LIVE MARKETS-U.S. stock futures point to lower open
* European stocks fall as trade worries weigh
* Siemens (BSE: SIEMENS.BO - news) , BMW (EUREX: BMWE.EX - news) results disappoint
* BOE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) lifts rates, signals no rush for next hike
* Wall Street set to open lower
LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity
markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her
on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
STOCKS FUTURES POINT TO LOWER U.S. OPEN (1242 GMT)
Weaker tech and industrial shares weighed on futures overnight. S&P 500 e-mini are down half
a percent. The White House as upped the ante on trade with China, proposing 25 percent tariffs
on $200 billion of Chinese imports.
Shares (Berlin: DI6.BE - news) of trade-sensitive companies were the first to be hit. All 25 of the 30 companies on
the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average that were trading premarket were lower.
Caterpillar (LSE: 0Q18.L - news) and Boeing (NYSE: BA - news) both dropped more than 1 percent premarket.
Chipmakers, whose major clients include Chinese companies, also declined, with Micron,
Nvidia (Swiss: NVDA.SW - news) , AMD (Shenzhen: 002623.SZ - news) and Intel (Euronext: INCO.NX - news) down between 0.9 percent and 1.8 percent.
The so-called FAANG group of stocks — Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB - news) , Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL - news) , Amazon.com (NasdaqGS: AMZN - news) ,
Netflix (Xetra: 552484 - news) and Google-parent Alphabet (Swiss: GOOGL-USD.SW - news) — were off between 0.4 percent and 0.75
percent.
One bright spot: electric car maker Tesla, which jumped more than 10 percent after
the company buoyed hopes it will stanch its financial losses with a quarterly earnings report
showing it would produce new Model 3 sedans at a profit.
There was little reaction to weekly jobless claims, which came in a smidge less than
expected at 218,000. On tap at 10:00 a.m. EDT, Commerce Department data on June factory orders
expected to show a 0.7 percent rise, versus up 0.4 percent the previous month.
(Alden Bentley)
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MIDDAY SNAPSHOT: FTSE BRIEFLY HITS LOW AFTER BOE HIKE (1133 GMT)
As widely expected the Bank of England has raised rates above their financial crisis lows.
The decision however was surprisingly unanimous, although the central bank signalled it was
in no hurry to raise them further with an uncertain Brexit on the horizon.
As a result, sterling cut losses and that weighed on the internationally exposed FTSE 100
index, which briefly hit a fresh day low. But the move was short-lived.
The FTSE recovered a bit and was last down 1.2 percent, as the pound fell back. It looks
like investors' focus has quickly shifted to the prospect that any further hike will take some
time.
(Danilo Masoni)
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"BUILDING A CLEAR NARRATIVE IS FAR FROM SIMPLE" (1113 GMT)
So, are we on the brink of a trade war that will send stock markets crashing and the global
economy into recession or is this just scaremongering and the bull market will happily carry on
for a couple of years?
Hard to tell obviously (see post below) but one notable feature of the market environment is
the absence of a narrative describing where we are at.
While 2017 gave us "Goldilocks", the "Euroboom", the "Trump trade" and "Global synchronised
growth", it's now quite hard finding an appropriate buzz word.
"With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) so many influencing factors, building a clear narrative is far from simple," wrote
LCG's Jasper Lawler this morning.
"Storytelling isn't easy," Herve Goulletquer, deputy head of research at La Banque Postale
Asset Management in Paris also told us this morning.
Investors badly need a "framework of interpretation" to read through the trade statements of
the Trump administration and given the lack of such a tool, are cautiously on the defensive.
Of course there are some uncertainties on fundamentals and particularly on what the U.S.
yield curve is telling us but there's still a palpable consensus that without the trade war
saga, the global economy and world markets would be doing roughly ok at the moment.
"If it had not been for the sideswipe on trade, markets would have been in much better shape
this week. Apple's earnings were super, helping to quell concerns about high-tech companies,"
said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities (Frankfurt: 857092 - news) .
(Julien Ponthus)
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TRADE WAR? "A FURTHER ESCALATION IS POSSIBLE" (0959 GMT)
Trade jitters are back and that's causing a broad risk-off move across markets with most
sectors on the STOXX 600 regional benchmark trading in the red and the exporter-heavy
DAX set for its biggest one-day drop in more than one month, down 1.8 percent.
Nothing new has really emerged from Washington as decision time is still a few weeks away
but after the European close yesterday the U.S. administration confirmed it planned a higher 25
percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.
"This information reinforces our view that the White House will follow through on the
imposition of tariffs and raises the risk of escalation beyond our baseline," say UBS
economists, summing up nicely concerns things could get worse.
Their baseline has the U.S. government imposing 10 percent tariffs.
"The very real possibility of even higher tariff rates serves both to push for a resolution
but also to exacerbate the strains. We are sceptical that a fully satisfactory negotiation can
be completed before tariffs are imposed," they add.
(Danilo Masoni)
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AGONY AUNT: WHAT TO EXPECT FROM AN "UNRELIABLE BOYFRIEND"? (0745 GMT)
Mark Carney's nickname sure seems deserved this morning with so many analysts writing
agony-aunt-like columns for confused clients.
As noted by our EMEA markets editor Mike Dolan, after a number of false signals on lifting
interest rates over the past year or more, the Bank is seen following through on its guidance
this time around, to bolster its credibility if nothing else.
But while a rate hike is widely expected this morning, and mostly priced in, sell-side
research notes warn clients not to be complacent as the market reaction will probably be tough
to read.
"While a failure to act would in all likelihood trigger a sharp selloff in the pound, given
the rate rise is already priced in," says Michael Hewson of CMC Markets (LSE: CMCX.L - news) , "we could well see some
sterling weakness in any case if the bank is overly dovish in its guidance".
The problem is that the central bank may give the impression it's not entirely convinced
raising rates is the right thing to do ahead of a potentially disastrous Brexit "no-deal"
scenario.
"A rate hike that is accompanied by dovish language and cautious approach on the economy, or
even wait and see approach to Brexit negotiations, could quickly trigger some profit taking,"
says Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.
"Whichever way the central bank goes – and just to be clear, I think they will raise rates –
there could be a very interesting response in the markets," writes Erlam.
Here's the ING BoE 'cheat sheet' for today:
(Julien Ponthus)
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WHAT'S ON THE RADAR FOR THE EUROPEAN OPEN (0643 GMT)
Futures across European benchmarks are down 0.2 to 0.6 percent, with the biggest fall likely
for Germany’s DAX, the most sensitive to trade risks with its big industrials companies.
Europe will likely extend Wednesday’s losses after Asian stocks fell on U.S. President
Trump’s threat of higher tariffs on Chinese imports.
Distracting European investors from the trade saga are earnings continuing to stream in, and
a rate decision and press conference from the Bank of England.
Banks Societe Generale, Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) and ING, Europe’s biggest asset manager Amundi (Berlin: 350155.BE - news) , and German
industrial conglomerate Siemens are in the spotlight after results.
The Netherlands’ ING continued in the vein of strong European bank results thus far, beating
profit estimates thanks to a growing customer base. Barclays shares are seen up 2 to 3 percent
after its revenue beat.
Siemens (Berlin: 29783751.BE - news) – seen as potentially vulnerable to rising trade barriers - also delivered a modest
beat to expectations, with investors likely to comb through the conference call for any mention
of tariff threat. Carmaker BMW, another company threatened by tariffs, also reported results and
any comments on trade could move the stock.
Engine maker Rolls Royce (LSE: RR.L - news) was seen rising 2 to 5 percent after strong guidance for 2018, with
traders pointing to better than expected cash flow.
With the Fed meeting seen as a “non-event”, investors’ focus shifted to the BoE meeting at
which a rate rise is highly likely (decision at 1100 GMT), though not uncontroversial. UBS
strategists say they see even tentative tightening as an “unnecessary risk”. A surprise decision
to hold rates would send sterling down, in turn likely boosting the FTSE 100.
The latest batch of earnings headlines from the UK:
Barclays second quarter profits soar, boosts dividend
Aviva H1 operating profit dip on disposals, Canada, weather
Rolls-Royce sees 2018 results at upper end of guidance
Pub operator Mitchells & Butlers (LSE: MAB.L - news) quarterly sales hurt by food business
Bad weather hits insurer RSA H1 operating profit
Madame Tussauds-owner Merlin says too early to tell if London market recovering
Inmarsat Q2 revenue rises 5 pct, earnings edge higher
Serco meets H1 profit expectations, keeps guidance flags UK 'hiatus'
EARLY MORNING EARNINGS ROUND-UP: SOCGEN (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) , ING, SIEMENS, AMUNDI (0549 GMT)
It's a packed day especially for bank earnings, and with banks already thus far reporting
pretty convincing results the stakes are high for Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news) and ING to impress. ING beat
estimates with a 1.5 percent rise in Q2 profit, while SocGen managed an in-line result.
Europe's biggest asset manager, Amundi, said new client money boosted second-quarter
profits.
Industrial giant Siemens is also an interesting one to watch in the context of trade fears
weighing on industrial stocks. Siemens' slight profit beat may help the shares back to their
January highs.
Bad news for German retailer Metro (Dusseldorf: 62M.DU - news) , however, whose profit was sunk by weakness at its
Russian business and Real hypermarkets in Germany.
French bank SocGen's Q2 net profits rise in line with forecasts
ING Q2 profit rises 1.5 pct, beating estimates
Asset manager Amundi posts higher Q2 profits
Siemens Q3 industrial profit slightly beats expectations
French insurer AXA (Paris: FR0000120628 - news) reports H1 profit in line with forecast
Altice Europe relinquishes margin in Q2 to chase market share in France
Lanxess (IOB: 0H7I.IL - news) lifts FY profit forecast on Chemtura (Euronext: CHMT.NX - news) synergies, prices
Metro Q3 EBIT falls 38 pct amid Russia, Real market woes
OMV (IOB: 0MKH.IL - news) 's adjusted operating profit rises 10 percent in Q2
Delivery Hero Raises 2018 Revenue Guidance
(Helen Reid)
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EUROPEAN SHARES TO FALL FURTHER AS INVESTORS EYE EARNINGS, BOE (0525 GMT)
European stocks are expected to extend yesterday's falls today, tracking losses in Asia
overnight as trade anxiety grips the market once again.
Investors have a lot to digest today with a big batch of earnings and an interest rate
decision from the Bank of England. Siemens, ING, SocGen, and Amundi are among those reporting
results.
Spreadbetters expect London's FTSE to open 26 points lower at 7,627, Frankfurt's DAX to open
38 points lower at 12,699 and Paris' CAC to open 19 points lower at 5,480.
Asian stocks dropped overnight as Trump's threat of a higher tariff on $200 billion worth of
Chinese imports hit Shanghai shares, while global bond markets were rattled by increased
borrowing by Washington and Japan's new tolerance for higher yields.
(Helen Reid)
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(Reporting by Helen Reid, Danilo Masoni, Julien Ponthus and Kit Rees)