Yahoo Finance OraSure Technologies, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year
It's been a mediocre week for OraSure Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSUR) shareholders, with the stock dropping 15% to US$12.64 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. In addition to smashing expectations with revenues of US$48m, OraSure Technologies delivered a surprise statutory profit of US$0.01 per share, a notable improvement compared to analyst expectations of a loss. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for OraSure Technologies
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for OraSure Technologies from four analysts is for revenues of US$217.9m in 2021 which, if met, would be a substantial 48% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.22 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$186.4m and US$0.11 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts significantly increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase. It looks like the revenue growth will not be achieved without incremental costs.
It will come as a surprise to learn that the consensus price target rose 8.0% to US$19.29, with the analysts clearly more interested in growing revenue, even as losses intensify. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic OraSure Technologies analyst has a price target of US$32.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that OraSure Technologies' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 48% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.1%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that OraSure Technologies is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on OraSure Technologies. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple OraSure Technologies analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that OraSure Technologies is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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