Osborne Pledges More An 'Autumn Restatement'

So far it has been more of the Autumn Restatement than anything else - with the big headline numbers on road building and flood defences already known.

A third of the extra £2bn for the NHS already exists. Even the headline measures of what the tabloids will call a "White Van Man" Budget, on fuel duty and air passenger duty for children, are small fry.

Approving the principle of devolving corporation tax to Northern Ireland is a significant step in the context of the Democratic Unionist Party's possible parliamentary bargaining power.

The Scottish government, too, has shown its concerns.

And watch out for the impact of the Welfare Cap.

A series of fascinating discussions have gone on between the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Department for Work and Pensions.

Essentially the OBR will judge whether capped welfare (excluding pensions) can be kept under £119.5bn next year.

The big picture will be a fiscal announcement with no net giveaways - basically fiscally neutral - but perhaps even a small symbolic takeaway.

That is because, as we know, the cupboard remains bare even after four years of deficit reduction.

So the main story will be the big macroeconomic numbers.

There will be a lot to boast about, from the best growth figures in the G7 to the extraordinary jobs numbers.

But given that, the deficit numbers and poor tax receipts cancel any hope for proper pre-election goodies.

Nigel Lawson's pre-election income tax cut of 2p in the pound was never going to be repeated, except as a vague conditional Conservative Conference aspiration.

For there is a nagging doubt at the heart of the Conservatives. After a year of recovery and a rapid rise in the feel good factor (measured by consumer confidence) and rises in house prices, Conservative poll ratings have remained stubbornly anchored in the low 30s. The feel good factor is missing in action.

That rise in consumer confidence flattened out in the summer and is now dipping slightly. Black clouds are emerging from the continent.

More than that, the Miliband economic narrative on "cost of living crisis" remains strong, even if not all those who believe it will vote Labour.

Economic pessimists are fuelling UKIP's surge up the polls.

The sight of the Chancellor and Prime Minister apparently crowing about macroeconomic success has not been a vote winner in these circumstances.

It did not work in a thoroughly normal constituency such as Rochester and Strood.

So yes, the aim of this Autumn Statement will be to get the argument away from Europe and immigration and on to the economy.

But Mr Osborne will also try to modulate the boasts. The argument to be made will be a relative one.

People might not feel it everywhere, but a corner has been turned, and if they don't feel good, at least they might feel less bad than they would under "an untested Opposition with no economic plan".

That is more "feel better" than necessarily "feel good".