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NFL Week 16 betting roundup: Chiefs losing streak against the spread extends to 7 games

Sam Cooper
·5-min read

The Kansas City Chiefs have been very good to bettors under Andy Reid, but things have changed in 2020.

Since Reid’s tenure began back in 2013, the Chiefs are 76-57-4 against the spread — a covering rate of 57.1%. Over that span, that’s the third-best rate in the NFL behind the Minnesota Vikings (58.8%) and New England Patriots (58.6%).

The Chiefs have been at least .500 against the spread in all seven of Reid’s seasons, including a sparkling 13-5-1 ATS mark last year during the team’s run to the Super Bowl.

But that streak is in jeopardy of coming to an end in 2020 as the Chiefs are in the midst of a horrific run against the spread.

At BetMGM, the Chiefs closed as 11-point favorites at home against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, but needed a touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes with just 1:55 remaining and a missed 39-yard field goal from Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo to eke out a 17-14 win.

The Chiefs improved to 14-1 — the NFL’s best record — with the win, but are now 6-8-1 against the spread in 2020. Sunday’s game marked the seventh straight outing that the Chiefs have failed to cover the spread. The last time the Chiefs covered the spread was on Nov. 1 against the New York Jets.

The Falcons covering the spread was a big win for BetMGM as 75% of the bets and 69% of the money placed on that game came on the side of the Chiefs. The game fell well under the total of 53.5 as well. That was another win for BetMGM at 87% of the bets and 92% of the money were on the over.

“I never thought we’d have a bookmaker saying a team with a 14-1 record has been good for the books, but the Chiefs have for the last seven weeks,” Jeff Stoneback, the Director of Trading for MGM Resorts, told Yahoo Sports.

Jets win, cover once again

The New York Jets and Chiefs may be almost complete opposites in terms of win-loss record, but the two teams have near-identical ATS records.

Last week, the Jets won outright as a whopping 17-point road underdog against the Los Angeles Rams. It was New York’s first win of the season, and the Jets pulled off another upset on Sunday, knocking off the Cleveland Browns 23-16 as 6.5-point home underdogs.

The Jets improved to 2-13 overall with the victory and are now 6-9 against the spread at BetMGM. The Jets started the year 0-6 ATS but have since covered in six of their last nine games.

One bettor cashed in on the Jets big-time. At BetMGM, the bettor wagered $220,000 on the Jets +6.5 and won $200,000. Most of the bets came in on the side of the Browns, though, with MGM reporting 90% of bets and 91% of the money on Cleveland.

“The Jets have become the sportsbook’s favorite team in recent weeks,” Jason Scott, the VP of Trading at BetMGM, said.

New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass during the second half of an NFL football game as offensive tackle Mekhi Becton (77) blocks Cleveland Browns' Myles Garrett, Sunday, Dec. 27, 2020, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)
New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass during the second half of an NFL football game as offensive tackle Mekhi Becton (77) blocks Cleveland Browns' Myles Garrett, Sunday, Dec. 27, 2020, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Cowboys, Packers, Bengals, Steelers big winners for house

There were four massive bets in excess of $200,000 that lost at BetMGM on Sunday, making it a big day overall for the house.

One bettor wagered $220,000 on the Indianapolis Colts -1.5 at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts led 24-7 well into the third quarter, but the Steelers rallied and pulled out a 28-24 victory.

Elsewhere, Stoneback said there was “a $200,000 bet” on the Houston Texans as 7.5-point favorites at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. It was a game the Bengals won outright, 37-31. At MGM, 72% of the bets and 64% of the money came in on Houston’s side.

Later Sunday afternoon, there was a $220,000 bet on the Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 on the road against the rival Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles jumped out to an early 14-3 lead, but ended up getting blown out 37-17.

“Bettors were against the Cowboys, Bengals and Falcons on Sunday and each game went the books way,” Scott said.

On Sunday night, another bettor had $240,000 on the Tennessee Titans as three-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers at snowy Lambeau Field. The Packers ended up winning 40-14 in a rout in the most-bet game of the day at BetMGM. Most of the action — 63% of the bets and 60% of the money — was on the Titans.

There was one bettor, though, who wagered $177,727 on the Packers moneyline at -170 and won $104,545.

Monster bet on Panthers moneyline

The largest reported wager of the day at BetMGM came in on the Carolina Panthers on the road against the Washington Football Team. The Panthers closed as one-point favorites and one bettor put down a whopping $500,000 on the Panthers moneyline at -115.

The Panthers jumped out to a 20-0 first-half lead and ended up holding on to win, 20-13. The Carolina victory yielded a return of $434,782 for the bettor.

Stoneback said Carolina-Washington was just one of two losers for the house on Sunday. The other was the Chicago Bears blowing out the Jacksonville Jaguars, 41-17. The Bears opened as 7.5-point favorites and closed as nine-point favorites. One bettor put down $148,000 on the Bears moneyline at -370 and won $40,000.

The large majority of the action came on the Chicago side, with 81% of the bets and 78% of the money wagered on the game at MGM going on the Bears. It proved to be an easy win for the public and a rare Week 16 loss for the sportsbook.

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