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MORNING BID EUROPE-France's Macron - gaining momentum

* A look at the day ahead from European Economics and Politics Editor Mark John and EMEA markets editor Mike Dolan. The views expressed are their own.

LONDON, March 2 (Reuters) - Emmanuel Macron, now seen as the frontrunner in France's presidential election, has the chance this morning to build further on the momentum behind his campaign with the unveiling of his full manifesto.

He's already revealed that one measure will be to ban lawmakers from employing family members to carry out consulting activities -- a clear dig at his conservative rival Francois Fillon's legal difficulties over salary payments to his wife. Ultimately, though, it will be his economic policies that could come under most scrutiny. The next week or so could be crucial in seeing how he manages to attract new voters and so consolidate his position in the May runoff.

Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein, whose split caused the collapse of the compulsory coalition in January, are expected to come out easily on top in today's early elections. Less easy will be the ensuing negotiations to restore the province's power-sharing government and which could see an extended period of rule from London in the meantime. Final results start coming in on Friday.

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Eurozone inflation data for February is due at 1000 GMT, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the headline rate to come in at 2.0 percent, up on the 1.8 percent a month earlier. That will no doubt be seized on by monetary policy hawks as a sign that enough is enough on the accommodation front; however ECB chief Mario Draghi is just as likely to point to the core inflation rate -- seen at a more modest 0.9 percent once food and energy prices are stripped out -- as evidence that more is needed when he chairs next week's rate-setting meeting.

MARKETS AT 0755 GMT

Whoosh. The surge in global markets to record highs on Thursday was loosely put down to US President Trump’s still vague, if conciliatory and well-received, speech to congress. But to say it was hooked on any new specifics on economic policy would be stretching the narrative – the $1 trillion of unspecified infrastructure spending has been around since the campaign and all we got on tax cuts was "massive" to add to "phenomenal".

True, construction and mining sectors did help the rally and Europe’s construction stocks hit their highest in almost 10 years. But the equity market, dollar and bond yield jumps around the world were much more to do with Fed hawkishness and soaring expectations of a rate rise as soon as March 15 – with implied probabilities of a hike, encouraged by another unexpectedly hawkish tilt from arch dove Lael Brainard overnight, now put at about 70 pct.

That’s why banking stock indices, now automatically seen as beneficiaries of a rate rise, gained up to three percent on Wall St and in Europe. But the Fed would not be comfortable with a rate hike this month if the underlying economic soundings weren't so robust around the world.

February manufacturing surveys are consistent with a near 4 percent annualized expansion of global industrial production, according to JPMorgan (LSE: JPIU.L - news) estimates. Trump or no Trump, incredible momentum has built up behind this expansion. A U.S. fiscal stimulus, whenever and however it comes, may just be a carrot dangled to keep confidence up. And, as often for markets, the journey may be more rewarding than the arrival. The rally has certainly been widely spread around the world.

Not only did Wall St indices set new records again and the Dow Jones top 21,000 points for the first time, but the European STOXX600 hit its highest since 2015. MSCI’s World Index, which comprises 46 national stock markets, also hit a record high in its biggest one-day gain since early December.

Apart from Trump and the Fed, European political and economic news has been a significant tailwind too. The latest damage to French presidential candidate Fillon’s chances were seen as positive at the margins for centrist favourite Macron and reduced French debt premia over Germany to their lowest in a month. German inflation, meantime, topped forecasts and the ECB’s target rate to hit 2.2 pct last month and the wider euro zone flash inflation reading out today is set to confirm that the headline inflation target of 2 pct will have been met for the bloc as a whole.

The combination of the punchy factory numbers, rising inflation, easing political tensions, hawkish Fed and soaring stocks combined to send German 2- and 10-year bund yield surging too – almost completely reversing steep losses in both over the past two weeks. Overnight, Asia bourses continued the stock market rally, with the exception of a small retreat in Shanghai. Wall St futures show a slight tick back, but European stocks are expected to open higher. OAT/Bund spread has narrowed again this morning to as low as 61 bp. The dollar index is higher, euro/dollar steady and Brent crude steady.

Upcoming events/data/ themes for market reports on Thursday:

* European company results: Anheuser Busch, Adecco (Swiss: ADEN.VX - news) , GAM Holding, Continental (IOB: 0LQ1.IL - news) , Schroders (Frankfurt: 929969 - news) , Hunting (Frankfurt: 0YT.F - news) , Travis Perkins (Frankfurt: 893509 - news) , Capita (LSE: CPI.L - news) , Cobham (Other OTC: CBHMF - news)

* Swiss Jan retail sales; Q4 GDP

* German Jan import prices

* UK auctions 2022 gilts

* France auctions government bonds, or OATs

* Spain auctions government bonds; Q4 GDP

* EZ Feb flash inflation

* Northern Irish Assembly elections

* Norges Bank chief Olsen speaks in Bergen

* Ukraine central bank policy decision

* US corp events: Staples (NasdaqGS: SPLS - news)

* Canada Q4 GDP

* Cleveland Fed chief Mester speaks in NYC

(Editing by Richard Lough)