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Network Operator Capex to Hit $591B in 2025, Q3 2021 Forecast Report

·3-min read

Dublin, Sept. 15, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Network operator capex to hit $591B in 2025" report has been added to's offering.

This commentary explains the network spending forecast update issued in August 2021, comparing it to the forecast published in December 2020.

This forecast revision is modest: market dynamics are largely as predicted in December 2020, and most projections are on track. However, some changes have occurred.

  • Webscale continues to grow rapidly and record high profits. Webscalers are getting a boost from the lingering of COVID-19, with work and study from home becoming a long-term reality in many markets. Key cloud players are boosting capex outlook due to data center expansion, and also spending more rapidly on non-tech avenues like logistics and fulfillment.

  • There is strong private equity interest in the carrier-neutral sector, with a focus on data centers. The increased PE interest in carrier-neutral models is enticing more telco asset spinoffs, including at Telefonica, Telstra, Singtel, PCCW, Indosat Ooredoo, PLDT, and Optus (some deals still under discussion).

  • The publisher has significantly expanded its coverage of software capex in the telco sector. Over the last 8 months, they have increased their sample size from 24 telcos to 63, and recalculated capex historically for all these providers. The result is twofold: one, a change in historic telco capex estimates (down for 2011-15, up for 2016-19); two, an improved estimate of software's share of total capex in the telco sector. The trend in this metric is still positive, but at a more moderate clip.

  • MTN Consulting has tweaked the Network/IT vs. All other capex splits for most key webscalers. The result is to decrease the Network/IT percentage of total. Both Network/IT and All other capex projections are up in this new forecast, but All other's 2025 total is up by 35% while Network/IT is up by a more modest 15%. As webscalers use their cash and brands to expand, the tech spend piece gets a bit smaller as a share of total.

The 12/20 forecast called for total capex to climb from $425B in 2020 to $520B in 2025. The new forecast starts from a higher baseline, $457B in 2020, and grows to $591B in 2025. Webscale capex is slightly more important, accounting for 42% of 2025 capex from 39% in 2025 under the last forecast.

Key Topics Covered:

1. Summary

2. Telco Market Forecast

3. Webscale Market Forecast

4. Carrier-neutral Market Forecast

5. Appendix 1: Additional Charts

Companies Mentioned

  • Alphabet

  • Amazon

  • Deutsche Telekom (DT)

  • Facebook

  • Indosat

  • Microsoft

  • Ooredoo

  • Optus

  • Orange

  • PCCW

  • PLDT

  • Singtel

  • Telefonica

  • Telstra

  • Vodafone

For more information about this report visit

CONTACT: CONTACT: Laura Wood, Senior Press Manager For E.S.T Office Hours Call 1-917-300-0470 For U.S./CAN Toll Free Call 1-800-526-8630 For GMT Office Hours Call +353-1-416-8900

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