Yahoo Finance No-deal Brexit would cost Northern Ireland economy £5bn by 2034
Northern Ireland’s economy could be dented by almost £5bn every year by 2034 if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said on Tuesday.
The figure, contained in a new analysis of government figures conducted by the CBI’s Northern Ireland branch, suggests that Northern Ireland could be one of the areas of the UK most affected by a no-deal Brexit.
In a statement bemoaning the lack of progress in Westminster, the CBI said that the figure was more than the total annual government spending on hospitals, GP surgeries and other health services in Northern Ireland.
“Such a significant shortfall would hit people’s jobs, livelihoods and living standards,” it said.
The region’s manufacturing and agri-food sectors employ thousands, and are both likely to be severely affected in a no-deal scenario, due to higher tariffs and trade costs, the confederation noted.
READ MORE: Fear swirls around Brexit hitting the lifeblood of Northern Ireland’s economy
Some 57% of Northern Irish goods are exported to the EU.
Progress on Brexit has stalled in Westminster, after prime minister Theresa May on Monday presented a “plan B” that many have said was virtually identical to the one that was voted down by a historic margin last week.
“CBI members across Northern Ireland are clear: if the new approach to finding a Brexit deal continues to be a game of who blinks first, the Northern Irish economy will pay the price,” said Angela McGowan, the head of the CBI’s Northern Ireland branch.
“The deadlock will only be broken by a genuine attempt by all MPs to find consensus and compromise, not stick to rusting red lines and political conditions. Like the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland is not — and cannot be — ready for no deal.”
READ MORE: Irish business groups warn against ‘devastating’ consequences of no-deal Brexit
The CBI arrived at its conclusion using government figures, which predict that Northern Ireland would see a 9.1% decrease in goods and services output in a no-deal scenario. This, it calculated, would result in an annual loss of output worth £5bn, in today’s prices, by 2034.
Tuesday’s statement is the latest in a line of increasingly strident statements from Irish business groups.
Last week, the CBI joined with IBEC, the leading Irish business organisation, to caution that a no-deal Brexit would have “devastating economic consequences” for the whole island of Ireland.
Both business groups also warned that a no-deal Brexit could hamper the 20 years of peace and stability ushered in by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement — a warning that has taken on increased significance in the wake of a car bombing and multiple security alerts in Derry/Londonderry in recent days.
In the 30 years before it was signed, clashes between unionists and republicans — known simply as the Troubles — took the lives of more than 3,600 people.
