Market anxiety dampens outlook for rising stocks-Reuters polls

* For poll data see

* Uncertainty dents forecasts for stock market gains

* Double-digit 2014 gains expected in only 4 indexes

* Japanese shares set to rise strongly from here

By Andy Bruce

LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - Anxiety about the path of U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions has put a sizeable dent into analysts' forecasts for stock market gains, Reuters polls showed on Thursday.

Global stocks have had a torrid start to the year, with several major indexes in Asia and Europe in the red.

And while the poll of more than 300 analysts showed all of the 21 stock indexes surveyed are expected to rise from now by the year's end, the bullishness of December's poll has been tempered significantly.

Three months ago, analysts expected around three-quarters of indexes to post double digit gains from mid-December through to the end of 2014.

Now, only four indexes in the latest poll are expected to finish this year with double-digit percentage gains versus 2013's close.

Emerging markets slumped at the start of the year, punished by signs of China slowing down and the global impact of a wind-down in U.S. monetary stimulus - effectively draining money from the system.

Thursday's polls were conducted before stocks tumbled after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the Fed will probably end its massive bond-buying programme in the second half of this year, and could start raising interest rates around six months later.

Global stocks as measured by the MSCI (NYSE: MSCI - news) world equity index dropped another 0.9 percent on Thursday, shortly before the polls were published.

And the strife between Ukraine and Russia further hurt riskier asset prices.

Analysts were asked to rate stock markets on their value on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being too cheap and 10 being very expensive.

Emerging nation shares were judged 4.5, a little below fair value, and for developed nations they were rated 6.0, or a tad overvalued.

"Emerging markets are cheaper than developed markets, but there is a lot more risk," said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors in New York (Frankfurt: HX6.F - news) .

A Reuters poll last week also showed that developed nations' sovereign bonds are expensive - rated 7.0 on the same scale - but are still expected to be well-bid.

LEADERS AND LOSERS

This year, developed market stocks will gain on average around 8 percent, less than half of last year's gain.

And while the poll showed almost all major indexes in both emerging and developed markets will rise from here, only six out of 20 will outperform their 10-year average for the full year in 2014.

Japan's Nikkei - one of the worst performers this year with an 11.2 percent plunge - is expected to bounce back with a 21 percent gain between now and the year-end.

Chinese and Mexican shares have also started the year badly, but analysts expect to see a resurgence there too.

Some regular respondents on Russian shares declined to participate in the latest poll, saying they couldn't predict how Moscow's IRTS index would fare given the crisis in Ukraine and its consequences for markets.

Of the eight who provided forecasts, they suggested a rebound for Russian shares still wouldn't make up for the 20 percent loss suffered so far this year.

U.S. stocks are expected to rank among the weakest performers, with the S&P 500 tipped for a yearly gain of 5.5 percent - its smallest since 2011 when it ended virtually flat.

"We're in a little bit of a negative risk-reward dynamic for equities," said Barry Knapp, managing director of equity research at Barclays Capital in New York.

Europe's gradual economic recovery should help stocks there extend their rally in 2014, fuelled by a long-awaited rebound in corporate profits and as global investors shift from emerging markets to Europe.

"Italy's MIB index should be particularly strong as it catches up after years of underperformance. It will benefit from an acceleration of reforms in Italy, with lower taxes and government spending cuts, said Gregorio de Felice, chief economist at Intesa Sanpaolo (Frankfurt: IES.F - news) .

Milan's FTSE MIB benchmark index - which is already up almost 11 percent since the beginning of the year - is predicted to gain a further 7 percent to end the year at 22,500.

And after performing miserably over the past year, Brazil's Bovespa index should move higher alongside a global economic recovery, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, while Mexican shares will likely recover as market reforms take effect.

(For other stories from the poll see ) (Additional reporting by Rahul Karunakar and reporters in London, Paris, New York, Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, Frankfurt, Milan, Sao Paulo, Toronto, Seoul and Moscow; Analysis by Hari Kishan and Swati Chaturvedi; Polling by Reuters Polls Bangalore; Editing by Toby Chopra)