Meritage Homes Stock Rises 9% in a Month: Still a Buy or Too Late?
Meritage Homes Corporation MTH stock has been rallying of late, gaining 8.8% over the past month. This Scottsdale, AZ-based company’s shares have also performed a little better than the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry’s 8.4% rise. The stock has fared better than the Zacks Construction sector and the S&P 500 Index’s 7.7% and 8.7% rallies, respectively.
The company has been reaping benefits from the resilient housing demand and the company’s progress in delivering quick-turning and affordable move-in-ready homes.
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Technically, MTH stock is trading above its 50-day moving average as well as its 200-day moving average. The company also outperformed other industry players like KB Home (KBH, up 7.1%) and Tri Pointe Homes (TPH, up 8.1%) during the same time frame.
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Factors Fueling MTH Stock Surge
Meritage Homes is thriving by implementing a dynamic strategy focused on quick-turn, move-in-ready homes, ensuring that properties are nearly complete before being released for sale. This approach, similar to the just-in-time inventory model, allows the company to meet the growing consumer demand for immediate occupancy efficiently.
A key highlight of this strategy is the 60-day closing guarantee, which offers buyers the assurance of moving into their new homes within just two months of purchase. This is particularly attractive in today's fast-paced market, where quick move-ins are highly sought after.
By targeting entry-level and first-move-up homebuyers, Meritage Homes is strategically positioned to cater to the largest segment of homebuyer demand. This focus on affordability makes the company an appealing option for a broad customer base, including those considering resale homes.
This move-in-ready strategy has proven to be a significant competitive advantage, especially as the resale market begins to stabilize. Buyers now have the convenience of moving into a brand-new home without the typical wait time associated with new construction, making the decision between new and existing homes easier.
The effectiveness of this strategy is evident in Meritage Homes' impressive sales performance. The company achieved an average of 4.5 net sales per month in the second quarter of 2024, surpassing its target of 4 net sales per month.
To support this growth, Meritage Homes has expanded its inventory, with approximately 6,500 spec homes available as of June 30, 2024. The company plans to continue enhancing and expanding this strategy, aiming for full implementation across all communities by next year. This includes ensuring that every community offers move-in-ready homes and aligning starts with the sales pace.
Additionally, the housing market is showing encouraging signs of strength, with new U.S. single-family home sales reaching their highest level in over a year in July 2024. This surge in sales, driven by a decline in mortgage rates, reflects growing demand and further signals a market recovery. According to the latest report from the Commerce Department's Census Bureau, new home sales soared 10.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units in July, marking the highest level since May 2023 and the most significant increase in sales since August 2022.
Additionally, U.S. existing home sales exceeded expectations in July, reversing four months of consecutive declines. Improved supply and declining mortgage rates have fueled optimism that the housing market could continue to rebound in the coming months. Existing home sales increased 1.3% in July, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.
MTH Stock Trading at a Discount
With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.13X, below the industry average of 11.53X, the stock presents a potentially attractive valuation for investors seeking exposure to the homebuilding industry. This suggests that investors may be paying a lesser price relative to the company's expected earnings growth. Yet, the company is trading currently at a premium compared to Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC with an almost similar market cap to that of MTH.
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Estimate Revision Favoring the Stock
Reflecting the positive sentiment around MTH, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has seen upward revisions. In the past 30 days, analysts have increased their estimates for the current and next year to $21.09 (from $20.95) and $21.98 (from $21.93), respectively. These estimates indicate year-over-year growth rates of 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively.
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Buy, Sell, or Hold MTH Stock
The company’s shift toward selling near-completed homes with a 60-day closing guarantee was validated by strong financial performance. This new strategy allows the company to compete effectively against resale inventory.
Yet, challenges related to ongoing mortgage rate volatility and the upcoming election cycle could impact buyer confidence and market stability. Also, despite strong second-quarter performance, the company adopted a conservative approach to its margin guidance for the second half of the year, anticipating the need for increased incentives.
Nonetheless, the Fed's clear indication of an upcoming rate cut and improving industry data depict confidence in the success of the company's move-in-ready strategy. Despite the company shares’ outperformance compared to its industry, its discounted valuation and upward revisions in earnings estimates reinforce its Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating, making MTH an attractive addition to investors' portfolios at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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KB Home (KBH) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Tri Pointe Homes Inc. (TPH) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) : Free Stock Analysis Report