MORNING BID EUROPE-From Brussels to Mars, tests for Europe

* A look at the day ahead from European Economics and Politics Editor Mark John and EMEA markets editor Mike Dolan. The views expressed are their own.

LONDON, Oct (Shenzhen: 000069.SZ - news) 20 (Reuters) - It is just too tempting not to draw a comparison between the two big European news items of the day: the European Union summit in Brussels and the uncertain fate of the European Space Agency's lander on Mars. In Brussels, British PM Theresa May's "Brexit means Brexit" mantra will likely be met with a stony-ish silence from other EU leaders determined not to be drawn into negotiations until May triggers Article 50; moreover, the bloc is seen struggling to make headway on problems ranging from migration to Vladimir Putin. On the Red Planet, meanwhile, European mission controllers are hoping for more information today on what has happened to the Schiaparelli probe after transmission of the data tracking its descent suddenly stopped. These are testing times for Europe indeed. As one ESA scientist said of the Mars probe: "It is clear that these are not good signs."

In the third European set-piece of the day, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi will do his by now all too familiar balancing act between over-promising and promising too little. The central bank's Governing Council is widely expected to keep policy unchanged, but the suspense is all around what clues Draghi gives of moves afoot to ensure there is scope for further stimulus in December. If it wants to extend its QE asset-buying programme, it will, for example, have to tweak some of the current rules of the scheme to counter the growing scarcity of some assets, notably German bonds. The bank announces its rate decision at 1145 GMT and Draghi hold a news conference at 1230 GMT.

MARKETS AT 0655 GMT

Polls, prediction markets and the peso give it to Hillary Clinton after the final debate, with just over two weeks to go to the election. CNN opinion polls conducted after the third and last debate overnight gave a comfortable win to the Democrat over Republican rival Donald Trump. Bookies and prediction markets now suggest more than an 80 percent chance of a Clinton White House. And the most sensitive market proxy of Trump's electoral fortunes - the Mexican peso - appreciated to six-week highs after the debate in another nod to Clinton.

The economic impact of Clinton's policy plans are seen to be growth-positive over the long-term and less burdensome on total Treasury debt ratios - but perhaps the biggest short-term impact is to keep a lid on volatility and allow the Fed to pull the trigger in December on its one and only interest rate rise of 2106. New York Fed chief Bill Dudley said clearly late Wednesday that the central bank was on course for that hike as long as the economy continued on its current trajectory. Futures are stuck to about a 70 percent chance. Early incoming Q3 US earnings numbers over the past week - certainly from the big banks - would also encourage the Fed to make its move before year's end. Rising oil prices, where Brent crude remains above $52 despite slipped back from overnight peaks above $53, will reinforce the argument. Ten-year Treasury yields and the dollar have all held firm, with euro/dollar still stuck below $1.10.

All of which spins us into today's ECB meeting. Draghi may want to counter recent talk of tapering the QE programme early and fly some kites about tweaks to scheme in December. But perhaps key to any market reaction will be his willingness or otherwise to entertain the idea of extending QE beyond March 2017 and whether he wants to emphasize again the need for macro policy shift to fiscal from monetary - a line now being emphasized not only by central banks, but by the likes of U.S. President Obama and UK PM May among others.

German bund yields are a fraction higher into the meeting. Eurostocks are marked to open slightly higher. Sterling remains stuck below $1.23 as May attends the EU summit in Brussels and its early week bounce on emerging parliamentary involvement in ratifying the Brexit plan has faded. Chancellor Hammond did his best to soften the "hard Brexit" stance when testifying to parliament on Wednesday and nodded to only a slight fiscal loosening in his Autumn budget statement next month. Asia markets were mostly flat earlier, with Tokyo stocks outperforming.

Upcoming events/data/ themes for market reports on Thursday:

* Europe corp events: Atos (Paris: FR0000051732 - news) , Publicis (Paris: FR0000130577 - news) , London Stock Exchange (Other OTC: LDNXF - news)

* EU summit in Brussels.

* Swiss Sept. trade

* UK Sept. retail sales

* Spanish government bond auction

* EZ Aug current account/investment

* Sweden Sept. jobless

* Turkey interest rate decision

* ECB meeting, press conference

* US Q3 earnings: Microsoft (Euronext: MSF.NX - news) , Amazon, PayPal, Bank of New (KOSDAQ: 160550.KQ - news) York Mellon, Travelers, T.Rowe Price, Union Pacific (Swiss: UNP.SW - news) , AA (Other OTC: AATDF - news) , Verizon (NYSE: VZ - news) , Chesapeake, PPG

* US Oct Philly Fed index, Sept. existing home sales

* Paraguay interest rate decision

(Editing by Larry King)