Long-dated UK gilt prices jump on issuance plans
By Andy Bruce
LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - Long-dated British gilt prices
rose on Tuesday after the country's debt agency said it planned
to issue fewer of the bonds in the 2018/19 financial year than
analysts had expected.
The Debt Management Office (DMO) said it planned to issue
102.9 billion pounds ($143.9 billion) of gilts in 2018/19, close
to the consensus forecast of 100.7 billion pounds by 15 primary
dealers in a Reuters poll.
That marked the smallest volume of planned gilt sales since
2007/08 and was a reduction from the 115.1 billion-pound remit
for the current 2017/18 financial year.
The new issuance plans came after British finance minister
Philip Hammond presented his half-yearly budget update in
parliament. He outlined a fairly sombre outlook for economic
growth but a slightly better picture for the public finances
Gilt prices rose as Hammond said Britain's budget deficit
was likely to shrink a little faster than forecast previously,
but analysts said the move probably owed more to U.S. data
published around the same time that showed slowing inflation.
Gilts continued to follow German Bunds and U.S. Treasuries
in late trading, although the longest-dated British bonds
outperformed.
The DMO said it expected long-dated bonds to account for
28.5 percent of total gilt issuance in 2018/19, slightly less
than the 30 percent expected by primary dealers.
As a result, the 30-year gilt yield , which moves
inversely to the price, was down almost 4 basis points on the
day at 1.885 percent as of 1639 GMT.
The proportion of index-linked gilts will fall by 2
percentage points to 21.1 percent.
The DMO chief executive, Robert Stheeman, told Reuters this
reflected concerns about the high level of linker issuance and
the potential longer-term risk they posed to taxpayers. By
contrast, there was no intention to shorten the average maturity
of conventional bond issuance .
ADM Investor Services analyst Marc Ostwald said the DMO's
new remit was no surprise and said gilts would probably continue
to track major bond markets until next week, when British and
European Union negotiators will work on a Brexit transition
agreement.
"It's all very contingent on what does happen next week.
That is definitely going to push at which way people are going
to look at the Bank of England," Ostwald said.
BoE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) interest rates are still expected to rise in May
following a barrage of hawkish signals from policymakers, but
most economists polled by Reuters last week don't see a
follow-up move for another year.
Ten-year gilt yields fell 1 basis point on the
day to 1.49 percent.
The yield spread between 10-year British and
German government bonds stood at 87.0 basis points,
little changed on the day.
June long gilt future 121.38 (+0.15)
June 2018 short sterling 99.18 (+0)
Dec (Shanghai: 600875.SS - news) 2018 short sterling 98.97 (+0)
10-year gilt yield 1.49 (-1 bps)
-------------------KEY MARKET DATA---------------------------
Long Gilt futures Gilt benchmark chain
Short Stg futures Cash market quotes
Deposit rates Sterling cross rates
UK debt speedguide
-------------------KEY MARKET REPORTS--------------------------
Gilts Sterling
Euro Debt Dollar
U.S. Treasuries Debt reports
--------------------GILT STRIPS DATA -------------------------
Gilt strips data All gilt strips
Gilt strips IO Gilt strips PO
($1 = 0.7149 pounds)
(Editing by Larry King)