Novo Nordisk, Lilly Slide on Roche's Obesity Drug Study Data
Shares of several obesity-focused stocks dropped on Wednesday after Swiss pharma giant Roche RHHBY announced positive top-line results from an early-stage study on its experimental obesity drug CT-996.
Data from the early stage showed that this once-daily, orally-administered Roche drug resulted in a clinically meaningful placebo-adjusted mean weight loss of 6.1% within four weeks in obesity patients without type II diabetes (T2D).
This is the second positive data readout from Roche in less than three months. In May, management reported encouraging data from a phase Ib study on another obesity candidate, CT-388. Data from the study showed that patients who received this once-weekly, subcutaneously injected drug achieved a mean placebo-adjusted weight loss of 18.8%.
Both these incretin-based candidates were added to Roche’s pipeline from the acquisition of privately owned Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion in January. The acquisition also added CT-868, a once-daily, subcutaneously injected drug, which is being developed in a mid-stage study as a first-in-class treatment for glycemic control as an adjunct to insulin in patients with type I diabetes (T1D).
Per Roche, these candidates could also be expanded to other indications where incretins play a role, including cardiovascular and kidney diseases.
While shares of Roche increased 7.4% in response to CT-996 results, shares of other obesity drugmakers, Novo Nordisk NVO and Eli Lilly LLY, dropped 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively. Currently, these two companies are the only ones with FDA-approved obesity drugs in their portfolio — Novo markets Wegovy (semaglutide), while Lilly markets Zepbound (tirzepatide).
The obesity market has garnered much interest lately. Lilly and Novo have been seeing exponential sales growth of their obesity drugs, which is boosting revenues and profits. The companies even achieved a market cap north of $500 billion. However, these firms have been unable to cope with existing demand and are facing delays in fulfilling orders amid continued supply constraints and product shortages.
Per research conducted by Goldman Sachs, the obesity market in the United States is expected to reach $130 billion by the end of this decade. This is also evident from the fact that Lilly and Novo are investing heavily to optimize their production capacities and started evaluating multiple other novel obesity candidates in their pipeline.
Given the significant market potential of novel obesity treatments, smaller players are striving to grab a share of this pie as well.
In response to Roche news, shares of clinical-stage companies like Viking Therapeutics VKTX, Altimmune, and Structure Therapeutics, which are also developing their obesity drug candidates, declined 12.6%, 7.5%, and 14.2%, respectively.
Viking’s VK2735 is being evaluated as a subcutaneous injection and as an oral pill in a mid-stage study and an early-stage study, respectively. The drug has shown blockbuster potential, having demonstrated superior weight reduction capabilities in both clinical studies. Viking expects to advance both formulations of the drug into further development before 2024-end.
Both Altimmune and Structure Therapeutics are developing their respective pipeline candidates, pemvidutide and GSBR-1290, respectively, in mid-stage studies to treat obesity.
Obesity has become a global health problem as it can cause heart disease, diabetes, and stroke, leading to an exponential increase in demand for obesity medicines. All the diabetes drugs, including the ones being marketed, belong to a class of medicines called GLP-1, a hormone that helps in controlling blood sugar levels. They also help in reducing appetite and slow gastric emptying, aiding in weight management.
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