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NASCAR at Atlanta betting preview: Is this the week for a Kevin Harvick win?

Nick Bromberg
·2-min read

QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500

3 p.m. ET (Fox)

Kevin Harvick enters Sunday's race at Atlanta as the betting favorite.

He's the obvious pick given he's won two of the last three races at the track and has been, by far, the best driver at the track lately.

If Harvick doesn't win another veteran probably will. All of the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway have been won by a driver in his fourth Cup Series season or later since Kasey Kahne won in his third season in 2006. Tire-saving and the ability to find speed over the course of long green-flag runs are the keys to winning at Atlanta. It's no surprise that the track favors drivers who have been around a while.

Here's a look at who you should bet on Sunday. Odds are via BetMGM.

The favorites

Kevin Harvick, +550

Martin Truex Jr., +650

Kyle Larson, +650

Brad Keselowski, +750

Denny Hamlin, +750

It’s a little surprising that Harvick doesn’t have better odds compared to the rest of the field. Harvick has finished second, sixth, ninth, first, fourth and first in the last six Atlanta races and has led over 100 laps in all but one of those races.

Truex has finished in the top eight in each of those last six races too and he’ll have the benefit of running the Xfinity Series race at Atlanta on Saturday. Larson won at Las Vegas and should benefit from Atlanta’s worn out pavement.

Good mid-tier value

Ryan Blaney, +1600

Tyler Reddick, +8000

Blaney comes in as the No. 9 favorite on the board and significantly behind both teammates Keselowski and Joey Logano (+900). He has just one top-10 finish at Atlanta in five career starts but that came in 2020 when he finished fourth. Given Team Penske’s early speed so far in 2021, Blaney is a good bet to be near the front on Sunday.

Reddick was second at Homestead after he was the fastest driver in the closing laps of the race. While Harvick has been the dominant driver at Atlanta by running the bottom in recent years, it’s possible to make time in the top groove here too. That suits Reddick as a decent bet at these odds.

Don't bet this driver

Kurt Busch, +2200

Busch is extremely solid at Atlanta. He has three wins and has finished no lower than 13th since that third win. That’s a run of 10 races … but that also means Busch hasn’t won at Atlanta since 2010. While Busch should have another good run again on Sunday, there’s little reason to think he’s going to win.

Looking for a longshot?

Chris Buescher, +20000

This is nothing more than a pick hoping that the speed Buescher showed at the middle point of the Homestead race comes through at Atlanta.

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