A Look At The Fair Value Of Intertek Group plc (LON:ITRK)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Intertek Group is UK£52.72 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Intertek Group's UK£47.62 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate

• Analyst price target for ITRK is UK£53.54, which is 1.6% above our fair value estimate

How far off is Intertek Group plc (LON:ITRK) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Intertek Group

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£422.0m	UK£452.7m	UK£477.7m	UK£476.0m	UK£477.5m	UK£481.0m	UK£486.1m	UK£492.2m	UK£499.2m	UK£506.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x10	Analyst x9	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Est @ 0.31%	Est @ 0.75%	Est @ 1.05%	Est @ 1.27%	Est @ 1.42%	Est @ 1.52%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9%	UK£395	UK£396	UK£391	UK£365	UK£342	UK£322	UK£305	UK£289	UK£274	UK£260

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£3.3b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£507m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (6.9%– 1.8%) = UK£10b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£10b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)¹⁰= UK£5.2b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£8.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£47.6, the company appears about fair value at a 9.7% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Intertek Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.936. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Intertek Group

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Professional Services market.

Opportunity

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the British market.

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Intertek Group, there are three important items you should consider:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Intertek Group you should know about.

2. Future Earnings: How does ITRK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com