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Marketing Efforts to Aid Chipotle (CMG) Amid Cost Challenges

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG will likely benefit from innovative marketing, technological advancement and strategic expansion. Also, the emphasis on throughput improvement bodes well. However, operational challenges and inflationary pressures are a concern.

Let’s delve deeper.

Key Catalysts

Chipotle's marketing efforts have been pivotal in driving sales and customer engagement. Campaigns like the ‘Behind the Foil’ series, which highlights the real teams preparing fresh food daily, have reinforced the brand's commitment to quality. The promotion of Braised Beef Barbacoa and the limited-time return of Chicken Al Pastor has successfully attracted more customers and increased transaction volumes. The campaigns not only spotlight existing menu items but also capitalize on consumer insights to enhance product appeal.

Chipotle's investment in its digital platform has paid off handsomely. During the first quarter, digital sales represented 37% of total sales, providing a boost to overall revenues. The company's robust rewards program, with a digital reach of 40 million members, has been a key driver in this area. Chipotle continues to explore innovative technologies, such as the automated digital make line and Autocado, to improve efficiency and customer experience further.

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Chipotle focuses on improving throughput in its restaurants to drive growth. By streamlining operations and enhancing service speed, CMG managed to serve more customers efficiently. This is evident from their recent performance, where they achieved the highest throughput levels in four years. The strategic implementation of the ‘four pillars’ of throughput, which include key operational roles and readiness for peak times, is adding to the positives.

Chipotle's growth strategy includes aggressive expansion, both in North America and internationally. The company opened 47 new restaurants in the first quarter, including 43 with Chipotlanes, its drive-thru format designed to enhance convenience. The successful entry into new markets, such as the opening of its first restaurant in Kuwait, marks a significant step in Chipotle's international growth plans.

Financially, Chipotle has shown impressive performance at the restaurant level. During the first quarter, the restaurant-level margin came in at 27.5%, up by 190 basis points year over year. This improvement reflects the company's effective cost management and operational efficiencies. The ability to maintain strong margins while expanding rapidly is a testament to Chipotle's sound financial strategy and execution.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research


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Chipotle’s shares have surged 47.2% year to date against the industry’s 3.8% decline.

Concerns

Chipotle faces several operational challenges as it navigates transitions in its menu and promotional offerings. The conclusion of the Chicken Al Pastor promotion, along with the need to lap last year’s menu price increase and the highly successful Carne Asada campaign, poses significant hurdles. These transitions require strategic planning to maintain customer interest and ensure smooth operational execution.

Chipotle is also contending with inflation across several ingredient costs, particularly beef, produce, and avocados. Although the previous year’s menu price increase provided some relief, the company still faces a protein mix headwind from the successful Beef Barbacoa marketing initiative. For the second quarter, Chipotle expects its cost of sales to rise to the mid-29% range, reflecting higher prices across several items, notably avocados. The company anticipates the cost of sales inflation to remain in the mid-single-digit range for the rest of the year.

Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Chipotle currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector are:

Wingstop Inc. WING sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. It has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 21.4%, on average. The stock has surged 121.9% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WING’s 2024 sales and earnings per share (EPS) suggests a rise of 27.5% and 36.7%, respectively, from year-ago levels.

Brinker International, Inc. EAT sports a Zacks Rank #1. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 213.4%, on average. EAT’s shares have risen 88.3% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EAT’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates 5.1% and 41.3% growth, respectively, from the year-earlier actuals.

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. LOCO currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 19.4%, on average. LOCO’s shares have risen 5.7% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LOCO’s 2025 sales and EPS indicates 3.8% and 9.9% growth, respectively, from the prior-year figures.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) : Free Stock Analysis Report

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Wingstop Inc. (WING) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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