MORNING BID EUROPE-Draghi: pushing the case for stimulus

* A look at the day ahead from European Economics and Politics Editor Mark John and EMEA markets editor Mike Dolan. The views expressed are their own.

LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is all but certain to keep its rates and asset-buying package unchanged today, repeating its December pledge to preserve "substantial" stimulus, even if the economy is moving in the right direction. ECB president Mario Draghi can also argue the recovery is by no means self-sustaining, underlying inflation is weak and the political risk from key elections is still a worry. On oil prices, he may well acknowledge they are higher than expected but merely a one-off boost to inflation. His news conferences starts at 1330 GMT.

British PM Theresa May will likely use her Davos speech this morning to reassure her business audience that Brexit will be as smooth and orderly as she can make it. Her office yesterday played down Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson's latest verbal sally - comparing the French president's warnings of tough Brexit negotiations to the admonishments of a World War Two prison guard administering punishment beatings - as merely a "theatrical comparison". Her tone will nonetheless likely be more measured.

France's ruling Socialists hold their final debate today before the first of their primaries on Sunday, with a second round on Jan 29. They have not entirely abandoned hope of being able to find a candidate who might turn the tide in the spring election for the presidency, but the signs don't look good: a new Le Monde opinion has all of its candidates trailing behind the four main contenders, the Republicans' Francois Fillon, Marine Le Pen (Other OTC: PENC - news) of the National Front, Jean-Luc Melenchon of the Left Party and independent centrist Emmanuel Macron. The lens through which many observers see the Socialists' primaries is how the winner of it will affect Macron's chances of making the run-off -- the more left-leaning their final choice of candidate, the more space in the middle that gives Macron.

MARKETS AT 0755 GMT

The dollar rose against its currency basket after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she and other policymakers expected to raise rates a few times a year until 2019. That heartened dollar bulls concerned over remarks by Donald Trump that the strength of the U.S. currency was damaging the U.S. economy. The confirmation hearing of Steve Mnuchin, Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, will be a focus for markets on Thursday.

The dollar index is up 0.3 percent, with the greenback up 0.2 percent against the yen. The euro has made minor gains as has sterling, which fell more than 1 percent against the dollar on Wednesday.

Euro zone government bond yields are up across the board, in line with yields on U.S. Treasuries after their Yellen boost. European markets will be watching the ECB policy meeting and ECB chief Draghi's news conference, although, after introducing major changes to the ECB's bond-buying programme last month, no fireworks are expected this time. German 10-year yields are up 5 basis points at 0.33 percent, close to a one-month high.

European stocks futures are pointing to a higher open for European equities, building on gains made in the previous session. It's a busy day for earnings, with retailers Carrefour (Swiss: CA.SW - news) and Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize (TLO: AH-U.TI - news) both reporting. France's Safran (Milan: SAF.MI - news) made an offer for Zodiac Aerospace (LSE: 0NR6.L - news) .

Company news/stock movers: France's Safran (LSE: 0IU8.L - news) makes offer for Zodiac Aerospace; Credit Suisse (IOB: 0QP5.IL - news) finalizes $5.3 bln mortgage deal with U.S.; Deutsche Bank (IOB: 0H7D.IL - news) drastically cuts 2016 bonuses; Retailer Carrefour Q4 sales growth slows as France lags; Remy Cointreau (Swiss: RCO.SW - news) Q3 sales accelerate on progress in U.S. and China; Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize Q4 net sales up 54.5 pct to 15.1 bln euros; confirms outlook; BHP, Vale (Swiss: VALE.SW - news) , Samarco set June 30 deadline to resolve multibillion dollar claims; Mediaset (LSE: 0NE1.L - news) open to deal with Vivendi (LSE: 0IIF.L - news) , not interested in T.Italia (report); Jefferies cuts UK REITs on risks of reversal in foreign capital inflows; Moneysupermarket.com sees about 8 pct rise in op profit; N Brown (LSE: BWNG.L - news) on track to meet FY view after online drives Q3; Halfords holds profit expectation after Christmas sales rise; GSK grabs Astra executive to replace exiting pharma head; British Land (LSE: BLND.L - news) says mindful of potential headwinds going forward; Royal Mail (LSE: RMG.L - news) maintains forecasts after a strong Christmas.

Upcoming data/events/themes for market reports on Thursday

* Australia Dec jobless report

* Japan 5-year JGB auction

* India Dec CPI report

* Europe corp events: Remy Cointreau sales, Pets at Home (Frankfurt: A1XFE7 - news) sales, Moneysupermarket.com update, Ahold Delhaize update

* Spain government bond auction

* EZ Nov current account and investment flows

* Poland Dec industrial output, PPI, retail sales

* ECB meeting and policy decision, with press conference by ECB chief Draghi

* US Q4 earnings: Bank of NY Mellon, Amex, Union Pacific (Swiss: UNP.SW - news)

* US Dec housing starts/permits; Philly Fed's Jan index

* Chile (Stuttgart: 704599.SG - news) central bank policy decision

(Editing by Larry King)