Morning MoneyBeat Europe: Caution to Reign Despite New Dow Record

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Good Morning Europe

Another cautious open is expected for European mainboards despite yet another record-high close for the Dow in New York Wednesday.

Local markets seem to be looking for a new catalyst while keeping more than half an eye on developments in Greece. Hopes that a deal will eventually be done endure, although most market watchers are still wondering quite how Athens is going to appease both its creditors and local voters.

They day will bring a second look at U.K. GDP for the old year's last quarter, with no revisions expected to the relatively perky initial estimate, and a look at German employment levels which are expected to underline that country's outperformance in the euorzone yet again.

Impetus from Asia is positive. The Nikkei closed at its highest point since mid-April 2000 on news that Japan's gargantuan public sector pension fund will be putting more cash into local stocks.

Market Snapshot: U.S. markets (Wednesday close) DJIA up 0.1%, Nasdaq flat, S&P 500 down 0.1%. Nikkei (Thursday close) up 1.1%. Brent crude up seven cents at $61.70. Gold up $9.60 at $1211.40. EUR/USD at $1.1365, USD/JPY at ¥118.97. 10 year Treasury yield 1.96%, Bund 0.28%, Gilt 1.72%.

Watch For: German labor market numbers, a second look at the U.K.'s GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014, Italian consumer confidence and Europe's business climate index are all due. From across the Atlantic will come U.S. durable goods orders, consumer price data and a look at weekly jobless claims.

What You May Have Missed on MoneyBeat:

Eurozone Prospects Brighten: Whisper it quietly, but things are looking up in the eurozone. Developments in the eurozone economy have over recent weeks been pushed into the shadows by Greece’s negotiations with its creditors over extending its bailout program. All the focus was on worries that no deal would be reached, that Greece would default and that the impact of a default could cascade through the region’s other economies.

Eurozone Equities in ‘New Cycle’ — Euronext: Stock markets in the eurozone are at the beginning of a new, positive cycle, with the European Central Bank driving a more dynamic market through its sovereign-bond purchasing program, pan-European exchange Euronext said Wednesday.

About That FTSE Performance…: After 15 years, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 has finally returned to its all-time highs. The index on Tuesday reached the level it previously hit on the final trading day of 1999—but that doesn’t mean returns for investors have been zero. If you include dividends paid out by FTSE 100 companies, the index has returned 3.4% a year.

Rubenstein’s Ten Predictions for the Buyout Industry – At A Glance: Carlyle Group Co-Founder David Rubenstein predicts more transparency, standardization, lower returns and perhaps even a new name are all in store for the private equity industry.

Turkey’s War of Words Take Fresh Turn After Rate Cut: More trouble for Turkey’s monetary policy makers. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday questioned the central bank’s independence and slammed its policy chiefs for not cutting interest rates more quickly, sending the lira tumbling 1% against the dollar.

The World Economy, According to Barclays: Barclays on Tuesday published the 60 edition of its flagship annual research report the Equity Gilt Study. It is, as ever, a treasure trove of smart ideas and observations on the world economy and financial markets. But it also clocks in at 201 pages. So we’ve trawled through this weighty tome to pick out five interesting talking points.

Copper Signal May Be Flashing Green: A key signal in the copper market is starting to flash green, with bets that copper prices will continue to fall recently hitting a record high on the London Metal Exchange. For some, that suggests the red metal’s fortunes may be about to turn, as there’s simply no more stomach to bet against the red metal.

From The Wall Street Journal

ECB Faces Struggle in Sourcing Bonds : The European Central Bank has pledged to buy hundreds of billions of euros of government bonds to help revive the eurozone economy. Now it will have to find them.

Financial Pressure on Ukraine Mounts : The National Bank drastically limited access to scarce foreign currency in a fresh effort to halt the hryvnia currency’s free fall, and Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to halt natural-gas deliveries.

Oil Puzzle: How Much Does China Need? : China has snapped up oil at low prices to build up its stockpiles, buying that has made it even more difficult to assess actual demand from one of the biggest crude importers.

Greece Wants Its Citizens to Pay Up : Prodding its citizens to pay their taxes has long been one of Greece’s most difficult challenges.