FTSE 100 LIVE: Wall Street and Europe higher as US retail sales beat forecasts

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A Bank of England official has stressed that Threadneedle Street's mind isn't made up about rolling out a digital pound.

Deputy governor Sarah Breeden said that the consultation on what has been dubbed by the press as 'Britcoin' is ongoing, with an exploration of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) a potential part of the future of digital payments in the UK.

In April 2021, the Bank said it would launch a task force in collaboration with the Treasury to explore the viability of a digital pound.

At the time, the BoE said any CBDC would be a new form of digital money that could be used by households and businesses. It would exist alongside cash and bank deposits and not replace them.

The Bank also previously said if it were to launch a CBDC it would not be until the end of the decade. It views one of its biggest risks as the potential for digital money to undermine confidence in money and payments and in the entire financial system.

Breeden said:

German airline Lufthansa downgraded its profit outlook for 2024 whilst posting a first-quarter loss.

It comes after recent strikes affected the company. It is warning of further risks from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Adjusted operating losses came in at €849m (£724m), compared to a loss of €273m in the same period last year, preliminary figures.

Wall Street stocks pushed ahead on Monday as US retail sales best forecasts.

According to the US Census bureau, retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in March — 4% higher than in the same period the year before.

Spending at non-store retailers was up 11.3% year-on-year, while takings at food services and drinking places were 6.5% higher than in March 2023.

General merchandise stores grew their sales by 5.7%, while miscellaneous store sales jumped 6.1%, suggesting that consumer spending remained robust.

The previous rise between January and February was also revised up from 0.6pc to 0.9%

Aluminium prices have surged by a record amount after Britain and the US banned the trade of Russian metals to “prevent the Kremlin funnelling more cash into its war machine”.

The price of aluminium at one point jumped by more than 9% on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Monday, which was the biggest rise seen since current trading began in 1987.

Nickel prices also leapt higher, climbing more than 8% at peak.

Elon Musk is set to cut staff numbers at Tesla (TSLA) by more than 10%, it has been revealed.

The firm will axe around 14,000 roles under the plan from its 140,000 workforce.

Musk announced the “difficult decision” in an internal memo to staff that was leaked to Electrek.

He said:

Samsung has taken the top phone-maker spot back from Apple, according to new figures from research firm IDC.

The latest quarterly data showed that overall global smartphone shipments increased 7.8% compared to the same time last year, however, Apple shipments dropped by nearly 10%.

As a result, Samsung has regained pole position, with a market share of 20.8%, ahead of iPhone maker Apple, which is second on 17.3%.

It comes after the two companies had switched places in the final three months of 2023.

According to the figures, the resurgence of Chinese brands such as Huawei drove the rise in overall phone shipments, and took market share from Apple.

A small market relief rally on Monday following Iran’s 300-strong missile and drone strike on Israel at the weekend does not mean investors can sit back and relax, traders have been warned.

​Nigel Green, chief executive at DeVere's said it was not the time for complacency.

He said:

Bank Goldman Sachs (GS) is set to report earnings on Monday before the opening bell in the US, with quarterly results set to be lower for the three months to the end of March.

Earnings are expected at $8.56 per share, down from $8.79 per share in the same quarter a year ago, according to Bezinga data.

The company is projected to report quarterly revenue of $12.9bn, compared to $12.2bn. Shares closed 2% lower on Friday and were down a further 0.6% in premarket on Monday.

Monday also sees earnings report from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.

See what other tickers are trending today

B&Q and Screwfix owner Kingfisher slipped after revealing that its chairman Andrew Cosslett is set to step down after seven years at the helm of the board.

Andrew will be succeeded by Claudia Arney, who has served as an independent non-executive director of the firm since November 2018 and currently also chairs the board’s remuneration committee. Her appointment will take effect at the same time.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Europe’s aviation regulator, has confirmed to airlines to exercise caution in Israeli and Iranian airspace.

Following continued conflict over the week, it said it would “continue to closely monitor the situation to assess any potential safety risks for EU aircraft operators and be ready to act as appropriate”.

Current guidance is that airlines should exercise caution in both country’s airspace.

The pound rallied against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) on Monday, rising around 0.3% in early trade to flirt with the $1.25 mark following fresh data last week which boosted hopes the UK is heading out of a recession.

My colleague Lucy Harley-McKeown writes:

Last week, sterling dipped as low as $1.24 against the dollar — its lowest price since November, as interest rate cut bets continue to fluctuate.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday showed that the UK economy grew slightly for the second month in a row in February, boosting hopes that Britain is escaping recession. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.1%.

Meanwhile, the dollar's strength last week came following new US consumer price index data released on Wednesday which came in above forecasts. Headline inflation jumped from 3.2% to 3.5% while core inflation, which was expected to fall, held at 3.8%.

The print resulted in markets dialling back rate cut hopes, the first of which had originally been pencilled in by economists for June.

The pound was also up around 0.1% against the Euro (GBPEUR=X) to trade at €1.17.

PageGroup (PAGE.L) shares have dropped 6% this morning after the recruitment firm posted lower first-quarter gross profit as the economic slowdown continued to hit the jobs market.

Gross profit for the first three months of the year fell 12.9% to £219.7m on an annual basis, with UK and Asia-Pacific operations down 19.2% and 22% respectively.

In March the firm recorded an 18% decline, which comes after a fall of 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The group said it saw a “slight deterioration” in job flow towards the end of the first quarter, with job seekers more wary of accepting offers and firms putting off recruitment decisions against an uncertain economic backdrop.

Nicholas Kirk, chief executive of PageGroup, said:

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, has said that traders are on alert for retaliatory action following Iran’s attack on Israel.

The US has already warned Israel that it would not join in with any retaliatory action, while UN secretary general Antonio Guterres urged for "maximum restraint".

Streeter said:

Analysts at Citi have said that oil prices could return to the $100 a barrel mark on the back of the conflict in the Middle East.

Analyst Max Layton wrote in a note to clients:

If oil prices returned to these levels then petrol prices would also surge.

Simon Williams, RAC fuel spokesman, said:

Israel’s shekel has risen against the US dollar in early trading today.

The currency gained more than 1.2% against the US greenback to hit 3.7128. This is its strongest level since last Wednesday.

Reuters attributes the move to relief that "Israel has not yet struck back at Iran, following Saturday’s attack."

Meanwhile, Israel’s stock market opened sharply higher. The Tel Aviv 35 (TA35.TA) index rose 1.4%, led by gains among financial, basic materials, real estate and industrial stocks.

UK workers who rent are set to be almost £4,000 a year better off as changes to universal credit roll out.

A renting single parent who works 30 hours per week on the national living wage will be nearly £3,800 per year better off in 2024-25 than if they were before, according to a report by the Resolution Foundation.

Universal credit is a monthly payment for people who are on a low income, unemployed or need help with living costs. How much you receive depends on various factors including your age, living situation, employment status, and whether or not you have children.

In his autumn statement, chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced that he would increase the local housing allowance (LHA) from April 2024 for one year. The LHA is the mechanism used to calculate the housing benefit element of universal credit.

Across the 2.7 million families in the private rental sector that are eligible for universal credit, the average gain compared to the old system is £1,200.

Meanwhile, under the government’s New Back to Work Plan, more than 1.1 million people with long-term health conditions, disabilities or long-term unemployment will be pushed to look for and stay in work. Those who don’t will face tougher sanctions.

According to the think-tank, people with disabilities will be the biggest losers of the overhaul. For example, a single person with a long-term disability that prevents them from working will now be £2,800 per year worse off.

Read the full article here

Inchcape (INCH.L) shares rose as much as 4.5% on Monday after it announced plans to sell its UK retail operations to US-based rival Group 1 Automotive for around £346m.

It comes after the London-listed car dealership firm said it was reviewing options for the UK business, including a possible sale, after “approaches from a number of interested parties”.

It currently employs 3,600 people across more than 80 sites.

Duncan Tait, group chief executive of Inchcape, said:

Meanwhile, gold prices (GC=F) continue to trade near their record highs as investors seek safe havens amid the Middle Eastern conflict,

The precious metal was trading more than 0.5% higher earlier this morning, close to its record high of $2,369.32, before later paring back some gains.

Mining stocks and banks pushed higher in early trade while oil companies slipped following Iran's reprisal attack on Israel over the weekend.

Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel after vowing retaliation for an attack on its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on 1 April.

Oil prices climbed close to six-week highs last week as markets prepared for a potential retaliation by Iran to a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy in Syria earlier this month.

Bartosz Sawicki, market analyst at Conotoxia fintech, said the geopolitical risk premium will remain elevated.

He said:

Iran is the seventh largest oil producer in the world, according to the US Energy Information Administration, and the third-largest member of the OPEC oil producers' cartel.

Asian stocks mostly tumbled overnight after Iran ramped up Middle East tensions by launching a rockets at Israel over the weekend, fuelling fears of a wider conflict in the volatile region.

The Nikkei (^N225) fell 0.7% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 0.6% in Hong Kong.

However, the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 1.3% up by the end of the session.

Elsewhere in Asia, Taiwan’s Taiex was 1% lower and the Sensex in India fell 1% as the country geared up for lengthy national election process.

Good morning, and welcome back to our first markets live blog of the week. Following along to stay tuned with what's moving markets, and what's happening across the global economy.

Here's a quick look at what's on the agenda for today:

• 7am: Trading updates: Berkeley Group, Ceres Power

• 10am: Eurozone industrial production for February

• 12.15pm: BoE deputy governor Sarah Breeden gives keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit 2024 “The outlook for payments innovation”.

• 1.30pm: US retail sale for March

• 3:00pm: US Business Inventories

• 3pm: NAHB’s US housing Market Index