Moelis (MC) Down 2.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Moelis (MC). Shares have lost about 2.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Moelis due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Moelis & Company Q1 Earnings Beat, Expenses Rise Y/Y

Moelis & Company’s first-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share of 95 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 74 cents. The bottom line, however, reflects a decline of 7% from the prior-year quarter.

Results largely benefited from higher revenues. Also, the company had a solid liquidity position in the reported quarter. However, a rise in expenses is an undermining factor.

Net income (GAAP basis) was $73.6 million or 94 cents per share, down from $75.8 million or $1.00 per share recorded in the prior-year quarter.

Revenues Improve, Expenses Rise

Total revenues (GAAP basis) increased 14% year over year to $302.1 million. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $251.5 million.

Total operating expenses (adjusted basis) were $212 million, up 11% year over year. The rise was due to an increase in both compensation and benefits costs and non-compensation costs.

Other expenses (GAAP basis) were $2.2 million in the reported quarter against other income of $3.2 million in the prior-year quarter.

As of Mar 31, 2022, the company had cash and liquid investments of $301.5 million, with no debt or goodwill.

Share Repurchase Update

During the reported quarter, the company repurchased 2 million shares for $97.9 million.

Following the end of the quarter through Apr 26, Moelis & Company repurchased roughly 0.4 million additional shares for $16.5 million.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -6.33% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Moelis has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Moelis has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Moelis belongs to the Zacks Financial - Investment Bank industry. Another stock from the same industry, Morgan Stanley (MS), has gained 1.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2022.

Morgan Stanley reported revenues of $14.8 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -5.8%. EPS of $2.06 for the same period compares with $2.22 a year ago.

Morgan Stanley is expected to post earnings of $1.69 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -10.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -2.6%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Morgan Stanley. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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