LIVE MARKETS-The yen earthquake: Risk on or risk off?

* European shares fall from record highs * STOXX 600 down 0.4%, FTSE little changed * Schneider up as virus hit seen temporary, Air France down * UBS names ING boss as CEO to replace Ermotti, shares up Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters. You can share your thoughts with Thyagaraju Adinarayan (thyagaraju.adinarayan@tr.com), Joice Alves (joice.alves@tr.com), Julien Ponthus (julien.ponthus@tr.com) in London and Danilo Masoni (danilo.masoni@tr.com) in Milan. THE YEN EARTHQUAKE: RISK ON OR RISK OFF? (1430 GMT) The safe-haven currency has breached the 112 mark against the dollar as recession fears rose and the long-term impact from coronavirus that has killed 1000s and is hurting businesses across Asia is seen burdening the already weak economy. Often seen as a key risk-on/risk-off indicator has left investors scratching their heads if the move in itself means that it's time to dive into risky assets such as stocks or worry if the world's third largest economy is perhaps heading for a recession. With the Bank of Japan firing on all cylinders injecting money into the system, Japanese funds were dumping local assets in favour of U.S. equities and gold. "The USD/JPY move yesterday was an earthquake that deserves our undivided attention and may prove the start gun for a significant expansion of market volatility," John J Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank, says. "Looking at a gold-in-JPY chart, we have seen an incredibly aggressive ramping to all time highs that has only accelerated recently suggesting that Japanese investors may be losing faith in domestic assets and piling into US momentum equities (likely not hedged) and now precious metals and that stimulus measures from Japan will be too weak to matter," Hardy adds. (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** ARE EUROPEAN STOCKS PRICEY? (1308 GMT) If you look at their valuations relative to U.S. stocks you would likely say no -- just look at this chart. But if you take into account the region's macro slowdown that has helped put the euro under pressure, perhaps the answer would be different. "Economic data out of Europe had begun to edge up slightly in 2020, but as with the recent Q4 GDP data, this release supports our thesis that until there is a pick-up in economic data, European equities appear expensive," says David Baker, Chief Investment Officer at Mazars. Data last week showed the German economy stagnated in the fourth quarter, renewing fears of a recession, while euro zone economic growth slowed to 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. This other chart shows how euro zone economic news disappointments have been growing as of late, further widening the gap versus U.S., which instead has positively surprised. (Danilo Masoni) ***** CORONAVIRUS ABSENCES: AS BIG AS ENTIRE U.S. WORKFORCE (0922 GMT) Imagine the entire U.S. workforce taking an unplanned break for two months -- that's exactly how big the impact is from Chinese workers away from factories and offices due to coronavirus, Goldman Sachs highlights. While stock markets continue to underestimate the potential impact from the deadly coronavirus and its impact on supply chain, Goldman Sachs believes the economic impact remains "highly uncertain". Why are markets shrugging off these risks? The reason could potentially be on the belief that the virus is largely controlled by quarter-end and macro policy continues to loosen. "Investors have largely taken the view that the impact will be temporary, hopefully short-lived, and that most of the weakness should be reversed with a strong rebound in the quarters that follow," GS adds. There's however limited upside from here, GS says, pointing to the fresh record highs set by U.S. and European stock markets. This rally has come despite dire warnings from behemoths such as Apple and this underestimation of the potential impact leaves equities vulnerable to correction. Meanwhile, the bank says commodities would be hit harder adding that it may be challenging to "make up" a large share of the demand lost from reduced transportation and property construction. (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** OPENING SNAPSHOT: EARNINGS DRIVE TOP MOVERS, SCHNEIDER UP (0831 GMT) European shares are down just slightly at the open with earnings driving top movers and warnings over the coronavirus outbreak having a mixed impact, possibly suggesting that investors see any damage from the virus as a temporary hit. Biggest gainer on the STOXX 600 is plastics recycler Tomra Systems, up 11% to a record high after Q4 results, while radiation therapy equipment maker Elekta is falling 9% after Q3 profit lagged expectations. Schneider Electric is up 4% on confidence the French electronic equipment maker will recover the 300 million euro coronavirus hit it expects in Q1. Shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk and Aveva are also up, despite flagging virus impacts. Air France-KLM, however, is down 6.9% after saying it expects the outbreak to wipe 150-200 million euros off earnings by April. UBS Group is reacting well, up 2%, to news that ING Groep's Ralph Hamers will lead the bank as CEO to replace Sergio Ermotti. Here's your opening snapshot: (Danilo Masoni) ***** ON OUR RADAR: VIRUS WARNINGS, UBS, RESULTS (0754 GMT) European shares are expected to pull back slightly from record highs after China delivered a rate cut that didn't exceed expectations and a rise in coronavirus in South Korea raised worries over the spread of the outbreak outside China. Euro zone stock futures are trading between flat and a 0.2% drop, while FTSE futures are 0.2% up. On the corporate news front, Air France-KLM and Schneider Electric became the latest companies to put a number on expected coronavirus damage. Shares in the Franco-Dutch carrier are seen falling 2-3% after saying it expects the outbreak to wipe 150-200 million euros off earnings by April, while the equipment maker predicted a 300 million euro cost in Q1. Shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk said coronavirus would weigh on earnings in 2020 and Aveva said the outbreak is having some impact on sales in China. Elsewhere the focus is on financials with a number of companies reporting results and after UBS tapped ING Ralph Hamers to lead the bank and succeeds Sergio Ermotti, who has been with UBS for close to a decade. Shares in the Swiss bank were indicated up 0.9% AXA lowered its 2020 earnings guidance for its disaster-related insurance business, while a 73% rise in 2019 net profit at Swiss Re missed expectations. Both shares are seen opening down 1-2%. UK lender Lloyds's FY pretax profit at matched expectations, even though a higher return for 2020 and a positive outlook could lift its shares. Eyes also on Julius Baer's after Switzerland's markets watchdog found serious shortcomings in its efforts to combat money laundering over nearly a decade. A 500-million-euro and earnings-accretive acquisition is seen lifting Dialog shares up 3%. Other stock movers: Spain's Telefonica targets stable revenue, profit in 2020; Anglo American's 2019 profit up 9% on higher iron ore, precious metals prices; Asia weakness drags on Accor revenue growth in 2019; Fresenius forecasts 2020 profit growth driven by drug, dialysis units; Moncler's CEO does not rule out M&A but no plan for now; Spain's Repsol posts profit slump and net loss on low prices, writedowns (Danilo Masoni) ***** DOWN FROM RECORD HIGHS (0642 GMT) European shares are expected to pull back after hitting yet another record high yesterday on hints of more China stimulus. Those hopes supported shares in Asia overnight but later they reversed course as virus cases rose in South Korea, even though China reported a dramatic drop in new cases in the province at the heart of the coronavirus outbreak. Financial spreadbetters at IG expect London's FTSE to open 27 points lower at 7,430, Frankfurt's DAX to open 59 points lower at 13,730, and Paris' CAC to open 25 points lower at 6,086. Meantime, EuroSTOXX 50 futures are down 0.15%. In corporate news, Air France-KLM and Schneider Electric are the latest companies to warn on coronavirus damage. The airline said it expects the outbreak to wipe 150-200 million euros off earnings by April, while the electrical equipment maker predicted a 300 million euro cost s in Q1. Financials also in the spotlight after UBS tapped ING Ralph Hamers to lead the bank and succeeds Sergio Ermotti, who has been with UBS for close to a decade. In results, AXA lowered its 2020 earnings guidance for its disaster-related insurance business, while a 73% rise in 2019 net profit at Swiss Re missed expectations. (Danilo Masoni) ***** (Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)