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Mexico's dominant cartel is lashing out dissidents and rivals — and it could trigger an avalanche of violence
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Internal divisions may be splitting apart Mexico’s most powerful crime group, and that could lead to even more bloodshed in a country still reeling from its most violent year on record.
The latest indication of fragmentation within the Jalisco Cartel New Generation (Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación — CJNG) came on March 25 in the embattled border state of Tamaulipas, when a splinter faction of the CJNG known as the Northwest Cartel allegedly got into a deadly firefight with Mexican Marines.
Officials say the Northwest Cartel is fighting the CJNG over control of a major drug trafficking route in Tamaulipas, a strategic area for criminal groups transporting drugs and other contraband into the United States.
The shootout follows news earlier this month that the CJNG may have murdered a former member of the group named Ramón Sánchez Radilla, alias “El Marro,” who reportedly belonged to a breakaway faction of the CJNG known as “El 2.”
Another alleged member of El 2, Luis Emmanuel Rodríguez Cerros, alias “El Cholo,” was killed in August last year. El Cholo reportedly served as the right-hand man of CJNG boss Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho.” But in March 2017, he and others — including El Marro — were exiled from the group and ordered killed for their apparent role in the murder of a Colombian CJNG collaborator.
InSight Crime analysis
REUTERS/Alejandro Acosta
The CJNG has taken advantage of the splintering and weakening of other Mexican crime groups, like the Sinaloa Cartel, which has seen signs of deepening internal discord and attacks by rival groups following the arrest and later extradition of former kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. But the CJNG may now be suffering a fragmentation similar to the fissures that stripped the Sinaloa Cartel of its dominance.
Both Jaime López, a security consultant and former police official in Mexico, and former Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agent Mike Vigil said the fact that CJNG leader El Mencho is one of the most sought after drug capos in Mexico and the United States is partly to blame for the group’s fragmentation.
“When you have a cartel leader that is running from the law and rival cartels, it becomes increasingly difficult to manage the organization, and that’s when people within the organization seize upon opportunities to potentially take over,” Vigil said.
Vigil also suggested current Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada García may be stoking the fires of dissent within the CJNG.
REUTERS/Alejandro Acosta
“Even though they are enemies, I’m sure [El Mayo] has friends within the CJNG that he is pushing to cause an insurrection within the cartel,” Vigil said. “The Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG are Mexico’s only two powerful cartels, and by doing this he’s diminishing the CJNG’s power in order to put the Sinaloa Cartel back on top.”
López and Vigil stressed that the fragmentation of the CJNG does not bode well for Mexico’s broader security situation, and will likely contribute to a further escalation in violence.
Lopéz said the CJNG has “crossed the line with regards to violence towards federal agents and the military,” and the escalating conflict with the Mexican government is putting pressure on the group that could be contributing to its fragmentation.
Vigil warned that this could create a vicious cycle, especially given the CJNG’s reputation for aggression against rivals as well as the state and the public.
“One of the things we know is that when fragmentation occurs, you have smaller groups that come into play and fight for the same territory, and that’s going to lead to more violence against rivals, security officials and innocent people caught in the crossfire,” Vigil told InSight Crime.
The correlation between fragmented criminal groups and increased violence is a phenomenon seen elsewhere throughout the region. For example, after the demobilization of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – FARC), Colombia’s criminal landscape was left severely fragmented. This ultimately led to increased violence as dissidents from the peace process and other criminal networks fought each other for control over criminally strategic areas vacated by the FARC.
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