Advertisement
UK markets closed
  • FTSE 100

    8,433.76
    +52.41 (+0.63%)
     
  • FTSE 250

    20,645.38
    +114.08 (+0.56%)
     
  • AIM

    789.87
    +6.17 (+0.79%)
     
  • GBP/EUR

    1.1622
    +0.0011 (+0.09%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.2525
    +0.0001 (+0.01%)
     
  • Bitcoin GBP

    48,603.66
    -1,865.73 (-3.70%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,258.64
    -99.37 (-7.32%)
     
  • S&P 500

    5,222.68
    +8.60 (+0.16%)
     
  • DOW

    39,512.84
    +125.08 (+0.32%)
     
  • CRUDE OIL

    78.20
    -1.06 (-1.34%)
     
  • GOLD FUTURES

    2,366.90
    +26.60 (+1.14%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    38,229.11
    +155.13 (+0.41%)
     
  • HANG SENG

    18,963.68
    +425.87 (+2.30%)
     
  • DAX

    18,772.85
    +86.25 (+0.46%)
     
  • CAC 40

    8,219.14
    +31.49 (+0.38%)
     

MORNING BID EUROPE-Poland: a new face for Law and Justice

* A look at the day ahead from European Economics and Politics Editor Mark John and EMEA markets editor Mike Dolan. The views expressed are their own.

LONDON, Dec (Shanghai: 600875.SS - news) 12 (Reuters) - Poland's newly sworn-in prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki is due to outline his policies at 1500 GMT today, with some in Brussels hoping his appointment could help ease the tensions between Warsaw and the EU that have been building for months. Poland's ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) is at odds with the EU over immigration, attempts to control the courts and the media and even the logging of an ancient forest. A centrist and a fluent English-speaker, Morawiecki is tasked not only with improving the dialogue with Europe but also expanding PiS's appeal to middle-of-the-road Polish voters ahead of a busy election cycle starting next year. European Council President and fellow Pole Donald Tusk has called on him to pursue European unity; but former President and arch PiS critic Lech Walesa is less sanguine: "The circus has stayed the same, only the clowns have changed their roles," he tweeted.

Some 50 world leaders gather in Paris today for the "One Planet" summit aimed at ensuring there is enough funding to combat global warming and help poorer nations deal with its impact. Needless to say, Donald Trump - who announced in June he was pulling the U.S. out of the pact - will not be among those world leaders. The United States will send only an official delegation from the Paris Embassy (oh, and Leonardo Di Caprio will be there too). Pointedly, France's Emmanuel Macron announced yesterday that he would award multi-year grants for 13 U.S.-based climate scientists to relocate to France and pursue their work there.

British consumer price inflation due at 0930 GMT is forecast to hold at a five-year high of 3 percent for a third straight month in November, as the effect of sterling's fall after last year's Brexit vote continues to push up prices and squeeze consumer spending. Any increase above 3 percent will force Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to write a letter to Britain's finance minister explaining how the central bank intends to get inflation back to its 2 percent target. On the politics front, things may be looking up a bit for Theresa May after she clinched the deal last week on the first part of the Brexit negotiations: a YouGov (LSE: YOU.L - news) poll taken at the weekend showed her Conservatives ahead of Labour for the first time since June; and ITV (Frankfurt: A0BLQP - news) is reporting that police testimony has not proven that her First Secretary of State Damian Green watched porn on a parliamentary computer, meaning she will be able to keep him in post and avoid a tricky cabinet reshuffle. May's office has declined to comment on the report.

ADVERTISEMENT

MARKETS AT 0755 GMT

Asia stock markets fell back overnight despite a positive day on Wall St on Monday, with markets bracing for a widely-expected third U.S. interest rate rise of the year on Wednesday. Chinese stocks led the way down earlier after data showed domestic bank lending credit hit a record after a surge in November. While that may act as a short-term spur to economic activity, markets are wary it will encourage further monetary and regulatory tightening from Chinese authorities and in the slipstream of higher Federal Reserve interest rates stateside. While the U.S. rate rise this week is not in doubt in most people's eyes, there will be a close eye on what it’s signalling for next year and speculation about what the Fed may assume about the impact of tax cuts on already brisk economic growth and employment.

China’s CSI300 blue chip index ended down 1.3 percent earlier, underperforming most Asian bourses. Japan’s Nikkei225 was down about 0.3 percent and Seoul’s Kospi down 0.4 percent. That contrasted with the upbeat session on Wall St overnight, where tech and energy stocks led the way higher and the Vix volatility gauge slipped toward 9 percent – its lowest close in over a month. Energy stocks were aided by a jump in Brent crude to above $65 for the first time in more than two years, as a shutdown of the Forties North Sea pipeline knocked out significant supply to the market. Apart from monetary policy concerns, traders were also wary of growing trade tensions between Europe and the United States after five European finance ministers wrote a letter to the White House on Monday expressing concern over details of the U.S. tax reform bill that could discriminate against overseas firms in a way that breach international trade rules and lead to possible retaliation.

European stocks were set to follow Wall St’s rather than Asia lead, however, and futures were marked higher early Tuesday. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields were steady. Sterling traders will keep a close eye on UK inflation numbers out later, with the Bank of England holding its final meeting of the year this week.

In the crypto-world, bitcoin showed some unusual signs of stability after the first full day of the CBOE’s new futures contract. Spot bitcoin was quoted around $16,600, with the one-month futures dropping more than $700 to $17,800 – a premium of less than 10 percent over the coming month.

Upcoming events/data/ themes for market reports on Tuesday:

Europe corp events: Metro Q4 earnings, BASF investor forum, TUI (LSE: 0NLA.L - news) full-year earnings, Dixons Carphone H1 earnings, Industria de Diseno Textil 9M earnings, Sanofi (LSE: 0O59.L - news) analyst day, Aurubis Q4 earnings, Bellway AGM, Barry Callebaut AGM, Amadeus investor day, Roche investor update, Compagnie des Alpes (LSE: 0N7N.L - news) results

* Germany auctions 2-year schatz

* Germany Dec ZEW index

* UK, Sweden Nov inflation reports

* French finance minister speaks on France’s EU policy

* UK outlines Brexit blueprint in parliamentary debate

* Czech Oct trade

* SAfrica, India, Mexico Oct industry output

* India Q3 trade

* Georgia/Uganda central bank policy decisions

* US Nov PPI inflation

* Israel Nov inflation

* U.S. Treasury auctions 30-year bonds

* Argentina central bank policy statement, Nov inflation

(editing by John Stonestreet)