

"Like a WWE wrestling match there’s an awful lot of talk but very little damage done", Bell

said, adding that "we see this as more of skirmish than a war and expect China to do more of

what the U.S. wants and avoid an escalation".

Here's a screenshot where you can see that a search for "tariff" on the beige book gives you

36 hits, and usually the words "concern" or "risk" are not far away.

(Julien Ponthus and Tom Finn)

*****

M&A IN U.S. TECH RUNNING AT FULL DOT-COM BUBBLE SPEED (0915 GMT)

With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) so many strategists calling for caution on the U.S. tech sector, it's hard to tell

whether M&A running at full pre dot-com bubble speed is a sign of good health or a rather

sinister omen.

Anyhow, Thomson Reuters (Dusseldorf: TOC.DU - news) research shows that M&A activity in the U.S. is at its highest level

since the 2001 tech bubble burst. Have a look:

Following the Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB - news) /Cambridge Analytica scandal, a growing number of analysts have warned

investors that the sector could face a wave of regulation similar in scale to the post-financial

crisis banking regulations and even perhaps in the magnitude of the anti-monopoly drive which

restructured the U.S. economy at the beginning of the 20th century.

Here's what Saxo Bank told its clients in its outlook for Q2:

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

OPENING SNAPSHOT: EUROPE MIXED AS EARNINGS DOMINATE, MINERS RISE (0710)

Main European stock indexes are off to a mixed start, although moves are small in both

direction, as investors go through a jungle of earnings updates.

Further gains in mining stocks, as metal and oil prices hit new peaks, however is providing

support.

Here's your opening snapshot:

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

WHAT'S ON THE RADAR FOR EUROPEAN STOCKS (0649 GMT)

Earnings take centre stage today as futures point to a positive open, with stellar gains in

commodities stocks likely to keep driving the market up after crude prices hit new late-2014

highs overnight and aluminium and nickel prices continued to surge.

The earnings season is gathering pace with consumer giants Nestle (Swiss: NESN.VX - news) and Unilever (NYSE: UL - news) reporting,

both confirming their 2018 outlook and indicated up 1 percent in pre-markets.

Investors are particularly watching currency movements this season, and some companies will

have been under strain due to the strong euro.

M&A news will also move stocks: Merck KGaA (LSE: 0O14.L - news) ’s shares are seen gaining 2 to 3 percent after

Procter & Gamble (Swiss: PG-USD.SW - news) agreed to acquire its consumer health business for around 3.4 billion euros.

Weir Group (Other OTC: WEIGY - news) is indicated down 3 to 4 percent, however, after announcing a $1.28 billion deal to

acquire Esco Corporation.

A difficult season for UK retail continues with Debenhams (Frankfurt: D2T.F - news) indicated down 10 percent after

warning on its outlook and cutting its dividend. Ultra Electronics (Frankfurt: 909716 - news) was also seen falling 10

percent by some traders after saying it was being investigated by the SFO for suspected

corruption in Algeria.

Some extra headlines to watch:

Unilever stands by outlook after Q1 meets expectations

Ultra Electronics investigated by UK's SFO for "suspected corruption" in Algeria

Hedge fund Elliott issues new attack on Vivendi (LSE: 0IIF.L - news) over Telecom Italia (Amsterdam: TI6.AS - news)

Debenhams cuts dividend as first-half profit slumps

Southwest challenged engine maker CFM over proposed FAA inspections

Acacia Mining (Frankfurt: 33A.F - news) posts lower Q1 earnings, maintains FY targets

(Helen Reid and Danilo Masoni)

*****

EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES RISE AS EARNINGS DOMINATE (0612 GMT)

Futures across the major benchmarks are up 0.1 to 0.2 percent, indicating an upbeat open

after a strong trading day yesterday - particularly for commodities stocks.

ABB shares are indicated up 1.6 percent higher after its profit beat, while Nestle is seen

gaining 1 percent after it reported growing volumes.

Today is going to be dominated by earnings, with some M&A news sprinkled in as well - here

are a few extra headlines to watch:

Publicis beats Q1 growth expectations on North American rebound

Schneider Electric (EUREX: SND1.EX - news) beats Q1 revenue forecast on upbeat China demand

Pernod Ricard (TLO: RI-U.TI - news) gives more upbeat outlook after strong Q3

Aéroports De Paris Acquires Exclusive Control Of Airport International Group

Weir Group to buy Esco Corporation in $1.28 billion deal

(Helen Reid)

*****

EARNINGS, M&A: CORPORATE NEWS ROUND-UP (0532 GMT)

The earnings season is gathering pace and today we've got ABB reporting its best

start to the year since 2015, and a huge M&A move with Procter & Gamble agreeing to acquire the

consumer health business of Merck KGaA for around 3.4 billion euros.

It's a big day for consumer staples with Nestle also reporting increased volume

growth and confirming full-year guidance.

In other interesting results, Swiss pumpmaker Sulzer (IOB: 0QQ9.IL - news) , whose shares were dented by

sanctions on its main Russian shareholder, confirmed its 2018 outlook - saying it saw a one-off

hit of 10 million Swiss francs from business disruption due to the sanctions.

Currency movements are going to be particularly important this results season, and while

some companies will have been under strain due to the strong euro, others could benefit.

Novartis (IOB: 0QLR.IL - news) said it got a boost from a weaker dollar helping its first-quarter sales rise

10 percent.

Here are some of the headlines that have caught our eyes:

ABB's first quarter profit beats forecasts

P&G to buy German Merck's consumer health business for about $4.21 bln

Sulzer confirms 2018 outlook, sees small hit from sanctions impact

Nestle confirms outlook as volume growth picks up

Novartis Q1 sales beat gets help from weak dollar

France's AccorHotels upbeat about 2018 after strong Q1 sales

Total (LSE: 524773.L - news) buys stake in U.S. battery developer Ionic Materials

Deutsche Bank COO to leave amid continuing management reshuffle

(Helen Reid)

*****

EUROPE SEEN OPENING HIGHER AS RESOURCE STOCKS SHINE (0515 GMT)

Yesterday's resource stocks strength has spread into Asian trading overnight as oil prices

hit new highs not seen since late 2014.

Brent crude climbed to $73.77 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose to $68.73 after a Reuters

report that Saudi Arabia would be happy for crude to rise to $80 or even $100.

European stocks are likely to maintain Asia's trend higher, with spreadbetters calling the

DAX 18 points higher at 12,609, the CAC 40 up 14 points at 5,394, and the FTSE 100 6 points

higher at 7,323.

(Helen Reid)

*****

(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)