Yahoo Finance Macron: no-deal still possible despite May's compromise offer
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has led other EU leaders in warning that Theresa May’s apparent move to take no deal off the table offers no guarantee that Britain will not crash out of the bloc on 12 April.
EU sources said Brussels instead would want to see a “positive majority” in the Commons for a solution before the summit on 10 April, putting the UK at a heightened risk of a no deal.
The EU27 states have repeatedly insisted that they expect the withdrawal agreement to be ratified or a new “credible plan” to emerge for them to agree to another Brexit delay when leaders meet at a crunch summit in eight days’ time.
With the British parliament yet to coalesce around any solution to break the impasse, there is concern in EU capitals that the prime minister, despite her pledge to secure a solution with the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, could still arrive at the summit without a clear way forward.
Downing Street’s strategy appears to put the UK on a path to an extension past 12 April, the cliff-edge agreed by the EU’s leaders at the recent summit, up to at least 22 May. This leaves open the risk of a no-deal Brexit right on the eve of European elections.
Denmark’s prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, expressed the bloc’s concerns, tweeting: “Since we could agree to postpone Brexit to right before EP [European Parliament] election given the approval of May’s agreement, we should also be patient IF there suddenly is a cross party way forward in UK. But is it too good to believe?”
Despite the concerns, Donald Tusk, the European council president, tweeted a conciliatory message amid the deepening anxiety. “Even if, after today, we don’t know what the end result will be, let us be patient,” he said.
And the European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, tweeted: “Good that PM Theresa May is looking for a cross-party compromise. Better late than never.”
In a statement after a seven-hour cabinet meeting, May said she would be seeking a further short Brexit delay to allow new cross-party talks to come to fruition.
The EU’s leaders, including Macron, reflected their concerns on Tuesday that they were being pushed into agreeing to extend article 50, and potentially even beyond 22 May, without the bloc’s conditions having been met.
The prime minister has previously sought to delay Brexit until 30 June, a demand rejected at the last EU summit. The UK is being seen as playing a blame game, sources said.
Macron, among others, is determined to avoid the UK remaining in the EU beyond 22 May unless British MEPs are elected and there is a clear view of a way out of the Brexit logjam.
“A long extension, implying the UK takes part in European elections and European institutions, has nothing easy or automatic about it,” the president said. “I say that again very strongly. Our priority must be the good functioning of the EU and the single market. The EU can’t be held hostage long-term by the resolution of a political crisis in the UK.
“The three-times rejection of the withdrawal agreement by the House of Commons and the rejection of all alternative plans now puts us on the path of a UK exit without a deal.”
He added: “As the European council decided in March, it’s now up to the UK to present a credible alternative plan backed by a majority before 10 April in order to avoid that. If the UK isn’t capable, almost three years after the referendum, of putting forward a solution that gets a majority, it will have decided itself, de facto, to leave without a deal. And we can’t avoid failure for the UK.”
The Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who was visiting Macron in Paris, told reporters the EU27 would not accept an extension “as just a recipe for further indecision”.
“There seems to be a sense in Westminster that, because they voted against no deal, no deal’s off the table,” he said. “It’s not off the table. A request for extension requires EU unanimity and that is far from guaranteed.”
(April 3, 2019) May and Corbyn meet
After Theresa May's statement on Tuesday, she is expected on Wednesday to meet with Jeremy Corbyn to try and agree a way forward that they could both support in the House of Commons. She spelled out that her withdrawal agreement had to be part of the agreement. The agreed plan will then be put to parliament later in the week, and taken to next week’s European Council meeting.
If they could not, she said, agree a way forward, parliament may be offered a chance to choose between a series of options for the future relationship. She said the government would be bound by what the house decides – but only if Labour was too.
(April 10, 2019) Plan or extension agreed by EU27?
If the UK parliament or government have significantly changed position, then a lengthy Article 50 extension may be required. EU leaders would decide how long at a summit on this date. Negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested there might be three reasons for the EU to grant a long extension: for a second referendum, a general election, or because parliament wants to again examine the political declaration. But there's no guarantee the EU27 would unanimously agree to this.
(April 12, 2019) Possible no deal departure?
If Theresa May's deal is not passed by parliament, then, with no other significant developments, this would be the date by international law that the UK leaves the EU without a deal. However she appears to have ruled out allowing this to happen.
(May 22, 2019) Possible departure with a deal?
If Theresa May's new proposal does pass parliament, this would be the scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU.
(May 23, 2019) European parliamentary elections
Unless there is a further longer extension of article 50, the EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. However, if Brexit has been further delayed, the UK would hold European elections on the Thursday.
(May 22, 2019) Conservative leadership election?
If Theresa May's deal passes parliament, she is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on 22 May, triggering a contest for the leadership of the Conservative party. There has been some suggestion though that she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October.
Earlier in the day, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, had also attempted to build the narrative that no-deal Brexit was very likely and becoming more likely by the day after the Commons rejected all the alternative solutions to May’s deal.
Those comments were echoed by the prime ministers of the Netherlands and Luxembourg. “We have to take into consideration a no-deal possibility – it’s a probability,” the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, told reporters.
“We are no longer looking for an exit, but rather an emergency exit,” added Luxembourg’s Xavier Bettel, who was hosting Rutte for no-deal talks in the duchy.
Mujtaba Rahman, from the Eurasia group consultancy, said: “The EU are being absolutely crystal clear that they will need to see a positive vote on a deal by next Wednesday’s leader’s summit if they are going to agree to an extension until 22 May. Without that the only option they will offer is a long extension with European elections - or no deal.”
Speaking in Brussels earlier in the day, Barnier said it was only a “positive majority” in the Commons in favour of a Brexit plan that could avoid a cliff-edge Brexit on 12 April.
“No deal was never our desired or intended scenario, but the EU27 is now prepared. It becomes, day after day, more likely,” he told an audience at a thinktank event, adding: “This is a serious crisis and no one can be pleased with what is happening in the UK currently.”
Three scenarios were set out by the EU official: agreement this week on May’s deal or a variant of it, no deal, or a long extension to article 50 requiring “a strong justification”.
A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole.
For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements.
Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union.
Barnier said an extension beyond the end of next month, which would require the UK to take part in European parliamentary elections, “would carry significant risks for the EU and therefore strong justification would be needed”.
He said businesses in the EU27 had warned Brussels “against the cost of extending uncertainty”. The UK prolonging its status as a member state while still seeking to leave with a negotiated deal “could pose a risk on our decision-making autonomy”.
“The option of no deal looks very likely,” Barnier later added.
