How Will the Nigerian Election Play Out? -- The Short Answer

Who are the candidates?

Goodluck Jonathan, 57 years old, came to office in 2010 after his predecessor Umaru Yar’Adua died in office. He ran for his first four-year term the following year, angering some northern supporters of his People’s Democratic Party who saw that as a break in an informal agreement to rotate every eight years between leaders from the largely Muslim north and the predominantly Christian south.

Mr. Jonathan’s critics say the former zoology professor from Nigeria’s swampy, oil-rich southeast hasn’t done enough to quell the Boko Haram insurgency that has killed more than 20,000 people in recent years and sent more than 1 million fleeing from their homes. Nor has his government rescued more than 200 schoolgirls who are still missing since being kidnapped from their boarding school in the volatile northeast last April.

Muhammadu Buhari, 72 years old, is running as the top candidate for the opposition All Progressives Congress. He has vowed to tackle corruption, but critics say his own record is tarnished by the heavy-handed tactics he employed during more than a year he spent as Nigeria’s military dictator in the 1980s. A Muslim from the north, he is expected to draw strong support from people there frustrated at the government’s lackluster campaign against Boko Haram.

Will the vote be free and fair?

Nigeria’s election commission has distributed voter identification cards to prevent some of the ballot-box stuffing and ghost voting that marred past contests. But it’s unclear whether the hundreds of thousands who fled their homes to escape Boko Haram militants will be able to vote efficiently, or whether security agencies can protect them from a group that has vowed to strike on election day.

What’s at stake?

Nigeria passed South Africa last year as the continent’s biggest economy. It’s stability and growth are important to the region’s fast but sometimes fragile economic ascent. A global fall in oil prices is weighing heavily on Nigeria, Africa’s top crude producer. The naira currency has hit record lows and businesses are struggling to find U.S. dollars to import goods. Many companies say they are delaying new investments until after they see whether the elections go smoothly.