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Morning Bid: Data is king, Fed its servant

Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

The verdict from investors appears to be that benign U.S. inflation trumps the Fed's rate outlook, clearing the way for gains in Asian equities, and potentially in Europe too.

The initial shock at projections for just one U.S. rate cut this year despite a very tame CPI reading just hours earlier was mitigated by Fed Chair Jay Powell's comments that many officials were on the fence over a second rate cut, and had just tacked an extra one onto 2025 instead.

With data dependency still the guiding principle, U.S. producer price readings due later on Thursday will get a lot of attention, overshadowing European releases such as Spanish inflation data and euro zone industrial production.


The conclusion of the Fed meeting means policymakers will be back on the speaking circuit, and New York Fed President John Williams kicks things off by moderating a discussion with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at an event hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

Williams has been of the mind - like Powell - that policy is in a good place to bring inflation steadily down to target.

Political intrigue is likely to stay squarely in the spotlight in Europe though, with Eric Ciotti asserting he is still head of France's Republicans despite his ouster over seeking a deal with the far right.

Embattled President Emmanuel Macron got some veiled criticism from his Renaissance party too, with his former prime minister and potential successor Edouard Philippe saying in a televised interview, "I'm not sure it's entirely healthy for the president of the republic to run a legislative campaign."

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

- U.S. PPI (May), weekly jobless claims

- Spain final CPI, HICP (May)

- Euro zone industrial production (April)

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)