LIVE MARKETS-UK domestics: is the only way up?
* European stocks broadly edge down
* Italian president invites political novice Conte to be prime minister
* Deutsche Bank (IOB: 0H7D.IL - news) cuts 7.000 jobs
LONDON, May 24 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity
markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Kit Rees. Reach her on
Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: kit.rees.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
UK DOMESTICS: IS THE ONLY WAY UP? (1307 GMT)
After nearly two years of underperformance, analysts and investors are warming once again to
the UK market, and UBS (LSE: 0QNR.L - news) in particular argues a recovery could be in store for widely-shunned
domestic stocks.
Their P/E valuation relative to international stocks is at 0.85x - a decade low, analysts at
the Swiss bank find, and historically domestic stocks have risen an average of 14 percent in the
12 months following their hitting such a level.
Among domestically-focused, buy-rated stocks they say investors should hone in on Travis
Perkins, Derwent, Barratt, Capital & Counties and Lloyds (it's interesting how dominant
housebuilders/real estate stocks are in these picks).
Among international stocks, UBS analysts are continuing to look for a Brexit discount and
those that have been undeservedly hit by negative sentiment despite being robust businesses. In
this vein they pick Smith & Nephew (Frankfurt: 502816 - news) , Rolls Royce (LSE: RR.L - news) and WPP (Frankfurt: A1J2BZ - news) .
Overall UK stocks have underperformed Europe and the U.S. by 7 percent and 17 percent
respectively, in dollar terms, since the Brexit referendum - one of the worst performing global
markets. If UBS and a slew of other banks are correct, we could be nearing the end of this lag,
though.
Below you can see the UK's performance relative to Europe in local currency and euro terms
since the referendum - note the slight uptick in the past couple months.
(Helen Reid)
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"EVERY FED TIGHTENING CYCLE CREATES A MEANINGFUL CRISIS SOMEWHERE"(1222 GMT)
There was a clear sense of relief yesterday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest
meeting suggested higher inflation may not result in faster interest rate hikes.
Looking at the bigger picture however, even if its pace is still unknown, the U.S. interest
rate tightening cycle is on-going, and it usually does not end well, at least not for all.
"A starting point should be that every Fed tightening cycle creates a meaningful crisis
somewhere, often external but usually with some domestic (US) fall out," writes Alan Ruskin, a
macro strategist at Deutsche Bank.
Ruskin compares tightening cycles to the Fed shaking a tree: an "overripe fruit" is likely
to fall, he writes, even if one doesn't know yet what kind of fruit will crash down to the
ground.
"Going back in history, the 2004-6 Fed tightening looked benign but the U.S. housing
collapse set off contagion and a near collapse of the global financial system dwarfing all
post-war crises," he writes.
Ruskin says the late 1990s tightening can be associated with "the Asia crisis, LTCM and
Russia collapse, and when tightening resumed, the pop of the equity bubble." There are other
examples earlier in the 80s and 90s such as the Mexican peso crisis or the Savings (Shenzhen: 300056.SZ - news) and loan
crisis.
So, how does it look now?
"At the moment there are a host of idiosyncratic stories in EM that look to be largely
tangential victims," he says, adding however that the renewed strength in the dollar could
encourage the Fed to slow down.
Here are federal funds target rates since 1970:
(Julien Ponthus)
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ITALY, NOW WHAT? WILL IT LAST? WILL THEY DELIVER? (1050 GMT)
Italian markets are seeing some respite today after President Sergio Mattarella gave
political novice Giuseppe Conte a mandate to form a government, but the political situation in
Rome is far from settled and further bouts of selling pressure cannot be ruled out.
Here are a few takes on what to expect next now that the little-known Florence law professor
has been tasked to lead the first Italian government made up of anti-establishment parties.
* Matteo Ramenghi, CIO for Italy, UBS Global Wealth Management: "If Conte wins a confidence
vote
in parliament, M5S-Lega would have a thin majority in the senate; and given the two parties have
very different backgrounds, the government's lifespan would be in question."
* Adrian Hilton, Head of Global Rates and Currency at Columbia Threadneedle Investments:
"Developments in Italy over the past few weeks clearly present a risk for Italian assets and
also possibly for Europe. But the full extent of the damage will become clear only when the
tenuous contract between left-wing and right-wing coalition allies is converted into policy."
* Fabio Fois, European Economist at Barclays (LSE: BARC.L - news) : "We remain of the view it will be difficult
for a
5SM-L led government to approve in full their economic programme.... constraints to the
implementation of the economic programme pledged by 5SM and L could affect the duration and
stability of the legislature, unless 5SM and L do not soften considerably their stance."
And here's what Conte (pictured) told reporters late yesterday after holding two hours of
talks with Mattarella: "I will be the defense lawyer for the Italian people."
(Danilo Masoni)
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A CRYSTAL CLEAR CONSENSUS AGAINST EUROPEAN BANKS (1045 GMT)
"Banks remain the biggest underweight of mutual funds and an increasing number of active
managers have reduced further their exposure in this sector", Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS-PB - news) found after a review
of 780 funds which invest in European Equities.
"Generally, we find that, despite short-term price movements, active managers remain
underweight sectors which have often been considered ‘value traps’ since the Global Financial
Crisis (GFC): Banks, Autos, Utilities and Oil & Gas."
It's true that banks have persistently failed to deliver for those who believed their were
the best way to surf the now fading Euroboom or the ECB's ever-elusive path towards monetary
normalisation.
The woes of the sector are also still in the open with Deutsche Bank cutting more than 7,000
jobs to reduce costs and restore profitability.
Here's Goldman Sachs chart which shows how active managers are clearly staying away from the
sector:
Talking about value traps, here's Euro zone banks versus the broader Euro Stoxx since 2009:
(Julien Ponthus)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: AUTOS SKID, ARYZTA SINKS (0720 GMT)
It's a bad start to the day for autos stocks, with BMW (EUREX: BMWE.EX - news) , Daimler (IOB: 0NXX.IL - news) , and Volkswagen (IOB: 0P6N.IL - news) driving the
DAX down, falling 2 to 2.3 percent after the U.S. launched a probe into autos tariffs and
Beijing replied that it would defend its interests. Renault (LSE: 0NQF.L - news) and Peugeot (Other OTC: PUGOF - news) are also falling around
0.4 percent, and Europe's autos sector is down 1.2 percent.
Not looking good for Swiss specialty baking company Aryzta (IOB: 0MFY.IL - news) either. Its shares are
sinking 25 percent to a new record low, bottom of the STOXX after yet another profit warning.
On the positive side Electrocomponents (LSE: ECM.L - news) is jumping 7.6 percent after it increased its
full-year dividend and announced an acquisition. Tate & Lyle (LSE: TATE.L - news) is another gainer after
results, up 4.3 percent.
And Paddy Power Betfair is feeling the glow after it merged its U.S. business with
Fanduel. The gambling company's shares are up 2.6 percent.
(Helen Reid)
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WHAT TO WATCH AHEAD OF THE EUROPEAN OPEN (0649 GMT)
Stocks futures are pointing to another day in negative territory for European equities as
uncertainty over U.S.-China trade talks and concerns over the new coalition’s spending plans in
Italy overshadow the Federal Reserve’s more gradual approach to rate hikes, as per the FOMC
minutes.
Autos stocks are indicated to fall today after the U.S. launched a national security
investigation into car and truck imports – the worry is that this could lead to new U.S. tariffs
and potential pain for German automakers in particular as the United States is its
second-biggest export market after China.
In terms of a U.S.-China trade deal, Trump has said that it would need “a different
structure”, adding more uncertainty.
Among corporate news, Deutsche Bank is shaking things up with plans to cut thousands of
staff to reduce costs and boost profitability. Equities sales and trading is set to see a 25
percent reduction in headcount. All eyes will now be on today’s AGM. DB’s shares are down more
than 31 percent so far this year, so this could be welcome news for frustrated investors.
Stock movers/company news:
Deutsche Bank to cut thousands of staff in investment bank revamp [nL5N1SV0RG
Sales at Britain's Kingfisher (Frankfurt: 812861 - news) mauled by Beast from the East
Paddy Power Betfair (Other OTC: PDYPF - news) merging U.S business with FanDuel
Deutsche Telekom (IOB: 0MPH.IL - news) to tie dividends to growing bottom-line profits
Westfield (Frankfurt: A113BB - news) shareholders approve $16 bln Unibail-Rodamco (Brussels: NL0000288652.BR - news) deal
German carmakers' shares seen down on US auto tariffs probe
Elliott eyes operational improvements after taking Thyssen stake
Novartis (IOB: 0QLR.IL - news) receives EU approval for biosimilar Zessly
British lender Paragon (IOB: 0NFG.IL - news) 's H1 profit up 4.7 pct
Go-Ahead upgrades profit after greater efficiency boosts rail
Aryzta further cuts full-year EBITDA guidance
Payments firm Adyen to list in Amsterdam in June
Vontobel to buy private bank from Raiffeisen for $700 mln
EUROPEAN STOCKS FUTURES DIP SLIGHTLY (0613 GMT)
European stocks futures have opened broadly lower this morning as traders keep an eye on
political developments in Italy and trade talks between the U.S. and China.
Here's your futures snapshot:
(Kit Rees)
*****
WHAT'S ON THE EUROPEAN EARNINGS AGENDA (0555 GMT)
It's pretty light on the corporate earnings side today but we do have a few full-year
updates from the likes of Tate & Lyle, United Utilities (LSE: UU.L - news) and a trading update from Inchcape (Other OTC: IHCPF - news) in
the UK.
Here's a list of European companies reporting results today:
VIEV.VI Q1 2018 Flughafen Wien AG Earnings Release
UNIQ.VI Q1 2018 UNIQA Insurance Group AG Earnings Release
BAVA.CO Q1 2018 Bavarian Nordic A/S Earnings Release
A8AG.DE Q1 2018 JDC Group AG Earnings Release
NETG.TE Q1 2018 Net Gaming Europe AB Earnings Release
PENO.OL Q1 2018 Panoro Energy ASA Earnings Release
KAMUX.HE Q1 2018 Kamux Oyj Earnings Release
TATE.L Full Year 2018 Tate & Lyle PLC Earnings Release
UU.L Full Year 2018 United Utilities Group PLC Earnings Release
ECM.L Full Year 2018 Electrocomponents PLC Earnings Release
INCH.L Q1 2018 Inchcape PLC Trading Statement Release
CLDN.L Full Year 2017 Caledonia Investments PLC Earnings Release
GOG.L Q3 2017 Go-Ahead Group PLC Trading Statement Release
RWI.L Preliminary Q4 2018 Renewi PLC Earnings Release
(Kit Rees)
*****
MORNING CALL: EUROPEAN STOCKS SET FOR STEADY OPEN (0533 GMT)
Good morning. Following on from yesterday's negative session, European stocks are set to
start today's trading flat to slightly lower, according to financial spreadbetters, as markets
continue to mull the implications of the proposed spending spree from Italy's anti-establishment
coalition.
Britain's FTSE 100 is seen opening 5 points lower, Germany's DAX is expected to lose 4
points and France's CAC is seen opening flat, according to financial spreadbetters.
However, there may be some support for equities from the U.S. Federal Reserve's minutes,
which indicated a gradual approach to rate hikes, which boosted Wall Street slightly. China and
Hong Kong stocks were a touch lower as uncertainty over U.S.-China trade talks sparked caution.
(Kit Rees)
(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)