Morgan Stanley ‘Cautious’ on Clean Energy Sector

While the November election of Donald Trump brought a smile to the fossil fuel industry, the reaction in the renewables energy sector was more subdued. Analysts at Morgan Stanley published a research note Tuesday affirming their Cautious outlook for the industry and expressing a preference for rooftop solar installers and stocks exposed to favorable wind market trends.

Overall, according to Morgan Stanley, there exists "heightened uncertainty" for the clean energy sector in the year ahead.

The analysts said they will be looking for clarity on tax reform proposals and the Trump administration's policies, further indications of price declines for solar modules, more closures and consolidations in the solar sector, an unexpected demand boost, more utility-scale solar projects, and positive earnings revisions.

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Morgan Stanley outlined five key themes for 2017:

1. Implications of the new presidential administration: We believe key renewable energy tax credits will stay in place, but uncertainty remains an overhang for the industry.

2. Tax reform impacts appear negative on the margin, but there are many variables.

3. We expect solar price declines to be an ongoing headwind for solar panel manufacturers.

4. Renewables economics are competitive and continue to improve rapidly.

5. We prefer wind exposed names over solar.

Here is how the firm rates five clean energy stocks:

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First Solar Inc. (FSLR) has an Equal Weight rating and a price target of $34. The company's next-generation module promises cost reduction and margin improvement potential, but the pricing environment "continues to be extremely challenging."

Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) has an Equal Weight rating and a price target of $3. The analysts like the execution on the company's growth plan and that new customers have provided some validation for Plug Power's value proposition. But project economics may be threatened by lack of a fuel cell investment tax credit.

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) has an Overweight rating and price target of $8. Morgan Stanley likes the company's growth potential and lower component pricing from suppliers.

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SunPower Corp. (SPWR) has an Equal Weight rating and a price target of $6. The analysts see a "challenged near-term growth outlook for utility-scale solar driven by oversupply and a competitive development landscape."

TPI Composites Inc. (TPIC) has an Overweight rating and a price target of $25. The company faces limited competition and has leverage to grow with wind demand and blade outsourcing in the global wind market.

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